DemocraticIncumbent
Sabina Matos
Incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Rhode Island › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor
Matos is clearly favored to win: Matos wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Matos (D)
93%
chance of winning
Loughlin (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+19.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- 2in our database
Matos is favored to win: Matos wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Matos (D)
77%
chance of winning
Loughlin (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+12.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
John Loughlin
Former state representative from the 71st district (2005–2011) and nominee for Rhode Island's 1st congressional district in 2010
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Rhode Island state offices
- +5.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+15.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.84 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Matos | Loughlin | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WPRI-TV | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 800 LV | 44 | 45 | R+1 | R+6.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 598 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | D+4.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.
The state
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,101,801
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 5%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
499,562 two-party votes · D+14.2 · D+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%
2022
353,482 votes · D+8.5✓ Sabina Matos (D)51.2%
Aaron C Guckian (R)43.1%
Ross K McCurdy (OTH)5.5%
2020 President Vote in this state
507,408 two-party votes · D+21.2 · D+16.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.6%
Donald Trump (R)39.4%
2018
366,152 votes · D+36.0✓ Daniel J McKee (D)61.9%
Paul E Pence (R)29.1%
Joel J Hellmann (OTH)3.1%
Jonathan J Riccitelli (OTH)2.7%
Ross K McCurdy (OTH)2.6%
2016 President Vote in this state
433,068 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+14.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%