Democratic
Juliana Stratton
Lieutenant governor of Illinois (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.9M
- From individuals
- $4.9M
- Spent
- $4.8M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Illinois
Stratton is very likely to win: Stratton wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Stratton (D)
98%
chance of winning
Tracy (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+17.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- 1in our database
Stratton is very likely to win: Stratton wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Stratton (D)
97%
chance of winning
Tracy (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+16.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Don Tracy
Former chair of the Illinois Republican Party (2021–2024), former member of the Illinois Gaming Board (2015–2019), candidate for lieutenant governor in 2010, and brother-in-law of state Senator Jil Tracy
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $4.1M
- From individuals
- $570.9K
- Spent
- $3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.89 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Stratton | Tracy | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for Chicago News WeeklyD-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 1 | 569 LV | 49 | 36 | D+13 | D+11.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 1, 2026.
The state
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 12,694,798
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 13%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,511,942 two-party votes · D+11.1 · D+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2020
5,970,891 votes · D+17.1✓ Richard J. Durbin (D)54.9%
Mark C. Curran Jr. (R)38.9%
Willie L. Wilson (OTH)4.0%
Danny Malouf (L)1.3%
David F. Black (G)0.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
5,918,806 two-party votes · D+17.3 · D+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.7%
Donald Trump (R)41.3%
2016 President Vote in this state
5,236,744 two-party votes · D+18.0 · D+15.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.0%
Donald Trump (R)41.0%
2014
3,603,475 votes · D+11.3✓ Richard J. Durbin (D)53.5%
James D. "jim" Oberweis (R)42.7%
Sharon Hansen (L)3.8%
2008
5,329,883 votes · D+40.8✓ Richard J. Durbin (D)67.8%
Steve Sauerberg (R)28.5%
Kathy Cummings (G)2.2%
Larry A. Stafford (L)0.9%
2002
3,486,851 votes · D+22.7✓ Richard J. Durbin (D)60.3%
Jim Durkin (R)38.0%
Steven Burgauer (L)1.6%