Democratic
Cyndi Munson
Minority leader of the Oklahoma House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 85th district (2015–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Oklahoma › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oklahoma Governor
Mazzei is clearly favored to win: Mazzei wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Munson (D)
9%
chance of winning
Mazzei (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+17.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mazzei is very likely to win: Mazzei wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Munson (D)
3%
chance of winning
Mazzei (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+26.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Mike Mazzei
Former Oklahoma Secretary of Budget (2019–2020), former state senator from the 25th district (2004–2016), and candidate for state treasurer in 2022
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oklahoma state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 27.69 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The state
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,028,634
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 16%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,535,812 two-party votes · R+34.9 · R+33.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.5%
Kamala Harris (D)32.5%
2022
1,153,284 votes · R+14.1✓ Kevin Stitt (R)55.4%
Joy Hofmeister (D)41.8%
Natalie Bruno (L)1.4%
Ervin Stone Yen (OTH)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,524,170 two-party votes · R+33.9 · R+38.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.9%
Joe Biden (D)33.1%
2018
1,186,385 votes · R+12.5✓ Kevin Stitt (R)54.3%
Drew Edmondson (D)42.2%
Chris Powell (L)3.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,369,511 two-party votes · R+38.6 · R+40.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.7%
2014
798,537 votes · R+15.3✓ Mary Fallin (R)57.6%
Joe Dorman (D)42.4%
2010
1,034,767 votes · R+20.9✓ Mary Fallin (R)60.4%
Jari Askins (D)39.6%
2006
926,462 votes · D+33.0✓ Brad Henry (D)66.5%
Ernest J. Istook (R)33.5%
2002
1,035,620 votes · D+0.8✓ Brad Henry (D)43.3%
Steve Largent (R)42.6%
Gary Richardson (I)14.1%