400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire · 2026 forecast · New England region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire in 2026
New Hampshire elects a U.S. senator and a governor, all 2 members of the U.S. House, all 24 members of the State Senate and 386 of 400 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 2 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- D 94%D 91%Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu
- Governor
- R 94%R 74%Cinde Warmington vs. Kelly Ayotte + 1 more
- U.S. House
- 1.9 D · 0.1 R1.8 D · 0.2 RExpected seats of 2
- New Hampshire State Senate
- R 62%D 62%Chance of control · 24 of 24 seats up
- New Hampshire House of Representatives
- D 87%D 86%Chance of control · 386 of 400 seats up
U.S. House districts · New Hampshire
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Republican trifecta now
Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 4%
- Divided
- 86%
- Rep. trifecta
- 10%
Projected change: divided government is most likely (86%); 10% chance the Republican trifecta holds.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 19%
- Divided
- 75%
- Rep. trifecta
- 6%
Projected change: divided government is most likely (75%); 6% chance the Republican trifecta holds.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state.
The New Hampshire environment
The environment New Hampshire's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- New Hampshire state offices vs. the nation
- −1.1± 4.2 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
- New Hampshire state-office environment
- D+8.41.1 pts more Republican than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the New Hampshire environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
2 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
Manchester-Nashua
2 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH-1 | ● Stefany Shaheen● Anthony DiLorenzo | D+9.7D+5.8 | D+3 | 1 | ||
| NH-2 | ● Maggie GoodlanderINC● Lily Tang Williams | D+19.3D+15.4 | D+5 | 8 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
New Hampshire General Court
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
New Hampshire State SenateProjected flip
Dem.
38%
Rep.
62%
Avg. 12 D – 12 R seats · 13 for control · R supermajority now: 5% it holds
Dem.
62%
Rep.
38%
Avg. 14 D – 11 R seats · 13 for control · R supermajority now: 2% it holds
New Hampshire State Senate ratings
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
New Hampshire House of RepresentativesProjected flipProjected flip
Dem.
87%
Rep.
13%
Avg. 235 D – 165 R seats · 201 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 15%
Dem.
86%
Rep.
14%
Avg. 234 D – 166 R seats · 201 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 15%
386 of 400 seats up; 14 holdovers.
Full forecastNew Hampshire House of Representatives ratings
8 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 1 Ind.→R, 1 D→R, 1 Ind.→D. 7 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
8 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 2 Ind.→R, 1 D→R. 13 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D87
Likely D20
Lean D12
Toss-up16
Lean R14
Likely R19
Solid R35
Solid D65
Likely D30
Lean D21
Toss-up25
- Belknap 02risk
- Carroll 06risk
- Carroll 7
- Carroll 8
- Cheshire 10risk
- Grafton 06risk
- Hillsborough 29risk
- Hillsborough 36risk
- Hillsborough 42risk
- Merrimack 12risk
- Rockingham 01risk
- Rockingham 19risk
- Rockingham 31
- Rockingham 34
- Rockingham 35
- Rockingham 36
- Rockingham 38
- Rockingham 39
- Rockingham 40
- Strafford 06risk
- Strafford 07flip
- Strafford 08risk
- Sullivan 06risk
- Sullivan 7
- Sullivan 8
Lean R14
Likely R23
Solid R25
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
State House District Hillsborough 42Lee C. NyquistGerald GriffinFlip riskFlip risk3 seats50%Rep.59%Dem. State House District Rockingham 05Mark ValloneJohn ScullyFlip riskR flip51%Rep.82%Rep. Rockingham 31Peter BoudreauJess Edwards2 seats53%Rep.51%Dem. Rockingham 35Michelle StithJulius F. Soti53%Rep.50%Dem. Rockingham 36Paul BonzaniJD Bernardy53%Rep.50%Rep. State House District Hillsborough 29Judi L. LanzaJoe AlexanderFlip riskFlip risk3 seats53%Rep.53%Rep.
Rockingham 34Jade DeMioMark A. Pearson53%Rep.50%Rep. Rockingham 40Justin G. PackardLinda McGrath54%Rep.50%Rep. State House District Sullivan 06John R. CloutierDale GirardFlip riskFlip risk3 seats54%Dem.59%Rep. State House District Merrimack 12Mariana R. BeerBrian SeaworthFlip riskFlip risk2 seats54%Rep.58%Dem. Sullivan 7Lawrence A. SchisselMargaret M. Drye54%Dem.59%Dem. SD-9Matthew McLaughlinDenise RicciardiFlip riskFlip risk55%Rep.55%Dem.
How New Hampshire votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Two-year governor's term
The governor is elected every two years, so the office is on the ballot in 2026.