Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 72%▼ R +1
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (−0.1 D since Oct 25)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 68%▼ R +1
Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (−0.1 D since Oct 25)
D 68%, 68% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 26
Monday, October 26, 2026
- Calls changed
- 1
- Party changes
- 0
- New polls
- 18
- New FEC totals
- 0
- Compared with
- Oct 25
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 25. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 237.6 D · 197.4 R (−0.1 D since Oct 25)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 94%no change
Expected seats 238.5 D · 196.5 R (−0.1 D since Oct 25)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 70%▼ R +1
Expected seats 26.8 D · 23.2 R (0 D since Oct 25)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.D 76%no change
Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (−0.1 D since Oct 25)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8R +0.1
Forecast environment
D+9.0R +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Oct 25.
Every call change
1 race changed rating or favored party since Oct 25 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
New polls
18 polls new since Oct 25, in 11 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 6 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic congressional ballot | Focaldata for Financial Times | Oct 16–Oct 20 | 1,549 LV | D 53 · R 44 | D+9 | focaldata.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Focaldata for Financial Times | Oct 16–Oct 20 | 1,648 RV | D 51 · R 41 | D+10 | focaldata.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Focaldata for Financial Times | Oct 16–Oct 20 | 1,845 A | D 49 · R 40 | D+9 | focaldata.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Financial Times/Focaldata | Oct 16–Oct 20 | 1,845 A | Approve 34 · Disapprove 59 | −25 net | focaldata.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | New York Times/Siena College | Oct 12–Oct 19 | 3,494 RV | Approve 34 · Disapprove 60 | −26 net | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | CNN/SSRS | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 1,701 A | Approve 32 · Disapprove 67 | −35 net | documentcloud.org ↗ |
Fundraising
0 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 25. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 25.