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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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Vermont › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Vermont Governor

Fusion

Scott is favored to win: Scott wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Janoo (D)
31%
chance of winning
Scott (R)
69%
Average margin
R+3.2
80% of outcomes
R+12 to D+5
Partisan lean
D+34
Polls
6in our database

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (65%).

Janoo is favored to win: Janoo wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.

Janoo (D)
65%
chance of winning
Scott (R)
35%
Average margin
D+5.7
80% of outcomes
R+14 to D+25
Partisan lean
D+34
Polls
6in our database

Range of outcomes

R+3.2R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+5.7R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How this race is decided

Legislature picks if no majority

If no candidate for governor wins more than half the vote, the legislature chooses among the top three in January. It has usually picked the candidate with the most votes.

Two-year governor's term

The governor is elected every two years, so the office is on the ballot in 2026.

Fusion voting

Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Janoo 31%Scott 69%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Janoo 65%Scott 35%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Vermont state offices
+0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+41.1Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+3.1Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Vermont and look-alikeplacesD+3.1Polling average5 polls, latest Oct 4R+4.0Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+3.2Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+5.6

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-30
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-40

Polls

R+10EvenD+10Avg. R+4.0Jun 23Nov 3
All 6 polls
PollsterDatesSampleJanooScottMarginAdjusted
State NavigateOct 2–Oct 4948 LV4346R+3R+6.1
Braun Research/Vermont PublicSep 10–Sep 21817 RV3242R+10R+8.7
Braun Research/Vermont PublicSep 10–Sep 21737 LV3444R+10R+8.7
University of New HampshireSep 17–Sep 21829 LV4943D+6D+6.8
University of New HampshireJul 15–Jul 20954 LV3344R+11R+12.9
University of New HampshireJun 18–Jun 23887 LV2742R+15R+20.2

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 4, 2026.

The state

Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+30.4D+28.1 vs. nation2020 presidentD+36.6D+32.1 vs. nation2024 presidentD+32.8D+34.3 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
647,106
Adults with a B.A.+
44%
White, no degree
52%of adults
  • White 90%
  • Hispanic 3%
  • Black 1%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024

362,841 votes · R+54.2
✓ Phil Scott (R)73.4%
Esther Charlestin (D)21.8%
Kevin Hoyt (OTH)2.6%
June Goodband (OTH)1.2%
Eli "poa" Mutino (OTH)0.7%

2024 President Vote in this state

355,186 two-party votes · D+32.8 · D+34.3 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.4%
Donald Trump (R)33.6%

2022

284,766 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Phil Scott (R)71.0%
Brenda Siegel (OTH)24.0%
Kevin Hoyt (OTH)2.1%
Peter Duval (OTH)1.7%
Bernard Peters (OTH)0.8%

2020

362,670 votes · R+42.9
✓ Phil Scott (R)68.5%
David Zuckerman (D)27.4%
Kevin Hoyt (OTH)1.3%
Emily Peyton (OTH)1.0%

2020 President Vote in this state

355,524 two-party votes · D+36.6 · D+32.1 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)68.3%
Donald Trump (R)31.7%

2018

274,055 votes · R+15.6
✓ Phil Scott (R)55.2%
Christine Hallquist (D)40.3%
Trevor Barlow (OTH)1.2%
Charles Laramie (OTH)0.8%
Cris Ericson (OTH)0.8%

2016

315,295 votes · R+9.0
✓ Phil Scott (R)52.9%
Sue Minter (D)44.2%
Bill "Spaceman" Lee (L)2.8%

2016 President Vote in this state

273,942 two-party votes · D+30.4 · D+28.1 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.2%
Donald Trump (R)34.8%

2014

192,365 votes · D+1.4
✓ Peter Shumlin (D)46.5%
Scott Milne (R)45.3%
Dan Feliciano (L)4.4%
Emily Peyton (I)1.6%
Peter Diamondstone (LU)0.9%