Nevada · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Nevada State Senate?

11 of 21 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 11 seats make a majority. 14 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto. November candidates are not yet compiled for 3 races; they are forecast for the seat's current party against a generic challenger.

3 of 11 races have no compiled candidate list yet. Those seats are forecast for their current party against a generic challenger, marked TBD below.

Democrats are very likely to control the Nevada State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 12.880% range 12–13
Avg. R seats: 8.280% range 8–9
Now: 13 D · 8 R11 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (14+ seats): 3%

13 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party8 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Nevada State Senate (95%).

Democrats

95%

chance of control

Republicans

Avg. D seats: 12.380% range 11–13
Avg. R seats: 8.780% range 8–10
Now: 13 D · 8 R11 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (14+ seats): 5%

13 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party8 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 11 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties.

Solid D5

Likely D2

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R4

Solid D3

Likely D2

Lean D2

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Dotted: no candidate list yet; forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Nevada

Las Vegas

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

No race is closer than Likely (80%).

Most likely to flip

SD-8Marilyn Dondero LoopLaz Chavez10%to flip33%to flip SD-12Julie Ann PazinaRafael Arroyo6%to flip23%to flip SD-9Melanie ScheibleMaria Thompson4%to flip18%to flip SD-20Calvin SandovalDanielle Gallant2%to flip4%to flip SD-14——TBD1%to flip3%to flip SD-21James OhrenschallAl Rojas1%to flip6%to flip SD-13——TBD<1%to flip1%to flip SD-17——TBD<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

11 of 21 seats on the ballot; 10 holdovers (6 D, 4 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

11 races, 3 without a contest between the major parties.

11 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-2D vs D	● Edgar FloresINC● No Republican	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+34	—
SD-8	● Marilyn Dondero LoopINC● Laz Chavez	90%10% 67%33%	D+9.7D+4.1	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
SD-9	● Melanie ScheibleINC● Maria Thompson	96%4% 82%18%	D+14.3D+9.0	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
SD-10	● Fabian DonateINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+13	—
SD-12	● Julie Ann PazinaINC● Rafael Arroyo	94%6% 77%23%	D+12.2D+6.9	Likely DLean D	D+2	—
SD-13TBD	● No candidate● No candidate	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.1D+25.3	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
SD-14TBD	● No candidate● No candidate	1%99% 3%97%	R+17.6R+18.7	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
SD-16R vs R	● No Democrat● Lisa KrasnerINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+10	—
SD-17TBD	● No candidate● No candidate	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.3R+37.3	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
SD-20	● Calvin Sandoval● Danielle Gallant	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.2R+17.3	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
SD-21	● James OhrenschallINC● Al Rojas	99%1% 94%6%	D+20.3D+16.6	Solid DLikely D	D+12	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.