Democratic
New Hampshire › New Hampshire State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire State Senate District 11
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (82%).
Chandley is clearly favored to win: Chandley wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Chandley (D)
82%
chance of winning
McGough (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+6.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (82%).
Chandley is clearly favored to win: Chandley wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Chandley (D)
82%
chance of winning
McGough (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tim McGough
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.12 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.29 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.29 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 60,322
- People per km²
- 196
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
36,224 votes · R+1.9✓ Tim McGough (R)50.9%
Shannon E Chandley (D)49.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
37,218 two-party votes · D+6.1 · D+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.1%
Donald Trump (R)46.9%
2022
55,822 votes · D+2.6✓ Shannon E Chandley (D)51.3%
Gary L Daniels (R)48.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
69,556 votes · R+0.5✓ Gary L Daniels (R)50.2%
Shannon E Chandley (D)49.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
35,585 two-party votes · D+9.6 · D+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
30,605 two-party votes · R+1.8 · R+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.1%