Democratic
Sandra Jauregui
Majority leader of the Nevada Assembly (2023–present) from the 41st district (2016–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Nevada › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Lieutenant Governor
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (62%).
Jauregui is favored to win: Jauregui wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Jauregui (D)
62%
chance of winning
Anthony (R)
38%
- Average margin
- D+2.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (74%).
Jauregui is favored to win: Jauregui wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Jauregui (D)
74%
chance of winning
Anthony (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+4.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Stavros Anthony
Incumbent lieutenant governor (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- −0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.36 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.36 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jauregui | Anthony | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 800 RV | 38 | 33 | D+5 | D+3.4 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 708 LV | 41 | 38 | D+3 | D+3.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 26, 2026.
The state
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,184,612
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 30%
- Black 9%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,456,402 two-party votes · R+3.2 · R+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%
2022
992,307 votes · R+3.8✓ Stavros Anthony (R)50.5%
Elizabeth "lisa" Cano Burkhead (D)46.7%
Javi "trujillo" Tachiquin (L)1.2%
William Hoge (OTH)0.8%
John "trey" Delap (OTH)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,373,376 two-party votes · D+2.4 · R+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2018
942,406 votes · D+7.1✓ Kate Marshall (D)51.6%
Michael Roberson (R)44.7%
Janine Hansen (OTH)2.5%
Ed Uehling (NPA)1.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,051,318 two-party votes · D+2.6 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%