University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies

Polls

33 in 1 race

Grade

C+Accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (how)

House effect, 2026

D+1.0Against other polls, in today's forecast

House effect, past elections

D+1.0Against other polls of the same races

Based on 3 polls of 3 races taken in the last three weeks before elections from 2018 to 2022: they missed the final margin by 5.9 points on average, 0.6 points more than other polls of the same races.

Its polls run 1.0 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races; the forecast removes that before averaging.

In past elections its polls ran 1.0 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races; today's estimate starts from that.