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Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

South Carolina · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the South Carolina House of Representatives?

All 124 seats are on the ballot. 63 seats make a majority. 83 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the South Carolina House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
40.680% range 36–46
Avg. R seats
83.480% range 78–88
Now
35 D · 89 R124 up this year

Republican supermajority now (89 of 124 seats; 83 needed for two-thirds): 63% chance it holds · 37% chance it's broken.

35 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party89 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the South Carolina House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
42.580% range 36–49
Avg. R seats
81.580% range 75–88
Now
35 D · 89 R124 up this year

Republican supermajority now (89 of 124 seats; 83 needed for two-thirds): 45% chance it holds · 55% chance it's broken.

35 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party89 R now

63 for control
63 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 124 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D32

Show 26 more

Likely D3

Lean D1

Toss-up5

Lean R3

Likely R10

Solid R70

Show 64 more

Solid D28

Show 22 more

Likely D5

Lean D7

Toss-up2

Lean R8

Likely R14

Solid R60

Show 54 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

South Carolina

Columbia

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-110KJ AtwoodTom HartnettFlip riskD flip52%Rep.64%Dem. HD-98Sonja Ogletree SataniGreg FordFlip riskFlip risk55%Rep.58%Rep. HD-102Montez AikenHarriet HolmanFlip riskD flip56%Dem.62%Dem. HD-122Korey WilliamsBill HagerFlip riskD flip59%Dem.65%Dem. HD-12Jumelle BrooksDaniel GibsonFlip riskD flip59%Dem.64%Dem. HD-64Michele DemeryFawn PedalinoFlip risk65%Rep.52%Dem. HD-57Cynthia O FordLucas Atkinson70%Rep.72%Rep. HD-24Caroline AvingerBruce Bannister77%Rep.60%Rep. HD-116Clay MiddletonJames E TeepleD flipD flip79%Dem.76%Dem.

Most likely to flip

HD-116Clay MiddletonJames E TeepleD flipD flip79%to flip76%to flip HD-12Jumelle BrooksDaniel GibsonFlip riskD flip59%to flip64%to flip HD-122Korey WilliamsBill HagerFlip riskD flip59%to flip65%to flip HD-102Montez AikenHarriet HolmanFlip riskD flip56%to flip62%to flip HD-110KJ AtwoodTom HartnettFlip riskD flip48%to flip64%to flip HD-98Sonja Ogletree SataniGreg FordFlip riskFlip risk45%to flip42%to flip HD-64Michele DemeryFawn PedalinoFlip risk35%to flip52%to flip HD-57Cynthia O FordLucas Atkinson30%to flip28%to flip HD-24Caroline AvingerBruce Bannister23%to flip40%to flip HD-112Jenna ArsenaultJoe Bustos18%to flip30%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

63 for D control →← R two-thirds30354045505560
63 for D control →← R two-thirds30354045505560

Every race

124 races, 20 without a contest between the major parties.

124 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
HD-1
● Jasmine Williams● Bill WhitmireINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.9R+55.0Solid RSolid RR+59—
HD-2
● Candace Schutt● Adam Lewis DuncanINCAlso: Chris Des Marais (L)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.6R+38.8Solid RSolid RR+43—
HD-3
● Claiborne Linvill● Phillip BowersINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+17.6R+20.8Solid RSolid RR+27—
HD-4
● Derrick Kruse● Clay Counts
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+55.4R+65.6Solid RSolid RR+70—
HD-5
● David F Jones● Neal CollinsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.2R+44.5Solid RSolid RR+49—
HD-6
● Jennifer Bachner● April CromerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.0R+42.5Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-7
● Elizabeth W Cooley● Lee GilreathINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.6R+45.7Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-8
● Demetrius Carson● Don ChapmanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.9R+35.6Solid RSolid RR+40—
HD-9
● Johnny Estrich● Blake SandersINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.1R+36.0Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-10
● Thomas Stewart● Thomas BeachINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.9R+42.6Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-11
● Jessica Beasley● Craig A. GagnonINCAlso: E T Stone (UCP)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.5R+43.7Solid RSolid RR+48—
HD-12Flip riskD flip
● Jumelle Brooks● Daniel GibsonINC
59%41%
64%36%
D+1.7D+3.6Toss-upLean DR+1—
HD-13
● C Rauch Wise● John R. McCravy IIIINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.2R+42.7Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-14
● Michanna Tate● Rick ShealyAlso: Henry D Jones (UCP)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.2R+32.0Solid RSolid RR+37—
HD-15
● JA MooreINC● Heather HickmanAlso: Melissa Couture (L)
99%1%
97%3%
D+22.0D+19.7Solid DSolid DD+15—
HD-16
● Lynn Ramirez● Mark N WillisINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.2R+26.2Solid RSolid RR+32—
HD-17
● Rich Nicoloff● Mike BurnsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.5R+49.0Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-18
● Virginia B Maclure● Alan MorganINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.1R+40.3Solid RSolid RR+45—
HD-19
● Rachel Smith● Patrick B HaddonINC
2%98%
9%91%
R+16.9R+12.7Solid RLikely RR+18—
HD-20
● Polly Elbertse● Stephen D FrankINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+24.6R+26.8Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-21
● Dexter Reaves● Dianne MitchellINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+21.2R+21.8Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-22
● Josh Kendrick● Paul WickensimerINC
14%86%
23%77%
R+7.8R+7.2Likely RLean RR+14—
HD-23
● Chandra DillardINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+23—
HD-24
● Caroline Avinger● Bruce BannisterINC
23%77%
40%60%
R+5.6R+2.5Lean RLean RR+9—
HD-25
● Wendell K. JonesINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+23—
HD-26
● Jenny Desch● David MartinINCAlso: Kiral Mace (OTH)
4%96%
11%89%
R+12.9R+11.6Solid RLikely RR+18—
HD-27
● John MacCarthy● David VaughanINC
10%90%
15%85%
R+9.4R+9.9Likely RLikely RR+16—
HD-28
● Alan G Buckalew● Chris HuffINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+17.0R+18.3Solid RSolid RR+24—
HD-29
● Marina Franco● Dennis MossINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.2R+42.4Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-30
● Stephanie Holstein● Brian LawsonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.2R+51.2Solid RSolid RR+55—
HD-31
● Rosalyn Henderson-MyersINC● No RepublicanAlso: James A Jones Sr (UCP)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+37—
HD-32
● Irene Benson● Scott MontgomeryINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+20.5R+18.0Solid RSolid RR+23—
HD-33
● Clemson G Turregano● Travis MooreINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.4R+32.2Solid RSolid RR+37—
HD-34
● Saville Williams● Sarita EdgertonINC
1%99%
3%97%
R+20.7R+19.2Solid RSolid RR+24—
HD-35
● Tatiana Skipper● Bill ChumleyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.3R+30.3Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-36
● Virginia McLean● Rob HarrisINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.6R+31.8Solid RSolid RR+37—
HD-37
● Seth Sauer-Hart● Steven LongINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.2R+30.4Solid RSolid RR+35—
HD-38
● Tammy Hahn● Josiah MagnusonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+51.1R+58.1Solid RSolid RR+62—
HD-39
● Sherman Lott● Cal ForrestINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.1R+47.6Solid RSolid RR+52—
HD-40
● Engle Thompson● Joe WhiteINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+30.3R+30.8Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-41
● Annie E McDanielINC● Tibi Czentye
>99%<1%
97%3%
D+27.6D+20.5Solid DSolid DD+16—
HD-42
● Robert Larry Williams● Doug GilliamINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+21.6R+25.8Solid RSolid RR+31—
HD-43
● Alex Clark● Randy LigonINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.0R+24.3Solid RSolid RR+29—
HD-44
● Katie Crosby● Mike NeeseINC
7%93%
12%88%
R+10.8R+11.3Likely RLikely RR+17—
HD-45
● Nicole Ventour● Brandon NewtonINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+18.4R+18.0Solid RSolid RR+23—
HD-46
● Omar L McCrorey● Heath SessionsINC
17%83%
34%66%
R+7.0R+3.8Likely RLean RR+9—
HD-47
● Justin Bennett● Tommy PopeINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.9R+39.0Solid RSolid RR+44—
HD-48
● Rustin Terry● Brandon GuffeyINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+21.3R+18.1Solid RSolid RR+24—
HD-49
● John Richard C. KingINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+27—
HD-50
● Keishan M ScottINC● William Oden
97%3%
90%10%
D+16.0D+13.1Solid DLikely DD+8—
HD-51
● David WeeksINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+29—
HD-52
● Malcolm Taylor● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+21—
HD-53
● Bruce M Wallace● Richard Richie YowINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.3R+37.8Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-54
● Jason S. LuckINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+4—
HD-55
● Jackie HayesINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DR+1—
HD-56
● Jacqualyn Meadow● Tim McGinnisINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.2R+31.2Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-57
● Cynthia O Ford● Lucas AtkinsonINC
30%70%
28%72%
R+3.9R+5.7Lean RLean RR+11—
HD-58
● Sha-Ron E Jones● Jeff JohnsonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.2R+37.9Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-59
● Terry AlexanderINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+15—
HD-60
● Adrian Peguese Carter● Phillip LoweINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+23.4R+22.5Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-61
● Carol Goodman● Carla SchuesslerINCAlso: David Herndon (L)
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+28.0R+26.1Solid RSolid RR+31—
HD-62
● Robert WilliamsINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+6—
HD-63
● Kory Haskins● Jay JordanINC
2%98%
6%94%
R+16.7R+15.5Solid RLikely RR+21—
HD-64Flip risk
● Michele Demery● Fawn PedalinoINC
35%65%
52%48%
R+3.0D+0.6Lean RToss-upR+5—
HD-65
● Tanisha Baskin● Cody MitchellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.2R+39.7Solid RSolid RR+44—
HD-66
● Heather Hart● Jackie TerribileINC
6%94%
25%75%
R+13.0R+6.4Likely RLean RR+13—
HD-67
● Lisa Davey● Murrell SmithINC
1%99%
8%92%
R+20.7R+13.8Solid RLikely RR+19—
HD-68
● Judy Davies● Heather Ammons CrawfordINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.8R+32.7Solid RSolid RR+38—
HD-69
● Emery K Chaplin● Chris WootenINCAlso: Allen Broadus (L)
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+24.4R+20.9Solid RSolid RR+27—
HD-70
● Robert ReeseINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+16—
HD-71
● Julie Zimmerman● Nathan BallentineINC
2%98%
7%93%
R+18.6R+14.4Solid RLikely RR+21—
HD-72
● Seth RoseINC● Dixie Kvatek
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+51.1D+50.3Solid DSolid DD+45—
HD-73
● Chris R. HartINC● Allen Robertson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+55.5D+56.9Solid DSolid DD+52—
HD-74
● J Todd RutherfordINC● Collin Shelton
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+63.7D+68.4Solid DSolid DD+64—
HD-75
● Heather BauerINC● Tracy RobinsAlso: Joshua Parks (L)
98%2%
92%8%
D+18.5D+14.7Solid DLikely DD+8—
HD-76
● Leon HowardINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+60—
HD-77
● Kambrell Houston GarvinINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+45—
HD-78
● Beth BernsteinINC● Sonia PollardAlso: Angelo Joyner Sr (L)
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+34.2D+28.2Solid DSolid DD+23—
HD-79
● Hamilton R. GrantINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+51—
HD-80
● Benjamin E Brown● Kathy LandingINC
7%93%
11%89%
R+11.2R+12.3Likely RLikely RR+18—
HD-81
● Pete Swales● Charles HartzINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+20.5R+21.0Solid RSolid RR+26—
HD-82
● William Bill ClyburnINC● Suzy Spurgeon
93%7%
76%24%
D+12.2D+6.7Likely DLean DD+2—
HD-83
● Jason Payne● Bill HixonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.6R+33.5Solid RSolid RR+38—
HD-84
● Darnell Holston● Melissa OremusINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.9R+25.7Solid RSolid RR+31—
HD-85
● Steven J Asbill Jr● Jay KilmartinINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+21.0R+17.9Solid RSolid RR+24—
HD-86
● Malcolm Green● Tommy Paradise
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+29.2R+29.1Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-87
● Reid Beaman● Paula Rawl CalhoonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.8R+40.0Solid RSolid RR+45—
HD-88
● Jeremy Jones● John LastingerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+28.0R+30.4Solid RSolid RR+35—
HD-89
● Joe Madge● Micah CaskeyINC
14%86%
25%75%
R+7.7R+6.3Likely RLean RR+12—
HD-90
● Justin BambergINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+13—
HD-91
● Lonnie HoseyINC● Daniel Alexander
89%11%
74%26%
D+9.8D+6.3Likely DLean DD+1—
HD-92
● Byron Walters● Brandon CoxINC
3%97%
15%85%
R+15.5R+9.7Solid RLikely RR+14—
HD-93
● Jerry GovanINC● Alex Morris
97%3%
87%13%
D+14.9D+11.4Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-94
● Sally Hebert● Gil GatchINC
2%98%
10%90%
R+18.2R+12.5Solid RLikely RR+18—
HD-95
● Gilda Cobb-HunterINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+34—
HD-96
● Vivian Elston● Hunter Hackett
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.1R+36.1Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-97
● Cathy A Jaggars● Robby RobbinsINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.8R+23.3Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-98Flip riskFlip risk
● Sonja Ogletree Satani● Greg FordINC
45%55%
42%58%
R+1.0R+1.8Toss-upToss-upR+7—
HD-99
● Samuel Price● Jarrod Brooks
1%99%
4%96%
R+21.1R+17.3Solid RSolid RR+22—
HD-100
● Crystal Y Campbell● Sylleste DavisINC
1%99%
5%95%
R+19.0R+16.9Solid RSolid RR+21—
HD-101
● Roger K. KirbyINC● Arnie Borowsky
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+31.6D+23.7Solid DSolid DD+19—
HD-102Flip riskD flip
● Montez Aiken● Harriet HolmanINC
56%44%
62%38%
D+1.1D+2.7Toss-upLean DR+2—
HD-103
● Carl AndersonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+2—
HD-104
● George M Blumenthal● William BaileyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.7R+34.6Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-105
● David Wilson● Kevin HardeeINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.6R+36.6Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-106
● Marisa McCann● Val GuestINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.5R+34.9Solid RSolid RR+40—
HD-107
● Christine Giguere● Case BrittainINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+24.7R+22.0Solid RSolid RR+27—
HD-108
● Kathy Redwine● Lee HewittINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+26.2R+23.1Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-109
● Tiffany Spann-WilderINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+30—
HD-110Flip riskD flip
● KJ Atwood● Tom HartnettINC
48%52%
64%36%
R+0.5D+3.4Toss-upLean DR+2—
HD-111
● Wendell G GilliardINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+53—
HD-112
● Jenna Arsenault● Joe BustosINC
18%82%
30%70%
R+6.9R+5.3Likely RLean RR+11—
HD-113
● Courtney WatersINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+41—
HD-114
● Kelly Hough● Gary BrewerINC
8%92%
16%84%
R+10.3R+9.4Likely RLikely RR+15—
HD-115
● Nick Uricchio● Johnnie Garmon
94%6%
87%13%
D+11.9D+11.5Likely DLikely DD+6—
HD-116D flipD flip
● Clay Middleton● James E TeepleINC
79%21%
76%24%
D+5.8D+6.7Lean DLean DD+1—
HD-117
● Ashley Painter● Jordan PaceINC
2%98%
8%92%
R+16.9R+14.0Solid RLikely RR+19—
HD-118
● Bernie Scolaro● Bill HerbkersmanINC
3%97%
7%93%
R+15.1R+14.5Solid RLikely RR+19—
HD-119
● Leon StavrinakisINC● Lee Edwards
98%2%
93%7%
D+17.9D+14.3Solid DLikely DD+8—
HD-120
● Debbie Subera-Wiggin● Weston NewtonINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+19.1R+17.6Solid RSolid RR+22—
HD-121
● Shannon N. DeLoach● Shelley Gay Yuhas
99%1%
98%2%
D+19.5D+23.1Solid DSolid DD+19—
HD-122Flip riskD flip
● Korey Williams● Bill HagerINC
59%41%
65%35%
D+1.7D+3.7Toss-upLean DR+1—
HD-123
● Ann C. Shippy● Jeff BradleyINC
14%86%
24%76%
R+7.8R+6.9Likely RLean RR+12—
HD-124
● Shauna Bishop● Shannon EricksonINC
5%95%
12%88%
R+12.3R+11.3Solid RLikely RR+17—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).