Legislature elected in odd years
Both chambers are elected in odd-numbered years; the next legislative election is in 2027.
New Jersey · 2026 forecast · Mid-Atlantic region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Jersey in 2026
New Jersey elects a U.S. senator and all 12 members of the U.S. House on November 3, 2026. The State Senate is next elected in 2027. The General Assembly is next elected in 2027.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · 12 U.S. House seats.
U.S. House districts · New Jersey
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Democratic trifecta now
Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- >99%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- >99%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state.
The New Jersey environment
The environment New Jersey's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- New Jersey state offices vs. the nation
- +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
- New Jersey state-office environment
- D+9.5In line with the nation
The polled state races behind it
No governor, statewide or legislative race in New Jersey is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the New Jersey environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
12 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent.
Newark-Jersey City
12 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-1 | ● Donald NorcrossINC● Damon Galdo | D+31.2D+29.7 | D+20 | — | ||
| NJ-2 | ● Zack Mullock● Jeff Van DrewINC | R+5.2R+2.9 | R+11 | — | ||
| NJ-3 | ● Herb ConawayINC● Michael McGuire | D+19.6D+17.7 | D+10 | — | ||
| NJ-4 | ● Rachel Peace● Chris SmithINC | R+23.2R+20.8 | R+28 | — | ||
| NJ-5 | ● Josh GottheimerINC● Sean Kirrane | D+20.0D+12.5 | D+4 | — | ||
| NJ-6 | ● Frank PalloneINC● Hillary Herzig | D+22.6D+17.0 | D+10 | — | ||
| NJ-7D flipD flip | ● Rebecca Bennett● Thomas Kean Jr.INC | D+6.1D+6.8 | Even | 2 | ||
| NJ-8 | ● Rob MenendezINC● No RepublicanAlso: Craig Honts (SWP), Da'Shone Hughey (I), Aristotle Eliopoulos (I) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+30 | — | |
| NJ-9 | ● Nellie PouINC● Rosie PinoAlso: Terrisa Bukovinac (I) | D+15.3D+12.0 | D+4 | — | ||
| NJ-10 | ● LaMonica McIverINC● Carmen Bucco | D+61.5D+61.4 | D+54 | — | ||
| NJ-11 | ● Analilia MejiaINC● Joe Hathaway | D+20.0D+19.4 | D+11 | — | ||
| NJ-12 | ● Adam Hamawy● Gregg Mele | D+34.3D+34.2 | D+27 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
How New Jersey votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Two Assembly members per district
Each of the 40 districts elects one senator and two Assembly members; voters pick up to two Assembly candidates.
Not on the ballot this year
These chambers hold regular elections in other years.
New Jersey State Senate
Next regular election: 2027 · 40 seats
25 D · 15 R
New Jersey General Assembly
Next regular election: 2027 · 80 seats
57 D · 23 R