DemocraticIncumbent
Keith Ellison
Incumbent attorney general (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Minnesota › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota Attorney General
Ellison is very likely to win: Ellison wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Ellison (D)
95%
chance of winning
Schutz (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+11.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 8in our database
Ellison is clearly favored to win: Ellison wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Ellison (D)
84%
chance of winning
Schutz (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 8in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Ron Schutz
Former chairman of Robins Kaplan LLP, former military prosecutor and Captain at United States Army JAG Corps.
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.64 |
Polls
All 8 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ellison | Schutz | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 718 LV | 45 | 44 | D+1 | D+1.5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy for KARE & The Minnesota Star Tribune | Oct 5–Oct 7 | 800 LV | 48 | 40 | D+8 | D+8.7 |
| Morning Consult for The Daily AgendaD-sponsored | Oct 2–Oct 7 | 1,000 RV | 43 | 39 | D+4 | D+1.7 |
| KTSP/SurveyUSA | Sep 9–Sep 14 | 654 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 | R+1.4 |
| KTSP/SurveyUSA | Aug 13–Aug 17 | 661 LV | 43 | 43 | Even | D+1.6 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Jul 29–Aug 4 | 1,435 LV | 44 | 36 | D+8 | D+11.5 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Jul 15–Jul 20 | 1,387 LV | 42 | 38 | D+4 | |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Jun 11–Jun 16 | 1,440 LV | 44 | 37 | D+7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 12, 2026.
The state
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,739,445
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 7%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,176,011 two-party votes · D+4.3 · D+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2022
2,490,301 votes · D+0.8✓ Keith Ellison (D)50.4%
Jim Schultz (R)49.5%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,201,142 two-party votes · D+7.3 · D+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2018
2,551,772 votes · D+4.1✓ Keith Ellison (D)49.0%
Doug Wardlow (R)45.1%
Noah M Johnson (OTH)5.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,690,654 two-party votes · D+1.7 · R+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%