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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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Rhode Island › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Rhode Island Governor

Foulkes is very likely to win: Foulkes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Foulkes (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Guckian (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+44.1
80% of outcomes
D+30 to D+59
Partisan lean
D+16
Polls
9in our database

Foulkes is very likely to win: Foulkes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Foulkes (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Guckian (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+45.2
80% of outcomes
D+31 to D+60
Partisan lean
D+16
Polls
9in our database

Range of outcomes

D+44.1R+75R+50R+25EvenD+25D+50D+75
D+45.2R+75R+50R+25EvenD+25D+50D+75

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Foulkes >99%Guckian <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Foulkes >99%Guckian <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Independent

Ken Block

Founder of the Moderate Party of Rhode Island, Moderate Party nominee for governor in 2010 and Republican candidate in 2014

Experience
No elected office

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Rhode Island state offices
−1.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+7.6Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+23.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+19.2Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Rhode Island andlook-alike placesD+18.3Polling average7 polls, latest Oct 11D+51.7Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+44.1Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+45.2

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation6.32
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40Avg. D+51.7Apr 16Nov 3
All 9 polls
PollsterDatesSampleFoulkesGuckianMarginAdjusted
Emerson College/WPRI-TVOct 8–Oct 11800 LV4410D+34D+57.8
Emerson College/WPRI-TVOct 8–Oct 11800 LV4812D+36D+57.8
Opinion Diagnostics for Block's campaignSep 23–Sep 25800 LV4119D+22D+40.3
Opinion Diagnostics for Block's campaignSep 23–Sep 25800 LV39——D+40.3
University of New HampshireSep 17–Sep 21598 LV4417D+27D+44.6
University of New HampshireAug 20–Aug 24750 LV4015D+25D+46.7
Emerson College/WPRI-TVAug 21–Aug 221,000 LV4518D+27D+38.8
University of New HampshireJun 18–Jun 23664 LV3822D+16D+28.2
Opinion Diagnostics for Block's campaignApr 13–Apr 16802 LV3316D+17

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.

The state

Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+16.6D+14.4 vs. nation2020 presidentD+21.2D+16.7 vs. nation2024 presidentD+14.2D+15.7 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
1,101,801
Adults with a B.A.+
38%
White, no degree
42%of adults
  • White 68%
  • Hispanic 18%
  • Black 5%
  • Asian 4%
  • Other / multiracial 6%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

499,562 two-party votes · D+14.2 · D+15.7 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%

2022

357,670 votes · D+19.7
✓ Daniel J McKee (D)57.9%
Ashley Marie Kalus (R)38.9%
Zachary Baker Hurwitz (OTH)1.3%
Paul A Rianna Jr (OTH)0.9%
Elijah J Gizzarelli (L)0.8%

2020 President Vote in this state

507,408 two-party votes · D+21.2 · D+16.7 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)60.6%
Donald Trump (R)39.4%

2018

376,401 votes · D+17.2
✓ Gina M Raimondo (D)52.6%
Allan W Fung (R)37.2%
Joseph A Trillo (OTH)4.4%
William H Gilbert (OTH)2.7%
Luis Daniel Munoz (OTH)1.7%

2016 President Vote in this state

433,068 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+14.4 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%

2014

323,316 votes · D+5.8
✓ Gina Raimondo (D)40.8%
Allan Fung (R)36.3%
Robert J. Healey (OTH)21.4%
Kate Fletcher (I)1.1%

2010

342,290 votes · R+18.6
✓ Lincoln Chafee (I)36.1%
John Robitaille (R)33.6%
Frank Caprio (D)23.0%
Ken Block (OTH)6.5%

2006

386,928 votes · R+2.0
✓ Donald L. Carcieri (R)51.0%
Charles J. Fogarty (D)49.0%

2002

332,056 votes · R+9.5
✓ Donald L. Carcieri (R)54.8%
Myrth York (D)45.2%

Also on the ballot in Rhode Island

U.S. SenateJack ReedRaymond McKay>99%Dem.>99%Dem.