Democratic
Tya Mathis-Coleman
Deputy treasurer
- Experience
- No elected office
Nevada › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Treasurer
Mathis-Coleman is favored to win: Mathis-Coleman wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Mathis-Coleman (D)
80%
chance of winning
Johnson (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+5.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Mathis-Coleman is favored to win: Mathis-Coleman wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Mathis-Coleman (D)
69%
chance of winning
Johnson (R)
31%
- Average margin
- D+3.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Drew Johnson
Founder of the Tennessee Center for Policy Research and nominee for Nevada's 3rd congressional district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.02 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Mathis-Coleman | Johnson | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 800 RV | 37 | 33 | D+4 | D+0.8 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 708 LV | 40 | 39 | D+1 | D+0.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 26, 2026.
The state
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,184,612
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 30%
- Black 9%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,456,402 two-party votes · R+3.2 · R+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%
2022
1,002,558 votes · D+1.8✓ Zach Conine (D)48.1%
Michele Fiore (R)46.4%
Margaret Hendrickson (OTH)2.0%
Bryan Elliott (L)1.6%
Cheryl Paul (—)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,373,376 two-party votes · D+2.4 · R+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2018
936,768 votes · D+0.7✓ Zach Conine (D)49.1%
Bob Beers (R)48.4%
Bill Hoge (OTH)2.5%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,051,318 two-party votes · D+2.6 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%