DemocraticIncumbent
Jack Reed
Incumbent U.S. senator (1997–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.6M
- From individuals
- $2.3M
- Spent
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Rhode Island › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Rhode Island
Reed is very likely to win: Reed wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Reed (D)
>99%
chance of winning
McKay (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+24 to D+40
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- 5in our database
Reed is very likely to win: Reed wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Reed (D)
>99%
chance of winning
McKay (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+40
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Raymond McKay
Former member of the Rhode Island Republican Party State Central Committee, former president of the Rhode Island Republican Assembly, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $196.1K
- From individuals
- $193.2K
- Spent
- $189.7K
- Cash on hand
- $6.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Independent
Michael Bahry
Theologian
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $124.7K
- From individuals
- $2.3K
- Spent
- $28.3K
- Cash on hand
- $96.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 13.32 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 13.32 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Reed | McKay | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WPRI-TV | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 800 LV | 59 | 25 | D+34 | D+35.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 595 LV | 53 | 33 | D+20 | D+23.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 20–Aug 24 | 750 LV | 51 | 31 | D+20 | D+25.7 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 664 LV | 52 | 35 | D+17 | D+21.1 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–Apr 20 | 556 LV | 52 | 34 | D+18 | D+22.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.
The state
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,101,801
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 5%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
499,562 two-party votes · D+14.2 · D+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%
2020
494,262 votes · D+33.2✓ John F. Reed (D)66.5%
Allen R. Waters (R)33.4%
2020 President Vote in this state
507,408 two-party votes · D+21.2 · D+16.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.6%
Donald Trump (R)39.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
433,068 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+14.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%
2014
316,359 votes · D+41.4✓ Jack Reed (D)70.7%
Mark S. Zaccaria (R)29.3%
2008
436,818 votes · D+46.8✓ Jack Reed (D)73.4%
Robert G. Tingle (R)26.6%
2002
323,582 votes · D+56.9✓ Jack Reed (D)78.4%
Robert G. Tingle (R)21.6%