Democratic
Kimberly Ahern
Former prosecutor and Cannabis Control Commission chair
- Experience
- No elected office
Rhode Island › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island Attorney General
Ahern is very likely to win: Ahern wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ahern (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Gordon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+28.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+37
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ahern is very likely to win: Ahern wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ahern (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Gordon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+47
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Alan Gordon
Compassion Party nominee for attorney general in 2018
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Rhode Island state offices
- +3.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+13.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,101,801
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 5%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
499,562 two-party votes · D+14.2 · D+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%
2022
352,997 votes · D+23.1✓ Peter F Neronha (D)61.5%
Charles C Calenda (R)38.4%
2020 President Vote in this state
507,408 two-party votes · D+21.2 · D+16.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.6%
Donald Trump (R)39.4%
2018
343,681 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Peter F Neronha (D)79.8%
Alan Gordon (OTH)19.1%
Writein (—)1.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
433,068 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+14.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%