Wisconsin · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Wisconsin State Assembly?

All 99 seats are on the ballot. 50 seats make a majority. 66 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are favored to control the Wisconsin State Assembly (79%), which would flip it from Republican control.

Democrats

79%

chance of control

Republicans

21%

Avg. D seats: 52.180% range 48–56
Avg. R seats: 46.980% range 43–51
Now: 45 D · 54 R99 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (66+ seats): under 1% each.

Democrats are favored to control the Wisconsin State Assembly (61%), which would flip it from Republican control.

Democrats

61%

chance of control

Republicans

39%

Avg. D seats: 50.680% range 44–57
Avg. R seats: 48.480% range 42–55
Now: 45 D · 54 R99 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (66+ seats): under 1% each.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 99 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D45

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AD-8
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AD-42
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AD-54
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AD-96

Likely D3

Lean D3

Toss-up2

Lean R2

Likely R6

Solid R38

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AD-4
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AD-27
AD-28
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AD-99

Solid D27

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Likely D19

Lean D5

Toss-up3

Lean R3

Likely R8

Solid R34

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Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Wisconsin

Milwaukee

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

AD-82Rico ComanchoBryson ReyesFlip riskFlip risk51%Dem.60%Rep. AD-30Kevin KnokeShannon ZimmermanFlip riskFlip risk52%Rep.52%Dem. AD-92Jeremiah FredricksonClint MosesFlip risk63%Rep.58%Rep. AD-85John KrollPatrick SnyderD flipD flip66%Dem.68%Dem. AD-22Dana GlassteinPaul Melotik71%Rep.70%Rep. AD-88Brandy TollefsonBen FranklinD flipD flip76%Dem.71%Dem. AD-61Ben BristBob DonovanD flipD flip77%Dem.80%Dem.

Most likely to flip

AD-21Dan J. BukiewiczDylan PfaffenbachD flipD flip96%to flip85%to flip AD-53Becky NicholsDavid DanielsD flipD flip95%to flip84%to flip AD-51Ben GruberTodd NovakD flipD flip81%to flip83%to flip AD-61Ben BristBob DonovanD flipD flip77%to flip80%to flip AD-88Brandy TollefsonBen FranklinD flipD flip76%to flip71%to flip AD-85John KrollPatrick SnyderD flipD flip66%to flip68%to flip AD-82Rico ComanchoBryson ReyesFlip riskFlip risk51%to flip40%to flip AD-30Kevin KnokeShannon ZimmermanFlip riskFlip risk48%to flip52%to flip AD-92Jeremiah FredricksonClint MosesFlip risk37%to flip42%to flip AD-22Dana GlassteinPaul Melotik29%to flip30%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

99 races, 9 without a contest between the major parties.

99 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
AD-1	● Renee Paplham● Joel KitchensINC	8%92% 14%86%	R+10.8R+10.5	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
AD-2	● Alicia Saunders● Shae SortwellINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.6R+18.5	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
AD-3	● Michael J. Goodwin● Ron TuslerINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.6R+18.5	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
AD-4	● Alexia Unertl● David SteffenINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+21.8R+23.9	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
AD-5	● Justin Schumacher● Joy GoebenINCAlso: David Schupbach (G)	3%97% 6%94%	R+14.4R+15.5	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
AD-6	● Shirley Hinze● Elijah BehnkeINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.2R+27.7	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
AD-7	● Karen KirschINC● Lee Whiting	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.9D+21.2	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
AD-8	● Ismael Luna● Angel Sanchez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+54.9D+55.8	Solid DSolid D	D+50	—
AD-9	● Priscilla PradoINC● Samuel Guerreo	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.9D+42.2	Solid DSolid D	D+37	—
AD-10	● Darrin MadisonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Robert Longwell-Grice (G)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+71	—
AD-11	● Sequanna TaylorINC● Shandowlyon Reaves	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+71.2D+80.3	Solid DSolid D	D+77	—
AD-12	● Russell GoodwinINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+60	—
AD-13	● Amy Zimmerman● Mike Morgan	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+25.3D+24.9	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
AD-14	● Angelito TenorioINC● AmyRose Murphy	99%1% 95%5%	D+20.1D+15.9	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
AD-15	● Stephen Tryon● Adam NeylonINC	15%85% 22%78%	R+7.4R+7.5	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
AD-16	● Kalan HaywoodINC● Alciro Deacon	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+72.1D+79.6	Solid DSolid D	D+75	—
AD-17	● Supreme Moore OmokundeINC● Charlene Abughrin	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+66.3D+73.1	Solid DSolid D	D+69	—
AD-18	● Margaret ArneyINC● Joel Richmond	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+66.8D+72.2	Solid DSolid D	D+68	—
AD-19	● Ryan ClancyINC● Yasmine B. Outlaw	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+63.5D+66.7	Solid DSolid D	D+62	—
AD-20	● Christine SinickiINC● Kyle Cleary	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.9D+24.4	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
AD-21D flipD flip	● Dan J. Bukiewicz● Dylan Pfaffenbach	96%4% 85%15%	D+13.0D+9.9	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
AD-22	● Dana Glasstein● Paul MelotikINC	29%71% 30%70%	R+4.0R+5.0	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
AD-23	● Deb AndracaINC● John Belanger	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.6D+34.2	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
AD-24	● Matt Brown● Dan KnodlINC	16%84% 26%74%	R+7.3R+5.9	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
AD-25	● Chris Able● Paul TittlINC	9%91% 13%87%	R+10.0R+10.7	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
AD-26	● Joe SheehanINC● John Belanger	97%3% 81%19%	D+14.6D+8.3	Solid DLikely D	D+3	—
AD-27	● No Democrat● Lindee BrillINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+30	—
AD-28	● Robin Lillesve● Robin KreibichINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.1R+25.0	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
AD-29	● Chris Danou● Treig PronschinskeINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+18.1R+21.6	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
AD-30Flip riskFlip risk	● Kevin Knoke● Shannon ZimmermanINC	48%52% 52%48%	R+0.3D+0.3	Toss-upToss-up	R+4	—
AD-31	● John Perryman● Tyler AugustINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.7R+17.4	Solid RSolid R	R+22	—
AD-32	● Greg Miller● Amanda NedweskiINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.5R+26.6	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
AD-33	● Maria Elena Bisabarros● Rick Stacey	1%99% 1%99%	R+19.2R+24.8	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
AD-34	● Merlin Van Buren● Rob SwearingenINC	3%97% 6%94%	R+15.2R+15.8	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
AD-35	● Elizabeth McCrank● Calvin CallahanINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.8R+25.5	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
AD-36	● No Democrat● Jeffrey MursauINCAlso: Shena Chapman (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+38	—
AD-37	● LaToya Bates● Mark BornINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.2R+23.1	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
AD-38	● Terri Wenkman● William PentermanINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.0R+25.3	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
AD-39	● Michael Skivington● Alex DallmanINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.7R+28.7	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
AD-40	● Karen DeSantoINC● Julie Helmer	98%2% 86%14%	D+16.0D+10.3	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
AD-41	● Zach Commons● Tony KurtzINC	4%96% 10%90%	R+14.6R+12.3	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
AD-42	● Maureen McCarvilleINC● Keith F. Miller	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+22.7D+19.2	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
AD-43	● Brienne BrownINC● Keith F. Miller	98%2% 87%13%	D+17.0D+10.9	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
AD-44	● Ann RoeINC● Ron Woodman	99%1% 95%5%	D+21.9D+16.5	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
AD-45	● Clinton AndersonINC● Jocelyn Jordan	99%1% 91%9%	D+24.2D+13.2	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
AD-46	● Joan FitzgeraldINC● John Donahue	99%1% 91%9%	D+17.7D+12.8	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
AD-47	● Randy UdellINC● Sandy Bakk	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+49.5D+47.2	Solid DSolid D	D+44	—
AD-48	● Andrew HysellINC● Mark Kjorlie	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+41.5D+41.0	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
AD-49	● John Rindy● Travis TranelINC	6%94% 12%88%	R+12.2R+11.3	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
AD-50	● Bill Oemichen● Jon Aleckson	99%1% 97%3%	D+19.4D+19.0	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
AD-51D flipD flip	● Ben Gruber● Todd NovakINCAlso: Nathan Tataje (OTH)	81%19% 83%17%	D+6.7D+9.0	Likely DLikely D	D+5	—
AD-52	● Lee SnodgrassINC● Reive Pullen	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+24.2D+19.8	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
AD-53D flipD flip	● Becky Nichols● David DanielsAlso: Rachael Dowling (I)	95%5% 84%16%	D+12.1D+9.4	Likely DLikely D	D+4	—
AD-54	● Lori PalmeriINC● Tim Paterson	99%1% 90%10%	D+17.6D+12.4	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
AD-55	● Alex Corrigan● Nate GustafsonINC	7%93% 11%89%	R+10.8R+11.8	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
AD-56	● Grace Abitz● Anthony Phillips	2%98% 2%98%	R+16.9R+21.8	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
AD-57	● Joey Marschall● Kevin Krentz	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.3R+29.7	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
AD-58	● Dennis D. Degenhardt● Bernie Newman	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+26.4R+32.3	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
AD-59	● Jack Holzman● Bradley Petersen	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.6R+43.2	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
AD-60	● No Democrat● Marty RyanAlso: Tiffany Brault (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+14	—
AD-61D flipD flip	● Ben Brist● Bob DonovanINC	77%23% 80%20%	D+5.5D+7.9	Lean DLean D	D+2	—
AD-62	● Angelina CruzINC● Mike Bellagio	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+35.7D+28.0	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
AD-63	● Eddie Phanichkul● Robert WittkeINC	4%96% 17%83%	R+14.4R+9.2	Solid RLikely R	R+14	—
AD-64	● Tip McGuireINC● Ed Hibsch	99%1% 89%11%	D+19.1D+11.9	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
AD-65	● Ben DeSmidtINC● Valerie Kretchmer	99%1% 90%10%	D+17.8D+12.2	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
AD-66	● Greta NeubauerINC● Gina Cefalu Paulick	99%1% 93%7%	D+18.9D+14.9	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
AD-67	● Indiana Thompson● David ArmstrongINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+21.3R+23.7	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
AD-68	● Elisha King● Rob SummerfieldINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.5R+33.1	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
AD-69	● Roger Hall● Karen HurdINCAlso: Josh Kelley (I)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.4R+36.9	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
AD-70	● Stephanie Stuve-Bodeen● Nancy VanderMeerINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.4R+20.8	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
AD-71	● Vinnie MiresseINC● Jeff Disher	98%2% 88%12%	D+17.5D+11.1	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
AD-72	● Christine Maltese● Scott KrugINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+17.9R+18.8	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
AD-73	● Angela StroudINC● Frank Kostka	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+24.9D+19.6	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
AD-74	● Paul Johnson● Chanz GreenINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.1R+17.4	Solid RSolid R	R+21	—
AD-75	● Keith Mogel● Duke TuckerINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.1R+26.0	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
AD-76	● Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford● Nina Chat	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+76.4D+84.3	Solid DSolid D	D+81	—
AD-77	● Renuka MayadevINC● Jane McCormick	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+67.2D+72.9	Solid DSolid D	D+69	—
AD-78	● Shelia StubbsINC● Henry Johnson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+62.9D+66.6	Solid DSolid D	D+63	—
AD-79	● Lisa SubeckINC● John Fons	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+70.3D+76.9	Solid DSolid D	D+73	—
AD-80	● Mike BareINC● Simran Arora	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+52.6D+54.1	Solid DSolid D	D+50	—
AD-81	● Alex JoersINC● Mark S. Maier	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+46.0D+42.3	Solid DSolid D	D+39	—
AD-82Flip riskFlip risk	● Rico Comancho● Bryson Reyes	51%49% 40%60%	D+0.2R+2.3	Toss-upToss-up	R+8	—
AD-83	● No Democrat● Dave MaxeyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+18	—
AD-84	● No Democrat● Chuck WichgersINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+39	—
AD-85D flipD flip	● John Kroll● Patrick SnyderINC	66%34% 68%32%	D+2.9D+4.4	Lean DLean D	R+1	—
AD-86	● Andy Wuethrich● John SpirosINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.5R+22.9	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
AD-87	● Bob Look● Brent JacobsonINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.1R+21.2	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
AD-88D flipD flip	● Brandy Tollefson● Ben FranklinINC	76%24% 71%29%	D+5.0D+5.2	Lean DLean D	Even	—
AD-89	● Ryan SpaudeINC● Bobby Lindsey	96%4% 77%23%	D+13.6D+7.1	Solid DLean D	D+2	—
AD-90	● Amaad Rivera-WagnerINC● Jessica Henderson	99%1% 95%5%	D+20.3D+16.2	Solid DLikely D	D+11	—
AD-91	● Jodi EmersonINC● Bruce Stabenow	98%2% 87%13%	D+17.0D+10.9	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
AD-92Flip risk	● Jeremiah Fredrickson● Clint MosesINC	37%63% 42%58%	R+2.4R+1.9	Lean RToss-up	R+7	—
AD-93	● Christian PhelpsINC● Michael Ayala	99%1% 92%8%	D+19.8D+13.5	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
AD-94	● Steve DoyleINC● Keith Purnell	91%9% 63%37%	D+10.0D+3.1	Likely DLean D	R+2	—
AD-95	● Jill BillingsINC● Cedric SchnitzlerAlso: Paul Michael Weber (I)	97%3% 82%18%	D+14.7D+8.6	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
AD-96	● Tara JohnsonINC● Jim Green	99%1% 93%7%	D+19.0D+14.1	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
AD-97	● No Democrat● Cindi DuchowINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+34	—
AD-98	● Matt Philibert● Jim PiwowarczykINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.7R+30.8	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
AD-99	● No Democrat● Barbara DittrichINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+33	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).