Oklahoma · 2026 forecast · Upper South region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Oklahoma in 2026

Oklahoma elects a U.S. senator and a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a treasurer, an auditor, all 5 members of the U.S. House, 24 of 48 members of the State Senate and all 101 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 4 statewide offices · 5 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. Senate: R >99%R >99%N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas vs. Kevin Hern
Governor: R 91%R 97%Cyndi Munson vs. Mike Mazzei
U.S. House: 0.1 D · 4.9 R0.1 D · 4.9 RExpected seats of 5
Oklahoma State Senate: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 24 of 48 seats up
Oklahoma House of Representatives: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 101 of 101 seats up
Lieutenant Governor: R >99%R 99%Kelly Forbes vs. T. W. Shannon
Attorney General: R >99%R 99%Nick Coffey vs. Jon Echols
Treasurer: Solid RSolid RNo Democrat on the ballot
Auditor: Solid RSolid RMelissa Capps unopposed

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
Legislature
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Oklahoma

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Republican trifecta now

Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 9%
Rep. trifecta: 91%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (91%); 9% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 3%
Rep. trifecta: 97%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (97%); 3% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

U.S. Senate

Solid RSolid R

● N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas● Kevin Hern

<1%>99%

Governor

Likely RSolid R

● Cyndi Munson● Mike Mazzei

9%91%

3%97%

Statewide offices

Lieutenant Governor

Solid RSolid R

● Kelly Forbes● T. W. Shannon

<1%>99%

1%99%

Attorney General

Solid RSolid R

● Nick Coffey● Jon Echols

<1%>99%

1%99%

Treasurer

Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)

● No Democrat● Cindy ByrdAlso: Kiefer Perry (L)

No Democrat on the ballot

Auditor

Uncontested RUncontested R

● No Democrat● Melissa Capps

Republican unopposed

Ratings

Likely R1

Governor

Solid R5

Solid R6

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Faded: no major-party opponent.

The Oklahoma environment

The environment Oklahoma's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Oklahoma state offices vs. the nation: −0.3± 4.2 (80% range) · 2 polled state races
Oklahoma state-office environment: D+9.20.3 pts more Republican than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Oklahoma environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

5 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid R5

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

Oklahoma City

5 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
OK-1	● John Croisant● Mark Tedford	5%95% 5%95%	R+12.1R+15.6	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
OK-2	● Brandon Wade● Josh BrecheenINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.7R+49.5	Solid RSolid R	R+55	—
OK-3	● Suzie Byrd● Frank LucasINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.0R+39.4	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
OK-4	● Mitchell Jacob● Tom ColeINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.8R+26.0	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
OK-5	● Jena Nelson● Stephanie BiceINC	3%97% 5%95%	R+11.6R+11.9	Solid RSolid R	R+20	1

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Oklahoma Legislature

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Oklahoma State Senate

Avg. 9 D – 40 R seats · 25 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 8 D – 40 R seats · 25 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

24 of 48 seats up; 24 holdovers.

Full forecast

Oklahoma State Senate ratings

No seat is projected to change parties.

Solid D6

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R1

SD-34

Likely R2

Solid R15

Solid D6

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R3

Solid R15

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Oklahoma House of Representatives

Avg. 24 D – 77 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 22 D – 80 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

Oklahoma House of Representatives ratings

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

No seat is projected to change parties. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D20

Likely D0

Lean D2

Toss-up3

Lean R2

Likely R2

Solid R72

Solid D16

Likely D3

Lean D1

HD-79

Toss-up2

Lean R3

Likely R4

Solid R72

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Closest legislative races

HD-83Dalton GauEric RobertsFlip risk54%Dem.70%Rep. HD-62Blake MunozDaniel PaeFlip riskFlip risk55%Dem.56%Rep. HD-84Jeffrey PerezTammy WestFlip risk59%Rep.74%Rep. HD-64Kathy SuttlesLouis JacksonD flip61%Dem.72%Rep. HD-81Megan Hornbeek AllenTroy Talley64%Rep.90%Rep. HD-95Tegan MaloneMax WolfleyD flipFlip risk67%Dem.57%Rep.

SD-34Amy HossainAaron Forst68%Rep.95%Rep. HD-75Joe WatkinsT. J. Marti69%Rep.84%Rep. HD-82Travis HeaddNicole Miller89%Rep.92%Rep. SD-32Booker T. NewtonCurtis Erwin90%Rep.94%Rep. HD-90Kymberly WardEmily Gise90%Rep.94%Rep. SD-42Chris JonesBrenda Stanley93%Rep.95%Rep.

How Oklahoma votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.

24 of 48 seats on the ballot; 24 holdovers (2 D, 22 R) serve until a later election.