Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › California State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California State Senate District 4
Top twoDuarte is favored to win: Duarte wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Brandon (D)
39%
chance of winning
Duarte (R)
61%
- Average margin
- R+2.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Duarte is favored to win: Duarte wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Brandon (D)
23%
chance of winning
Duarte (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+7.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats (the even-numbered districts in 2026) are on the ballot each election.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jaron Brandon
Republican
Alexandra Duarte
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- California state offices
- −0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,056,118
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 52%
- Hispanic 36%
- Black 2%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
450,508 two-party votes · R+13.0 · R+11.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.5%
Kamala Harris (D)43.5%
2022
260,367 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Marie Alvaradogil (D)52.7%
Tim Robertson (D)47.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
478,986 two-party votes · R+5.5 · R+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Joe Biden (D)47.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
333,258 votes · R+14.3✓ James Nielsen (R)57.1%
Phillip Kim (D)42.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
367,419 two-party votes · R+8.2 · R+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.9%
2014 Earlier district lines
218,656 votes · R+27.3✓ Jim Nielsen (R)63.7%
C J Jawahar (D)36.3%