Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 36
Haggan is favored to win: Haggan wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Foster (D)
21%
chance of winning
Haggan (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+6.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (48% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Foster (D)
48%
chance of winning
Haggan (R)
52%
- Average margin
- R+0.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Kimberly M Haggan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.18 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,371
- People per km²
- 52
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,993 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kimberly M Haggan (R)55.2%
Shelby D Wright (—)44.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,008 two-party votes · R+3.1 · R+1.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.5%
Kamala Harris (D)48.5%
2022
4,899 votes · R+19.5✓ David G Haggan (R)59.8%
Kristen M Card (D)40.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
3,633 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Michael F Brennan (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,717 two-party votes · R+0.4 · R+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Joe Biden (D)49.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,930 two-party votes · R+7.7 · R+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.2%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-19David UlrichRichard H Campbell98%Rep.93%Rep. HD-20Dani O'HalloranPatrick A JudeFlip risk84%Dem.55%Dem. HD-21Ambureen RanaFrank Joseph Casella>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-33Michael A BraysonKenneth Wade Fredette>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-35Debora S FarnhamJames E Thorne>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-37Alan Lee OrcuttReagan L Paul78%Rep.66%Rep. HD-38Kayla M.T. MillerBenjamin C Hymes88%Rep.82%Rep.