Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 128
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (49% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Evans wins Nov 3
41%
Runoff Dec 1
21%
Sheppard wins Nov 3
38%
Including the runoff: Evans 51% · Sheppard 49% to win the seat. In a runoff, Sheppard wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+0.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (45% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Evans wins Nov 3
47%
Runoff Dec 1
16%
Sheppard wins Nov 3
36%
Including the runoff: Evans 55% · Sheppard 45% to win the seat. In a runoff, Sheppard wins 50% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+1.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Tyrone Evans
Republican
Trey Sheppard
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 56,320
- People per km²
- 12
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 17%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 51%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
27,804 votes · D+0.2✓ Mack Jackson (D)50.1%
Tracy Wheeler (R)49.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
28,665 two-party votes · R+4.3 · R+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.1%
Kamala Harris (D)47.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
16,313 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mack Jackson (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,053 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mack Jackson (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,257 two-party votes · D+0.5 · R+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,894 two-party votes · D+2.1 · R+0.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-123Hope BeardRob Leverett>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-124Melanie MillerTrey RhodesRunoff 1%99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-125Leonard HennessyGary RichardsonRunoff 1%99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-132Brian Prince—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-133—Danny Mathis>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-144—Dale Washburn>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-149Floyd GriffinRandy PetersRunoff 3%97%Dem.94%Dem. HD-155Joe PowersMatt Hatchett>99%Rep.99%Rep.