Fusion voting
Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.
Vermont › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Vermont Lieutenant Governor
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (100%).
Gray is very likely to win: Gray wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gray (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rodgers (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+25.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- 7in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (100%).
Gray is very likely to win: Gray wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gray (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rodgers (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+28.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- 7in our database
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
Democratic
Molly Gray
Former lieutenant governor (2021–2023)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
RepublicanIncumbent
John Rodgers
Incumbent lieutenant governor (2025–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Vermont state offices
- −0.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.3Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -30.29 |
Polls
All 7 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gray | Rodgers | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | Oct 2–Oct 4 | 948 LV | 59 | 32 | D+27 | D+27.5 |
| State Navigate | Oct 2–Oct 4 | 948 LV | 56 | 30 | D+26 | D+27.5 |
| Braun Research/Vermont Public | Sep 10–Sep 21 | 817 RV | 43 | 35 | D+8 | D+15.0 |
| Braun Research/Vermont Public | Sep 10–Sep 21 | 732 LV | 46 | 37 | D+9 | D+15.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 829 LV | 54 | 35 | D+19 | D+21.6 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 15–Jul 20 | 954 LV | 49 | 29 | D+20 | D+27.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 887 LV | 45 | 29 | D+16 | D+23.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 4, 2026.
The state
Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 647,106
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024
352,414 votes · R+1.8✓ John S Rodgers (R)48.8%
David Zuckerman (D)47.1%
Ian G Diamondstone (OTH)3.9%
2024 President Vote in this state
355,186 two-party votes · D+32.8 · D+34.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.4%
Donald Trump (R)33.6%
2022
278,655 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ David Zuckerman (OTH)53.9%
Joe Benning (R)42.6%
Ian G. Diamondstone (OTH)2.9%
2020
356,198 votes · D+7.6✓ Molly Gray (D)51.3%
Scott Milne (R)44.1%
Cris Ericson (OTH)2.2%
Wayne Billado III (OTH)1.4%
Ralph Corbo (OTH)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
355,524 two-party votes · D+36.6 · D+32.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.3%
Donald Trump (R)31.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
273,942 two-party votes · D+30.4 · D+28.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.2%
Donald Trump (R)34.8%