Democratic
Rhode Island › Rhode Island House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island House District 27
Coburn is clearly favored to win: Coburn wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Coburn (D)
91%
chance of winning
Almagno (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+9.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Coburn is clearly favored to win: Coburn wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Coburn (D)
80%
chance of winning
Almagno (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+8.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Rhode Island state offices
- +3.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+13.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 24.41 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 17,531
- People per km²
- 1,271
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,547 votes · D+20.2✓ Patricia A Serpa (D)60.1%
Andrew N Kowalski (R)39.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,490 two-party votes · R+3.1 · R+1.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%
2022
5,480 votes · D+17.4✓ Patricia A Serpa (D)58.7%
Andrew N Kowalski (R)41.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,137 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Patricia A Serpa (D)94.6%
Writein (—)5.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
7,382 two-party votes · D+2.8 · R+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,177 two-party votes · R+3.0 · R+5.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.5%