Democratic
Phillip Ensler
State representative from the 74th district (2022–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Alabama › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama Lieutenant Governor
Wahl is very likely to win: Wahl wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ensler (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Wahl (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+19.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 1in our database
Wahl is very likely to win: Wahl wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Ensler (D)
3%
chance of winning
Wahl (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+17.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
John Wahl
Former chair of the Alabama Republican Party (2021–2026)
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alabama state offices
- −0.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.3Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -26.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ensler | Wahl | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research for Alabama Policy ActionR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 25 | 800 RV | 33 | 49 | R+16 | R+13.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 25, 2026.
The state
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,086,768
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 26%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,235,028 two-party votes · R+30.9 · R+29.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.4%
Kamala Harris (D)34.6%
2022
1,144,297 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Will Ainsworth (R)83.7%
Ruth Page-Nelson (L)15.6%
Write-In (—)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,290,794 two-party votes · R+25.8 · R+30.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.9%
Joe Biden (D)37.1%
2018
1,704,291 votes · R+22.6✓ Will Ainsworth (R)61.2%
Will Boyd (D)38.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,047,802 two-party votes · R+28.7 · R+31.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.6%