DemocraticIncumbent
Steve Simon
Incumbent secretary of state (2015–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Minnesota › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota Secretary of State
Simon is very likely to win: Simon wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Simon (D)
98%
chance of winning
Jude (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 2in our database
Simon is clearly favored to win: Simon wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Simon (D)
88%
chance of winning
Jude (R)
12%
- Average margin
- D+9.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Tad Jude
Former judge from the 10th judicial district (2011–2021), former Democratic state senator from the 48th district (1983–1989), and nominee for MN-3 in 2024
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.5Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+8.1Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.96 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 9.96 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Simon | Jude | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Sep 9–Sep 14 | 654 LV | 40 | 36 | D+4 | D+6.0 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Aug 13–Aug 17 | 661 LV | 41 | 34 | D+7 | D+10.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 14, 2026.
The state
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,739,445
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 7%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,176,011 two-party votes · D+4.3 · D+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2022
2,467,729 votes · D+9.2✓ Steve Simon (D)54.5%
Kim Crockett (R)45.4%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,201,142 two-party votes · D+7.3 · D+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2018
2,542,522 votes · D+9.0✓ Steve Simon (D)52.3%
John Howe (R)43.6%
William Denney (OTH)4.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,690,654 two-party votes · D+1.7 · R+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%