Legislature picks if no majority
If no candidate for governor wins more than half the vote, the legislature chooses among the top three in January. It has usually picked the candidate with the most votes.
Vermont · 2026 forecast · New England region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Vermont in 2026
Vermont elects a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, its one member of the U.S. House, all 30 members of the State Senate and all 150 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: Governor · 5 statewide offices · 1 U.S. House seat · 2 legislative chambers.
- Governor
- R 69%D 65%Amanda Janoo vs. Phil Scott
- U.S. House
- 1.0 D · 0.0 R1.0 D · 0.0 RExpected seats of 1
- Vermont State Senate
- D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 30 of 30 seats up
- Vermont House of Representatives
- D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 150 of 150 seats up
- Lieutenant Governor
- D >99%D >99%Molly Gray vs. John Rodgers
- Attorney General
- D >99%D >99%Charity Clark vs. Ed Kemon
- Secretary of State
- D >99%D >99%Sarah Copeland Hanzas vs. Brooke Paige
- Treasurer
- Solid DSolid DDemocrats only in November
- Auditor
- D >99%D >99%Tim Ashe vs. Ivar Kronick
Trifecta
Divided government now
No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 31%
- Divided
- 69%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
Divided government most likely continues (69%); 31% chance one party wins a trifecta.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 65%
- Divided
- 35%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (65%).
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Lieutenant GovernorD flipD flip
● Molly Gray● John RodgersINC
Attorney General
● Charity ClarkINC● Ed Kemon
Secretary of State
● Sarah Copeland HanzasINC● Brooke Paige
Treasurer
● Mike PieciakINC● No RepublicanAlso: Lynn LaFleur (D)
Democrats only in November
Democrats only in November
D vs DAuditor
● Tim Ashe● Ivar Kronick
Ratings
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The Vermont environment
The environment Vermont's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Vermont state offices vs. the nation
- −0.1± 4.4 (80% range) · 2 polled state races
- Vermont state-office environment
- D+9.40.1 pts more Republican than the nation
The polled state races behind it
A candidate who has run far ahead of the seat's usual vote (a long-serving governor, say) counts less: much of that lead is personal, not the state's mood.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Vermont environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
1 at-large seat. The national House forecast.
1 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT-AL | ● Becca BalintINC● Gerald Malloy | D+39.3D+33.0 | D+34 | 5 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.
Vermont General Assembly
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Vermont State Senate
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 23 D – 7 R seats · 16 for control · D two-thirds supermajority >99%
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 23 D – 7 R seats · 16 for control · D two-thirds supermajority >99%
Vermont State Senate ratings
4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D10
Likely D1
Lean D0
Toss-up1
Lean R0
Likely R0
Solid R4
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Vermont House of Representatives
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 120 D – 30 R seats · 76 for control · D two-thirds supermajority >99%
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 120 D – 30 R seats · 76 for control · D two-thirds supermajority >99%
Vermont House of Representatives ratings
20 seats projected to flip: 20 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
22 seats projected to flip: 21 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D71
Likely D7
Lean D7
Toss-up4
Lean R1
Likely R0
Solid R17
Independent or other, settled: Lamoille-1 State House, Windham-2 State House
Solid D72
Likely D9
Lean D4
Likely R0
Solid R17
Independent or other, settled: Lamoille-1 State House, Windham-2 State House
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored. Every race.
Closest legislative races
Orange-1 State HouseGregory WilsonMichael TagliaviaFlip riskD flip53%Dem.70%Dem. Caledonia-3 State HouseDennis LaBountyBeth QuimbyFlip riskFlip risk2 seats55%Dem.54%Dem. Orange-Caledonia State HouseAiden OttermanTom OttermanFlip riskFlip risk56%Rep.55%Dem. Franklin-4 State HouseTamar BouchardMatthew WalkerFlip risk2 seats58%Rep.70%Rep. Franklin SenatorialAlexander BobellaRandy BrockFlip riskFlip risk2 seats59%Dem.56%Rep. Caledonia-1 State HouseDavid TuckerDebra PowersD flipD flip67%Dem.79%Dem.
Bennington-1 State HouseJonathan CooperCharles JewettR flip68%Dem.64%Rep. Washington-Orange State HouseMelissa BattahGina GalfettiD flipD flip2 seats69%Dem.79%Dem. Orleans-2 State HouseXavier StevensWoodman PageD flipD flip70%Dem.92%Dem. Rutland-Bennington State HouseJessica Van OortChris PritchardD flipD flip70%Dem.81%Dem. Addison-Rutland State HouseJonathan HescockJim CaseyD flipD flip77%Dem.92%Dem. Rutland-2 State HouseMarsha CasselTom Burditt2 seats77%Rep.62%Rep.
How Vermont votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Two-year governor's term
The governor is elected every two years, so the office is on the ballot in 2026.
Named multi-member districts
Districts are named after counties and towns ('Chittenden-Central'). Senate districts elect one to three senators and House districts one or two members; voters pick as many as there are seats.
Progressive Party
Vermont's Progressive Party holds legislative seats and caucuses with the Democrats, so its candidates are forecast on the Democratic side and its seats count toward that majority.
Fusion voting
Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.