DemocraticIncumbent
Maura Healey
Incumbent governor (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Massachusetts › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts Governor
Healey is very likely to win: Healey wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Healey (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Minogue (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+25.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+28
- Polls
- 11in our database
Healey is very likely to win: Healey wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Healey (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Minogue (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+27.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+28
- Polls
- 11in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Mike Minogue
Former CEO of Abiomed
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.35 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.35 |
Polls
All 11 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Healey | Minogue | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC Polling Group | Sep 14–Sep 22 | 800 LV | 51 | 30 | D+21 | D+25.3 |
| MassINC Polling Group | Sep 14–Sep 22 | 800 LV | 54 | 32 | D+22 | D+25.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 564 LV | 54 | 38 | D+16 | D+17.7 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 20–Aug 24 | 881 LV | 54 | 30 | D+24 | D+29.9 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov for WCVB | Aug 5–Aug 12 | 800 RV | 53 | 33 | D+20 | D+23.8 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 623 LV | 51 | 32 | D+19 | D+24.4 |
| Suffolk University for The Boston Globe | Jun 8–Jun 12 | 500 LV | 56 | 31 | D+25 | D+28.2 |
| Polity Research Consulting for the Retailers Association of Massachusetts | Apr 19–May 7 | 608 RV | 58 | 31 | D+27 | |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–Apr 20 | 599 LV | 52 | 32 | D+20 | |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 12–Feb 16 | 620 LV | 56 | 27 | D+29 | |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov for WCVB | Oct 21–Oct 29 | 800 A | 51 | 26 | D+25 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 22, 2026.
The state
Lean D+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,044,056
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 6%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,377,821 two-party votes · D+25.9 · D+27.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)63.0%
Donald Trump (R)37.0%
2022
2,485,796 votes · D+29.7✓ Healey (D)63.7%
Diehl (R)34.6%
Reed (L)1.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,549,404 two-party votes · D+34.2 · D+29.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.1%
Donald Trump (R)32.9%
2018
2,667,111 votes · R+33.6✓ Baker And Polito (R)66.8%
Gonzalez And Palfrey (D)33.2%
2016 President Vote in this state
3,086,089 two-party votes · D+29.3 · D+27.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)64.7%
Donald Trump (R)35.3%
2014
2,156,468 votes · R+2.0✓ Charlie Baker (R)48.4%
Martha Coakley (D)46.6%
Evan Falchuk (I)3.3%
Scott Lively (I)0.9%
Jeff McCormick (I)0.8%
2010
2,294,439 votes · D+7.1✓ Deval Patrick (D)48.5%
Charlie Baker (R)42.1%
Tim Cahill (I)8.0%
Jill Stein (G)1.4%
2006
2,217,147 votes · D+22.3✓ Deval Patrick (D)55.7%
Kerry Healey (R)35.4%
Christy Mihos (I)7.0%
Grace Ross (G)1.9%
2002
2,192,878 votes · R+5.1✓ Mitt Romney (R)49.8%
Shannon O'Brien (D)45.0%
Jill Stein (G)3.5%
Carla Howell (L)1.1%
Barbara Johnson (I)0.7%