Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 82%▲ D +2
Expected seats 52.7 D · 47.3 R (+0.1 D since Nov 1)
D 82%, 82% Democratic.D 78%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.6 D · 47.4 R (+0.2 D since Nov 1)
D 78%, 78% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Nov 2
Monday, November 2, 2026
- Calls changed
- 39
- Party changes
- 14
- New polls
- 77
- New FEC totals
- 0
- Compared with
- Nov 1
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Nov 1. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 99%no change
Expected seats 241.7 D · 193.3 R (−0.1 D since Nov 1)
D 99%, 99% Democratic.D 97%no change
Expected seats 243.4 D · 191.6 R (−0.1 D since Nov 1)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 83%▲ D +8
Expected seats 27.8 D · 22.2 R (+0.7 D since Nov 1)
D 83%, 83% Democratic.D 84%▲ D +4
Expected seats 28.2 D · 21.8 R (+0.5 D since Nov 1)
D 84%, 84% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8D +0.1
Forecast environment
D+9.7D +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Nov 1 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in MinnesotaSolid D → Likely D
Governor races
- Vermont GovernorNow D favoredLean R → Lean D
- Alaska GovernorLean D → Likely D
State legislative chambers
- New Hampshire State SenateLean R → Toss-up
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire · R trifecta now | D trifecta 4% · R trifecta 11% | D trifecta 9% · R trifecta 8% |
| Vermont | D trifecta 31% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 67% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
39 races changed rating or favored party since Nov 1 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in MinnesotaSolid D → Likely D
Governors 2 changes
- Vermont GovernorNow D favoredLean R → Lean D
- Alaska GovernorLean D → Likely D
State legislatures 34 changes in 15 chambers
Arkansas House of Representatives · 3 changes
Connecticut House of Representatives · 2 changes
Illinois House of Representatives · 1 change
- RD-48Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Maine House of Representatives · 5 changes
Nebraska Legislature · 1 change
- LD-4Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 5 changes
- State House District Hillsborough 42Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- State House District Strafford 04Toss-up → Lean D
- Merrimack 27Lean D → Likely D
- Merrimack 26Lean D → Likely D
- Merrimack 25Lean D → Likely D
New Hampshire State Senate · 5 changes
Ohio House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-44Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Ohio State Senate · 1 change
- SD-13Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Pennsylvania House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-13Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Rhode Island House of Representatives · 3 changes
South Dakota House of Representatives · 1 change
- LD-14Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Vermont House of Representatives · 2 changes
- Rutland-Windsor State HouseLean D → Likely D
- Windsor-2 State HouseLean D → Likely D
Vermont State Senate · 1 change
- Franklin SenatorialToss-up → Lean D
New polls
77 polls new since Nov 1, in 37 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 65 more
Fundraising
0 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Nov 1. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Nov 1.