Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 81
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Easton (D)
52%
chance of winning
Wood (R)
48%
- Average margin
- D+0.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (58% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Easton (D)
58%
chance of winning
Wood (R)
42%
- Average margin
- D+1.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Peter C Wood
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.24 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 6,595
- People per km²
- 8
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 71%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,618 votes · R+0.8✓ Peter Conley Wood (R)50.4%
Joan S Beal (D)49.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,658 two-party votes · R+1.2 · D+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Kamala Harris (D)49.4%
2022
4,623 votes · R+8.8✓ H Sawin Millett Jr (R)54.4%
Daniel A Sipe (D)45.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,694 votes · D+13.1✓ Tavis Rock Hasenfus (D)56.6%
Joseph J Pietroski (R)43.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,804 two-party votes · D+1.7 · R+2.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,899 two-party votes · R+8.3 · R+10.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-73Daniel J SimondsMichael Soboleski97%Rep.87%Rep. HD-78Woodleigh H HughesRachel A HendersonFlip risk74%Rep.58%Rep. HD-79Brianna Fern LueckMichael J Lance99%Rep.94%Rep. HD-80—Ernest M Fitts IV>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-82Christopher Alfred LeweyCaleb J NessFlip risk69%Rep.54%Rep. HD-83Timothy J BeckerMarygrace Caroline CiminoFlip riskD flip60%Dem.61%Dem.