Democratic
Dian McCarthy
Small business owner and former member of the Goffstown, New Hampshire school board
- Experience
- Local office
New Hampshire › New Hampshire State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire State Senate District 16
Murphy is favored to win: Murphy wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
McCarthy (D)
21%
chance of winning
Murphy (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Murphy is favored to win: Murphy wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
McCarthy (D)
30%
chance of winning
Murphy (R)
70%
- Average margin
- R+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
David DePuy
Candidate for state representative in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanIncumbent
Keith Murphy
Incumbent (2022-present)
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanCandidate
Anthony Clements
Member of the Raymond, New Hampshire school board
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.3 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.15 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.15 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 56,943
- People per km²
- 159
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
32,554 votes · R+13.4✓ Keith Murphy (R)56.6%
Michael York (D)43.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
33,178 two-party votes · R+7.9 · R+6.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Kamala Harris (D)46.1%
2022
50,554 votes · R+6.8✓ Keith Murphy (R)53.4%
June Trisciani (D)46.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
33,174 votes · D+3.6✓ Kevin J Cavanaugh (D)51.7%
Jason Syversen (R)48.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
32,589 two-party votes · R+3.1 · R+7.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Joe Biden (D)48.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,498 two-party votes · R+9.6 · R+11.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.2%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
SD-8David TrumbleJim Creighton90%Rep.82%Rep. SD-9Matthew McLaughlinDenise RicciardiFlip riskFlip risk55%Rep.55%Dem. SD-14Timothy T. WyattSharon M. Carson87%Rep.75%Rep. SD-15Tara ReardonDennis Blankenbeker>99%Dem.99%Dem. SD-17Robert LawlissHoward Pearl93%Rep.86%Rep. SD-20Pat LongPatrick Binder99%Dem.93%Dem. SD-23David ChildsBill Gannon97%Rep.92%Rep.