Washington · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Washington House of Representatives?

All 98 seats are on the ballot. 50 seats make a majority. 66 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Washington House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 69.080% range 63–75
Avg. R seats: 29.080% range 23–35
Now: 59 D · 39 R98 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (66+ seats): 78%

59 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party39 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Washington House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 71.680% range 65–78
Avg. R seats: 26.480% range 20–33
Now: 59 D · 39 R98 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (66+ seats): 89%

59 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party39 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 49 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D.

Solid D30

Show 24 more

Likely D0

Lean D4

Toss-up1

LD-25risk

Lean R2

Likely R2

Solid R10

Solid D26

Show 20 more

Likely D6

Lean D4

Toss-up0

Lean R3

Likely R5

Solid R5

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Washington

Seattle

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

LD-25David BergMichael KeatonFlip riskD flip2 seats58%Dem.74%Dem. LD-35Jim PiersonDan GriffeyD flip2 seats64%Rep.65%Dem. LD-18Randi KnottStephanie McClintockD flipD flip2 seats65%Dem.72%Dem. LD-17Ben ChristlyKevin WatersD flipD flip2 seats73%Dem.88%Dem. LD-12Stacy WilloughbyBrian BurnettD flipD flip2 seats74%Dem.77%Dem. LD-14Chelsea DimasGloria MendozaD flipD flip2 seats76%Dem.84%Dem. LD-39Kathryn LewandowskySam Low2 seats79%Rep.63%Rep.

Most likely to flip

LD-14Chelsea DimasGloria MendozaD flipD flip2 seats76%to flip84%to flip LD-12Stacy WilloughbyBrian BurnettD flipD flip2 seats74%to flip77%to flip LD-17Ben ChristlyKevin WatersD flipD flip2 seats73%to flip88%to flip LD-18Randi KnottStephanie McClintockD flipD flip2 seats65%to flip72%to flip LD-25David BergMichael KeatonFlip riskD flip2 seats58%to flip74%to flip LD-35Jim PiersonDan GriffeyD flip2 seats36%to flip65%to flip LD-39Kathryn LewandowskySam Low2 seats21%to flip37%to flip LD-6Michaela KelsoAlan Nolan2 seats18%to flip24%to flip LD-31Stephen Szczurko-WaltonDrew Stokesbary2 seats15%to flip39%to flip LD-19Kevin MoynihanJim Walsh2 seats5%to flip11%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Top-two primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.

Two House positions per district

Each of the 49 districts elects one senator and two representatives, who run for separate positions (1 and 2). The forecast treats each position as its own race.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

49 races, 13 without a contest between the major parties.

49 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
LD-12 seats	● Davina DuerrINC● Maggie WangAlso: Shelley Kloba (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+46.7D+49.8	Solid DSolid D	D+46	—
LD-22 seats	● Angela Taylor● Andrew BarkisINCAlso: William Dehnel (OTH), Matt Marshall (R)	3%97% 14%86%	R+16.4R+10.6	Solid RLikely R	R+15	—
LD-32 seats	● Natasha HillINC● Tony Kiepe	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.2D+28.0	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
LD-42 seats	● Rob Tupper● Rob ChaseINCAlso: Hillary Pham (R), Trent Maier (R)	3%97% 6%94%	R+14.5R+15.1	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
LD-52 seats	● Zach HallINC● Michelle BennettAlso: Lisa Callan (D), Patrick Peacock (R)	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.5D+23.6	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
LD-62 seats	● Michaela Kelso● Alan NolanAlso: Jonathan Bingle (R)	18%82% 24%76%	R+6.6R+6.7	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
LD-7R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Andrew EngellINCAlso: Hunter Abell (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+33	—
LD-8R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Stephanie BarnardINCAlso: April Connors (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+24	—
LD-92 seats	● Karina Wallace● Mary DyeINCAlso: Joe Schmick (R)	4%96% 11%89%	R+14.0R+11.7	Solid RLikely R	R+16	—
LD-102 seats	● Clyde ShaversINC● Robert "Chili" HicksAlso: Dave Paul (D)	98%2% 90%10%	D+14.9D+12.3	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
LD-11D vs D2 seats	● David HackneyINC● No RepublicanAlso: Ashley Fedan (D), Steve Bergquist (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+39	—
LD-12D flipD flip2 seats	● Stacy Willoughby● Brian BurnettINCAlso: Mike Steele (R), Maggie Adams (D)	74%26% 77%23%	D+4.5D+7.0	Lean DLean D	D+2	—
LD-132 seats	● Juan "Jerry" Garcia● Tom DentINCAlso: Deanna Martinez (R), Joshua Thompson (R)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+28.2R+24.2	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
LD-14D flipD flip2 seats	● Chelsea Dimas● Gloria MendozaINCAlso: Deb Manjarrez (R), Ezequiel Morfín (D)	76%24% 84%16%	D+5.7D+10.2	Lean DLikely D	D+6	—
LD-152 seats	● Jack McEntire● Chris CorryINCAlso: Reedy Berg (R), Liz Hallock (OTH)	1%99% 4%96%	R+21.4R+17.4	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
LD-162 seats	● Kyle Palmer● Mark KlickerINCAlso: Skyler Rude (R), Derek Sarley (D)	4%96% 12%88%	R+12.9R+11.3	Solid RLikely R	R+16	—
LD-17D flipD flip2 seats	● Ben Christly● Kevin WatersINCAlso: Diana Perez (D), David Stuebe (R)	73%27% 88%12%	D+4.7D+11.4	Lean DLikely D	D+8	—
LD-18D flipD flip2 seats	● Randi Knott● Stephanie McClintockINCAlso: Deken Letinich (D), John Ley (R)	65%35% 72%28%	D+2.7D+5.5	Lean DLean D	D+2	—
LD-192 seats	● Kevin Moynihan● Jim WalshINCAlso: Terry Carlson (D), Joel McEntire (R)	5%95% 11%89%	R+12.6R+11.7	Solid RLikely R	R+15	—
LD-202 seats	● Andy Zahn● Peter AbbarnoINCAlso: Ed Orcutt (R), Evan Jones (D)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.6R+24.0	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
LD-21D vs D2 seats	● Strom PetersonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jason Moon (D), Lillian Ortiz-Self (D), Bruce Guthrie (L)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+38	—
LD-222 seats	● Beth DoglioINC● Don HewettAlso: Lisa Parshley (D), Jamie Keenan-deVargas (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.6D+41.3	Solid DSolid D	D+39	—
LD-232 seats	● Tara SimmonsINC● Lance ByrdAlso: Daria Ilgen (D), Greg Nance (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.9D+36.9	Solid DSolid D	D+34	—
LD-242 seats	● Adam BernbaumINC● Eric PrattAlso: Marcia Kelbon (I)	99%1% 95%5%	D+18.8D+16.1	Solid DLikely D	D+14	—
LD-25Flip riskD flip2 seats	● David Berg● Michael KeatonINCAlso: Cyndy Jacobsen (R), Jenn Marie Strickling (D)	58%42% 74%26%	D+1.5D+6.1	Toss-upLean D	D+1	—
LD-262 seats	● Adison RichardsINC● David OlsonAlso: Katy Cornell (R), Renee Hernandez Greenfield (D)	97%3% 90%10%	D+15.0D+12.5	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
LD-272 seats	● Laurie JinkinsINC● Carole Sue BraatenAlso: Jake Fey (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.3D+48.8	Solid DSolid D	D+46	—
LD-282 seats	● Mari LeavittINC● Kathy RichardsonAlso: Dan Bronoske (D)	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.4D+25.8	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
LD-29D vs D2 seats	● Melanie MorganINC● No RepublicanAlso: Krista Perez (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+22	—
LD-302 seats	● Jamila TaylorINC● Tiffany BowyerAlso: Kristine Reeves (D), Paul McDaniel (I)	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.9D+25.3	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
LD-312 seats	● Stephen Szczurko-Walton● Drew StokesbaryINCAlso: Josh Penner (R), John Bielka (D)	15%85% 39%61%	R+8.2R+2.6	Likely RLean R	R+7	—
LD-32D vs D2 seats	● Lauren DavisINC● No RepublicanAlso: Keith Scully (D), Danica Noble (D), Imraan Siddiqi (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+56	—
LD-33D vs D2 seats	● Edwin ObrasINC● No RepublicanAlso: Mia Gregerson (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+39	—
LD-34D vs D2 seats	● Brianna ThomasINC● No RepublicanAlso: Mary Anito (D), Joe Fitzgibbon (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+72	—
LD-35D flip2 seats	● Jim Pierson● Dan GriffeyINCAlso: Travis Couture (R), Maria Littlesun (D)	36%64% 65%35%	R+2.8D+3.5	Lean RLean D	Even	—
LD-36D vs D2 seats	● Julia ReedINC● No RepublicanAlso: Liz Berry (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+84	—
LD-37D vs D2 seats	● Sharon Tomiko SantosINC● No RepublicanAlso: Kelabe Tewolde (D), Jaelynn Scott (D), Evon McCorkle (I)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+77	—
LD-38D vs D2 seats	● Julio CortesINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jeff Kelly (OTH), Mary Fosse (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+21	—
LD-392 seats	● Kathryn Lewandowsky● Sam LowINCAlso: Ida Keeley (D)	21%79% 37%63%	R+6.1R+3.1	Lean RLean R	R+8	—
LD-402 seats	● Debra LekanoffINC● Cindy CarterAlso: Alex Ramel (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.1D+44.5	Solid DSolid D	D+43	—
LD-412 seats	● Janice ZahnINC● Elle NguyenAlso: My-Linh Thai (D), Michael Rosen (I)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+45.7D+48.4	Solid DSolid D	D+47	—
LD-422 seats	● Alicia RuleINC● Misty FlowersAlso: Joe Timmons (D), Justin Pike (R)	99%1% 94%6%	D+18.1D+15.3	Solid DLikely D	D+11	—
LD-43D vs D2 seats	● Nicole MacriINC● No RepublicanAlso: Alby Clendennin (D), Shaun Scott (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+85	—
LD-442 seats	● Brandy DonaghyINC● Chris ElderAlso: April Berg (D), Tonya Stadlman (R)	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.4D+25.9	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
LD-452 seats	● Roger GoodmanINC● JoAnn TolentinoAlso: Vanessa Kritzer (D), John Gibbons (R)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.3D+48.5	Solid DSolid D	D+46	—
LD-46D vs D2 seats	● Gerry PolletINC● No RepublicanAlso: Will Dreher (D), Darya Farivar (D), Rodney 'Star' Thornley (I)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+82	—
LD-472 seats	● Debra EntenmanINC● Ted CookeAlso: Cobi Clark (L), Chris Stearns (D)	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+21.9D+20.7	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
LD-482 seats	● Osman SalahuddinINC● Jeffery PoppeAlso: Amy Walen (D), Jessica Forsythe (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.1D+50.8	Solid DSolid D	D+48	—
LD-492 seats	● Monica StonierINC● Sarah MittelmanAlso: Kim Harless (D), Derek Thompson (R)	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.2D+27.5	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.