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Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 29

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Calls changed
30
Party changes
10
New polls
40
New FEC totals
0
Compared with
Oct 28

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 28. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 76%▲ D +3

D50%RSep 1Oct 29

Expected seats 52.2 D · 47.8 R (+0.2 D since Oct 28)

D 76%, 76% Democratic.

D 72%▲ D +3

D50%RSep 1Oct 29

Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (+0.2 D since Oct 28)

D 72%, 72% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 97%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 29

Expected seats 237.1 D · 197.9 R (+0.1 D since Oct 28)

D 97%, 97% Democratic.

D 94%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 29

Expected seats 238.8 D · 196.2 R (+0.6 D since Oct 28)

D 94%, 94% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 70%▲ D +4

D50%RSep 1Oct 29

Expected seats 26.8 D · 23.2 R (+0.3 D since Oct 28)

D 70%, 70% Democratic.

D 77%▲ D +4

D50%RSep 1Oct 29

Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (+0.2 D since Oct 28)

D 77%, 77% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+8.4R +0.1

Forecast environment

D+8.7no change

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 28 → now.

Senate races

  1. U.S. Senate in MinnesotaLikely D → Solid D
  2. U.S. Senate in MichiganLean D → Likely D

Governor races

  1. Wisconsin GovernorLean D → Likely D
  2. Minnesota GovernorLikely D → Solid D
  3. Alabama GovernorSolid R → Likely R

Trifectas

States whose trifecta odds changed category
StateBeforeAfter
Alabama · R trifecta nowD trifecta <1% · R trifecta 97%D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 94%
Georgia · R trifecta nowD trifecta <1% · R trifecta 41%D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 40%
South Carolina · R trifecta nowD trifecta <1% · R trifecta 95%D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 94%
WisconsinD trifecta 58% · R trifecta 2%D trifecta 71% · R trifecta 1%

Every call change

30 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 28 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Senate 2 changes

  1. U.S. Senate in MinnesotaLikely D → Solid D
  2. U.S. Senate in MichiganLean D → Likely D

Governors 3 changes

  1. Wisconsin GovernorLean D → Likely D
  2. Minnesota GovernorLikely D → Solid D
  3. Alabama GovernorSolid R → Likely R

Statewide offices 2 changes

  1. Nevada AuditorNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. Michigan Secretary of StateLikely D → Solid D

State legislatures 23 changes in 10 chambers

Maine House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-17Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Massachusetts House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. 22nd MiddlesexNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Michigan House of Representatives · 2 changes
  1. HD-62Likely R → Lean R
  2. HD-31Lean D → Likely D
Minnesota House of Representatives · 7 changes
  1. HD-34AToss-up → Lean D
  2. HD-33ALean R → Toss-up
  3. HD-14AToss-up → Lean D
  4. HD-32ALikely R → Lean R
  5. HD-37ALean D → Likely D
  6. HD-41ALean D → Likely D
  7. HD-26ALean D → Likely D
Minnesota State Senate · 5 changes
  1. SD-58Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. SD-32Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  3. SD-24Toss-up → Lean D
  4. SD-48Toss-up → Lean D
  5. SD-4Lean D → Likely D
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. State House District Sullivan 06Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New York State Assembly · 1 change
  1. AD-46Toss-up → Lean R
Rhode Island House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-53Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Texas House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-94Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Wisconsin State Assembly · 3 changes
  1. AD-30Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. AD-82Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  3. AD-51Lean D → Likely D

New polls

40 polls new since Oct 28, in 24 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in AlabamaBlueprint PollingOct 22–Oct 24695 LVD 39.5 · R 47.8R+8chismstrategies.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)St. Pete Polls for Florida PoliticsOct 25–Oct 27916 LVD 44.7 · R 49R+4floridapolitics.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)The New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 19–Oct 25813 LVD 44.32 · R 50.35R+6nytimes.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganMitchell Research & Communications for CBS DetroitOct 26–Oct 27636 LVD 51 · R 44D+7cbsnews.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MinnesotaThe New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 19–Oct 26752 LVD 54.21 · R 40.31D+14nytimes.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MinnesotaVictory Insights for Michele Tafoya's campaignR sponsorOct 21–Oct 221,194 LVD 47.8 · R 44.4D+3irp.cdn-website.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MontanaConcord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD sponsorOct 22–Oct 23410 LVInd. 39 · R 38D+1dfer.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHigh Point UniversityOct 1–Oct 20620 LVD 54 · R 40D+14highpoint.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Suffolk University for USA TodayOct 21–Oct 26500 LVD 46.6 · R 43.8D+3suffolk.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in South CarolinaThe New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 19–Oct 26707 LVD 47.76 · R 48.47R+1nytimes.com ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasYouGov Blue for 254 LabsOct 21–Oct 261,000 LVD 51 · R 43D+8254labs.io ↗
Alabama GovernorBlueprint PollingOct 22–Oct 24695 LVD 44.9 · R 47.9R+3chismstrategies.com ↗
Show 28 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
Florida GovernorSt. Pete Polls for Florida PoliticsOct 25–Oct 27916 LVD 45.5 · R 47.8R+2floridapolitics.com ↗
Florida GovernorThe New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 19–Oct 25813 LVD 44.43 · R 48.36R+4nytimes.com ↗
Georgia GovernorState NavigateOct 23–Oct 27679 LVD 50 · R 47D+3articles.statenavigate.com ↗
Minnesota GovernorThe New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 19–Oct 26752 LVD 55.92 · R 37.88D+18nytimes.com ↗
Minnesota GovernorVictory Insights for Michele Tafoya's campaignR sponsorOct 21–Oct 221,194 LVD 50.1 · R 43.1D+7irp.cdn-website.com ↗
New York GovernorMarist UniversityOct 22–Oct 251,448 RVD 55 · R 41D+14maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
New York GovernorMarist UniversityOct 22–Oct 251,448 LVD 53 · R 42D+11maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
New York GovernorSiena UniversityOct 19–Oct 22807 LVD 54 · R 40D+14sri.siena.edu ↗
Ohio GovernorSuffolk University for USA TodayOct 21–Oct 26500 LVD 48 · R 44D+4suffolk.edu ↗
South Carolina GovernorThe New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 19–Oct 26707 LVD 44.24 · R 50.97R+7nytimes.com ↗
Texas GovernorYouGov Blue for 254 LabsOct 21–Oct 261,000 LVD 49 · R 46D+3254labs.io ↗
Wisconsin GovernorWick for League of American WorkersR sponsorOct 19–Oct 231,213 LVD 47.7 · R 44.6D+3wick.io ↗
Wisconsin GovernorMarquette University Law SchoolOct 14–Oct 22818 RVD 49 · R 46D+3law.marquette.edu ↗
Wisconsin GovernorMarquette University Law SchoolOct 14–Oct 22668 LVD 53 · R 46D+7law.marquette.edu ↗
Alabama Lieutenant GovernorCygnal for Alabama Daily News and Gray Media AlabamaR sponsorOct 16–Oct 17500 LVD 34 · R 50R+16wbrc.com ↗
Alabama Attorney GeneralCygnal for Alabama Daily News and Gray Media AlabamaR sponsorOct 16–Oct 17500 LVD 34 · R 51R+17wbrc.com ↗
Florida Attorney GeneralSt. Pete Polls for Florida PoliticsOct 25–Oct 27916 LVD 44 · R 49R+5stpetepolls.org ↗
New York Attorney GeneralSiena CollegeOct 19–Oct 22807 LVD 54 · R 39D+15sri.siena.edu ↗
Alabama Secretary of StateCygnal for Alabama Daily News and Gray Media AlabamaR sponsorOct 16–Oct 17500 LVD 34 · R 50R+16wbrc.com ↗
Michigan Secretary of StateGlengariff GroupOct 19–Oct 22600 LVD 51 · R 39D+12Wikipedia
Presidential approvalHarvard/HarrisOct 24–Oct 262,700 RVApprove 39 · Disapprove 59−20 netharvardharrispoll.com ↗
Presidential approvalThe Economist/YouGovOct 23–Oct 261,131 LVApprove 41 · Disapprove 58−17 netd3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
Generic congressional ballotLegerOct 23–Oct 251,037 AD 42 · R 36D+6leger360.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotCygnalOct 23–Oct 241,500 LVD 51.5 · R 43.1D+8cygn.al ↗
Presidential approvalProlificOct 21–Oct 221,118 RVApprove 36 · Disapprove 63−27 netprolific.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotClarity Campaign LabsOct 15–Oct 211,016 LVD 52 · R 44D+8claritycampaigns.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotBedrock Polling for Rainey CenterOct 14–Oct 201,279 RVD 52 · R 44D+8raineycenter.org ↗
Presidential approvalThe Rainey CenterOct 14–Oct 201,279 RVApprove 42 · Disapprove 58−16 netcdn.prod.website-files.com ↗

Fundraising

0 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 28. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 28.