Democratic
Zack Filipovich
Accountant and former Duluth City Councilor (2014–2022)
- Experience
- Local office
Minnesota › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota Auditor
Filipovich is clearly favored to win: Filipovich wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Filipovich (D)
87%
chance of winning
Jensen (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 3in our database
Filipovich is favored to win: Filipovich wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Filipovich (D)
75%
chance of winning
Jensen (R)
25%
- Average margin
- D+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Scott Jensen
Former state senator from the 47th district (2017–2021) and nominee for governor in 2022
- Experience
- State legislature
Forward
Jay Reeves
Army veteran
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+8.3Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.17 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Filipovich | Jensen | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 718 LV | 41 | 40 | D+1 | D+1.6 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Sep 9–Sep 14 | 654 LV | 36 | 43 | R+7 | R+8.1 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Aug 13–Aug 17 | 661 LV | 39 | 39 | Even | D+1.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 12, 2026.
The state
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,739,445
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 7%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,176,011 two-party votes · D+4.3 · D+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2022
2,460,932 votes · D+0.4✓ Julie Blaha (D)47.5%
Ryan Wilson (R)47.1%
Tim Davis (OTH)3.6%
Will Finn (OTH)1.8%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,201,142 two-party votes · D+7.3 · D+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2018
2,533,940 votes · D+6.6✓ Julie Blaha (D)49.4%
Pam Myhra (R)43.2%
Michael Ford (OTH)5.3%
Chris Dock (L)2.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,690,654 two-party votes · D+1.7 · R+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%