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Montana · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Montana House of Representatives?

All 100 seats are on the ballot. 51 seats make a majority. 67 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Montana House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
42.780% range 40–46
Avg. R seats
57.380% range 54–60
Now
42 D · 58 R100 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (67+ seats): under 1% each.

Republicans are very likely to control the Montana House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
38.980% range 33–44
Avg. R seats
61.180% range 56–67
Now
42 D · 58 R100 up this year

Chance Republicans win a two-thirds supermajority (67+ seats): 11%

42 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party58 R now

51 for control
51 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 100 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D35

Show 29 more

Likely D6

Lean D2

Toss-up0

Lean R2

Likely R4

Solid R51

Show 45 more

Solid D17

Show 11 more

Likely D16

Lean D7

Toss-up2

Lean R3

Likely R7

Solid R48

Show 42 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-4Paula KochShaun PandinaD flipFlip risk69%Dem.54%Rep. HD-20Steve KellerMelissa Nikolakakos74%Rep.70%Rep. HD-23Rebecca Bogden-RichardsEric Tilleman78%Rep.73%Rep. HD-42Sidney Chip FitzpatrickJeremiah JabsR flip78%Dem.60%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-4Paula KochShaun PandinaD flipFlip risk69%to flip46%to flip HD-20Steve KellerMelissa Nikolakakos26%to flip30%to flip HD-23Rebecca Bogden-RichardsEric Tilleman22%to flip27%to flip HD-42Sidney Chip FitzpatrickJeremiah JabsR flip22%to flip60%to flip HD-22Neal MillerJason Lorang12%to flip11%to flip HD-49Rebecca NoellCharlie Loveridge12%to flip11%to flip HD-48Tucker ColvinCurtis Schomer11%to flip14%to flip HD-57Becky EdwardsBob Crank10%to flip34%to flip HD-80Megan LaneKatie Fruits9%to flip29%to flip HD-46Denise JoyKim Welzenbach8%to flip33%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

51 for D control →← R two-thirds3035404550
51 for D control →← R two-thirds253035404550

Every race

100 races, 16 without a contest between the major parties.

100 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
HD-1
● Dakota V. Adams● Michelle Bianco
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.1R+51.7Solid RSolid RR+55—
HD-2
● Jane Maahs● Tom MillettINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.8R+53.3Solid RSolid RR+56—
HD-3
● Debo PowersINC● Derek Peachey
95%5%
78%22%
D+12.6D+7.4Solid DLean DD+5—
HD-4D flipFlip risk
● Paula Koch● Shaun Pandina
69%31%
46%54%
D+3.6R+0.9Lean DToss-upR+5—
HD-5
● Luca Welle● Braxton MitchellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.2R+44.5Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-6
● Darren Fix● Jim Riley
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+25.8R+32.0Solid RSolid RR+35—
HD-7
● Madison Evans● Courtenay SprungerINC
4%96%
9%91%
R+14.4R+13.4Solid RLikely RR+18—
HD-8
● Calvin Lime● Lukas SchubertINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.7R+42.3Solid RSolid RR+45—
HD-9
● Kate McLaughlin● Steven C KellyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.7R+42.2Solid RSolid RR+45—
HD-10
● Catherine C Allen● Terry FalkINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.2R+43.3Solid RSolid RR+48—
HD-11
● Maeve Kintzler● Ed ByrneINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.9R+49.1Solid RSolid RR+51—
HD-12
● Cindy L Bruckner● Tracy A SharpINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+28.2R+32.7Solid RSolid RR+35—
HD-13
● Dalton Bradford● Finley Warden
3%97%
3%97%
R+15.2R+20.3Solid RSolid RR+22—
HD-14
● Colleen Hinds● Paul FielderINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.4R+54.2Solid RSolid RR+57—
HD-15
● Thedis CroweINC● Ralph Foster
99%1%
91%9%
D+18.1D+13.9Solid DLikely DD+10—
HD-16
● Lona R Running WolfINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+14—
HD-17
● Chris Bechtold● Justin W. Cleveland
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.9R+42.6Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-18
● No Democrat● Bruce "Butch" Gillespie
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+53—
HD-19Flip risk
● Jane WeberINC● Hannah Trebas
93%7%
59%41%
D+12.3D+2.2Likely DToss-upR+3—
HD-20
● Steve Keller● Melissa NikolakakosINC
26%74%
30%70%
R+4.7R+4.8Lean RLean RR+9—
HD-21
● Lela Graham● Trevor P. Funseth
5%95%
6%94%
R+12.0R+15.5Likely RLikely RR+20—
HD-22
● Neal Miller● Jason Lorang
12%88%
11%89%
R+8.4R+11.9Likely RLikely RR+16—
HD-23
● Rebecca Bogden-Richards● Eric TillemanINC
22%78%
27%73%
R+5.7R+5.7Lean RLean RR+10—
HD-24
● Pam Carroll● Steve FitzpatrickINC
2%98%
6%94%
R+19.0R+15.4Solid RLikely RR+19—
HD-25
● Jerry Ferderer● Steve GistINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.6R+44.6Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-26
● Paul Jefferson● Russel MinerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.6R+37.5Solid RSolid RR+40—
HD-27
● Paul TussINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jordan Ophus (L)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)R+19—
HD-28
● No Democrat● Chisholm Christensen
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+56—
HD-29
● Tess Fahlgren● Valerie MooreINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.5R+50.1Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-30
● Jason Boeshore● Morgan ThielINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+55.2R+65.2Solid RSolid RR+69—
HD-31
● Natalie Oneal● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+5—
HD-32
● Mike FoxINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+9—
HD-33
● Tristan Veverka● Brandon LerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+49.4R+57.7Solid RSolid RR+62—
HD-34
● Jasmine Erickson● Jerry SchillingerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+60.0R+72.8Solid RSolid RR+76—
HD-35
● Natalie Parker● Gary ParryINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+52.6R+63.6Solid RSolid RR+66—
HD-36
● Benjamin Keyes● Ty Linger
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.6R+41.6Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-37
● Tracey Miller Karcher● Shane KlakkenINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.7R+51.5Solid RSolid RR+53—
HD-38
● No Democrat● Greg OblanderINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+68—
HD-39
● Melissa Smith● Kerri Seekins CroweINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+25.6R+30.3Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-40
● Gabriel Bradshaw● Mike VintonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.8R+44.1Solid RSolid RR+48—
HD-41
● Jade SooktisINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+5—
HD-42R flip
● Sidney Chip FitzpatrickINC● Jeremiah Jabs
78%22%
40%60%
D+5.9R+2.5Lean DLean RR+6—
HD-43
● Rudolf Haden● Larry BrewsterINC
2%98%
3%97%
R+16.9R+20.0Solid RSolid RR+24—
HD-44
● Mike Eaton● Katie ZolnikovINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.8R+33.4Solid RSolid RR+37—
HD-45
● Denise BaumINC● Bryce Walston
97%3%
80%20%
D+14.5D+8.1Solid DLikely DD+4—
HD-46
● Denise JoyINC● Kim Welzenbach
92%8%
67%33%
D+10.1D+4.1Likely DLean DEven—
HD-47
● James ReavisINC● John Maxwell
99%1%
90%10%
D+17.5D+12.4Solid DLikely DD+8—
HD-48
● Tucker Colvin● Curtis SchomerINC
11%89%
14%86%
R+9.1R+10.5Likely RLikely RR+14—
HD-49
● Rebecca Noell● Charlie Loveridge
12%88%
11%89%
R+8.5R+11.8Likely RLikely RR+18—
HD-50
● Mark Peters● Stewart Harris
1%99%
1%99%
R+18.3R+24.7Solid RSolid RR+29—
HD-51
● Precious McKenzie● Jodee EtchartINC
3%97%
11%89%
R+17.3R+12.0Solid RLikely RR+16—
HD-52
● Elizabeth Heald● Stacy ZinnINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+20.1R+21.8Solid RSolid RR+26—
HD-53
● Matthew J Hankins● Troy Charbonneau
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.1R+43.8Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-54
● Janine Coole● Lee DemingINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.9R+38.5Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-55
● Richard Gessling● Brad BarkerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.3R+31.8Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-56
● No Democrat● Fiona B NaveINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+62—
HD-57
● Becky Edwards● Bob Crank
90%10%
66%34%
D+9.5D+3.9Likely DLean DD+1—
HD-58
● Jamie L IsalyINC● Joshua Congleton
96%4%
76%24%
D+13.9D+6.8Solid DLean DD+4—
HD-59
● Katie Fire ThunderINC● Marc Greendorfer
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+30.9D+30.5Solid DSolid DD+26—
HD-60
● Alanah GriffithINC● Greg Leman
95%5%
75%25%
D+13.0D+6.7Likely DLean DD+3—
HD-61
● Rio Roland● Eric Jacobs
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+46.1D+47.8Solid DSolid DD+43—
HD-62
● Joshua A SeckingerINC● Esther Fishbaugh
98%2%
86%14%
D+17.0D+10.5Solid DLikely DD+7—
HD-63
● Peter StrandINC● Lawrence R Moore
99%1%
93%7%
D+20.0D+15.5Solid DLikely DD+11—
HD-64
● Brady Bremer● Daniel Ricardo Martinez
98%2%
94%6%
D+16.8D+15.3Solid DLikely DD+12—
HD-65
● Brian CloseINC● Joe Flynn
99%1%
95%5%
D+21.3D+17.3Solid DSolid DD+14—
HD-66
● Eric MatthewsINC● Owen Lang
99%1%
94%6%
D+21.1D+16.0Solid DLikely DD+12—
HD-67
● Logan Henke● Jedediah HinkleINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+19.5R+21.5Solid RSolid RR+26—
HD-68
● Jocelyn Kent● Randy Chamberlin
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.7R+39.2Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-69
● No Democrat● Trevor Walter
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+46—
HD-70
● Kobi Craddock● Shannon ManessINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.8R+40.2Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-71
● Scott DemaroisINC● Suzzann Nordwick
95%5%
68%32%
D+13.3D+4.4Likely DLean DD+2—
HD-72
● Donavon HawkINC● Michael Saul
>99%<1%
96%4%
D+24.0D+18.9Solid DSolid DD+15—
HD-73
● Jennifer LynchINC● Gerry Kennedy
99%1%
92%8%
D+21.5D+14.4Solid DLikely DD+10—
HD-74
● Marc J LeeINC● Trenin Bayless
99%1%
93%7%
D+21.9D+15.1Solid DLikely DD+11—
HD-75
● Patrick Sullivan● Mark ReinschmidtINCAlso: Greg Devries (L)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+29.2R+36.3Solid RSolid RR+37—
HD-76
● No Democrat● Trish SchreiberAlso: Shayne Morgan (I)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+46—
HD-77
● No Democrat● Jane GilletteINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+57—
HD-78
● Mark White● Randyn GreggINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.9R+53.0Solid RSolid RR+56—
HD-79
● Luke MuszkiewiczINC● Chiko Olson
97%3%
84%16%
D+15.4D+9.2Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-80
● Megan Lane● Katie Fruits
91%9%
71%29%
D+9.6D+5.1Likely DLean DD+2—
HD-81
● Janet Ellis● John J Looney SR
98%2%
82%18%
D+15.9D+8.6Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-82
● Pete ElverumINC● Clinton McKay
98%3%
83%17%
D+15.2D+9.1Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-83
● Joe CohenourINC● Aaron J Leas
99%1%
91%9%
D+18.5D+13.3Solid DLikely DD+10—
HD-84
● Tia Nelson● Roy Caldwell
1%99%
<1%>99%
R+21.6R+31.3Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-85
● Laura Jackson● Kim Dailey
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.1R+49.3Solid RSolid RR+51—
HD-86
● Archie Thomas● Wayne Rusk
1%99%
1%99%
R+22.8R+23.4Solid RSolid RR+25—
HD-87
● Bill Jones● Terry NelsonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.0R+47.3Solid RSolid RR+48—
HD-88
● Evan Schroedel● Greg OverstreetINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.0R+34.7Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-89
● Mark A ThaneINC● Lyn Hellegaard
97%3%
88%12%
D+14.6D+11.4Solid DLikely DD+9—
HD-90
● No Democrat● Jeff Stanek
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+40—
HD-91
● Shelly FyantINC● Charles Headley
98%2%
86%14%
D+16.5D+10.9Solid DLikely DD+8—
HD-92
● Monica Tranel● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+19—
HD-93
● Ben Davis● Roy Handley
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+29.9D+26.3Solid DSolid DD+24—
HD-94
● Robin Kendall● Greg Woodward
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.4D+25.9Solid DSolid DD+23—
HD-95
● Zooey ZephyrINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+65—
HD-96
● Bob CarterINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+19—
HD-97
● Melody J CunninghamINC● Michael P Hagestad
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+28.0D+24.3Solid DSolid DD+22—
HD-98
● Jonathan KarlenINC● Bryan Muzzana
>99%<1%
98%3%
D+24.2D+20.3Solid DSolid DD+14—
HD-99
● Tom FranceINC● Ryan Darling
99%1%
94%6%
D+20.6D+15.2Solid DLikely DD+13—
HD-100
● SJ HowellINC● Michael Daniel BowlesAlso: JC Windmueller (L)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+57.1D+59.8Solid DSolid DD+56—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).