The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government

Polls

1111 in 10 races

Grade

A−Accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (how)

House effect, 2026

D+3.2Against other polls, in today's forecast

House effect, past elections

D+0.8Against other polls of the same races

Graded as The Washington Post, its polling partner. Based on 14 polls of 11 races taken in the last three weeks before elections from 2016 to 2024: they missed the final margin by 2.7 points on average, 0.2 points less than other polls of the same races.

Its polls run 3.2 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races; the forecast removes that before averaging.

In past elections its polls ran 0.8 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races; today's estimate starts from that.