Democratic
New Hampshire › New Hampshire State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire State Senate District 7
Innis is favored to win: Innis wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Harned (D)
21%
chance of winning
Innis (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Innis is favored to win: Innis wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Harned (D)
34%
chance of winning
Innis (R)
66%
- Average margin
- R+3.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbentCandidate
Dan Innis
Incumbent
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanCandidate
Scott Maltzie
Professor at Lakes Region Community College
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.74 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 56,043
- People per km²
- 30
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
32,242 votes · R+11.0✓ Daniel Innis (R)55.5%
Stu Green (D)44.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
33,398 two-party votes · R+6.9 · R+5.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.4%
Kamala Harris (D)46.6%
2022
49,118 votes · R+9.2✓ Daniel E Innis (R)54.6%
Richard A Lobban Jr (D)45.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,730 votes · R+15.9✓ Harold F French (R)57.9%
Philip Spagnuolo (D)42.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
31,422 two-party votes · R+2.3 · R+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Joe Biden (D)48.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
27,366 two-party votes · R+8.0 · R+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.0%