Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 108
FusionFlip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (56% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Weisberg (D)
56%
chance of winning
Callahan (R)
44%
- Average margin
- D+1.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (72%).
Weisberg is favored to win: Weisberg wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Weisberg (D)
72%
chance of winning
Callahan (R)
28%
- Average margin
- D+5.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Anne Weisberg
RepublicanIncumbent
Pat Callahan
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.75 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.22 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -10.22 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 27,051
- People per km²
- 165
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 6%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,697 votes · R+14.5✓ Patrick Callahan (R)57.2%
Anne Weisberg (D)42.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
16,308 two-party votes · R+2.7 · R+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.4%
Kamala Harris (D)48.6%
2022
10,333 votes · R+15.7✓ Patrick Callahan (R)57.8%
Jeff Ginsburg (D)42.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,770 votes · R+9.7✓ Patrick Callahan (R)54.8%
Danette Onofrio (D)45.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,160 two-party votes · D+1.4 · R+3.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.7%
Donald Trump (R)49.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,263 two-party votes · R+10.6 · R+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.7%