Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 80%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.6 D · 47.4 R (+0.1 D since Oct 30)
D 80%, 80% Democratic.D 77%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.5 D · 47.5 R (+0.1 D since Oct 30)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 31
Saturday, October 31, 2026
- Calls changed
- 16
- Party changes
- 6
- New polls
- 63
- New FEC totals
- 4
- Compared with
- Oct 30
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 30. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 99%no change
Expected seats 241.5 D · 193.5 R (+0.2 D since Oct 30)
D 99%, 99% Democratic.D 97%no change
Expected seats 243.4 D · 191.6 R (+0.4 D since Oct 30)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 75%▲ D +1
Expected seats 27.2 D · 22.8 R (+0.1 D since Oct 30)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 80%no change
Expected seats 27.8 D · 22.2 R (+0.1 D since Oct 30)
D 80%, 80% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.6no change
Forecast environment
D+9.5no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 30 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- U.S. Senate in KansasNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- U.S. Senate in LouisianaSolid R → Likely R
Governor races
- Arizona GovernorSolid D → Likely D
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | D trifecta 95% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 96% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
16 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 30 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 3 changes
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- U.S. Senate in KansasNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- U.S. Senate in LouisianaSolid R → Likely R
Governors 1 change
- Arizona GovernorSolid D → Likely D
Statewide offices 3 changes
- Nevada Lieutenant GovernorToss-up → Lean D
- Nevada Secretary of StateLikely D → Solid D
- Nevada TreasurerLean D → Likely D
State legislatures 7 changes in 5 chambers
Illinois House of Representatives · 1 change
- RD-48Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Kansas House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-78Toss-up → Lean D
Maine House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-81Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
South Dakota House of Representatives · 1 change
- LD-14Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
63 polls new since Oct 30, in 34 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 51 more
Fundraising
4 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 30. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missi Hesketh Democratic | Missouri's 7th District | $65,740 | +$15,200 | $60,779 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Randall Terry Independent | Virginia's 7th District | $56,462 | +$10,978 | $12,246 | Sep 30 |
| Julie Fortier Democratic | Illinois's 12th District | $161,511 | +$2,450 | $33,644 | Oct 14 |
| Karen Ortiz Independent | New York's 12th District | $47,330 | +$1,062 | $13,926 | Oct 14 (was Jun 30) |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 30.