DemocraticIncumbent
Cisco Aguilar
Incumbent secretary of state
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Nevada › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Secretary of State
Aguilar is very likely to win: Aguilar wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Aguilar (D)
95%
chance of winning
Marchant (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+10.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Aguilar is clearly favored to win: Aguilar wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Aguilar (D)
84%
chance of winning
Marchant (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Jim Marchant
Former state assemblyman from the 37th district (2016–2018), nominee for Secretary of State in 2022, and perennial candidate
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.59 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Aguilar | Marchant | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 800 RV | 41 | 32 | D+9 | D+8.2 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 708 LV | 44 | 37 | D+7 | D+8.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 26, 2026.
The state
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,184,612
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 30%
- Black 9%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,456,402 two-party votes · R+3.2 · R+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%
2022
995,966 votes · D+2.4✓ Francisco "cisco" Aguilar (D)49.8%
Jim Marchant (R)47.5%
Janine Hansen (OTH)1.8%
Ross Crane (L)0.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,373,376 two-party votes · D+2.4 · R+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2018
929,431 votes · R+0.7✓ Barbara K Cegavske (R)50.3%
Nelson Araujo (D)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,051,318 two-party votes · D+2.6 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%