Illinois · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Illinois House of Representatives?

All 118 seats are on the ballot. 60 seats make a majority. 71 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Illinois House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 83.780% range 81–87
Avg. R seats: 34.380% range 31–37
Now: 78 D · 40 R118 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (78 of 118 seats; 71 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

78 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party40 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Illinois House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 84.280% range 80–88
Avg. R seats: 33.880% range 30–38
Now: 78 D · 40 R118 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (78 of 118 seats; 71 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

78 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party40 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 118 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D79

Show 73 more

Likely D2

Lean D2

Toss-up1

RD-48risk

Lean R1

RD-70

Likely R6

Solid R27

Show 21 more

Solid D73

Show 67 more

Likely D9

Lean D2

Toss-up2

Lean R4

Likely R2

Solid R26

Show 20 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Illinois

Chicago

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

RD-48Amanda ZahorakJennifer SanalitroFlip riskD flip51%Dem.68%Dem. RD-70Veronica Garcia-MartinezJeff KeicherFlip risk63%Rep.51%Dem. RD-65Ricky RivardDan UgasteD flipD flip63%Dem.74%Dem. RD-114George McClellan, Jr.Kevin SchmidtD flipD flip79%Dem.82%Dem.

Most likely to flip

RD-47Erica Bray-ParkerRobert A. VrankovichD flipD flip99%to flip96%to flip RD-52Maria PetersonMartin McLaughlinD flipD flip91%to flip89%to flip RD-104Mary Catherine RobersonBrandun SchweizerD flipD flip80%to flip85%to flip RD-114George McClellan, Jr.Kevin SchmidtD flipD flip79%to flip82%to flip RD-65Ricky RivardDan UgasteD flipD flip63%to flip74%to flip RD-48Amanda ZahorakJennifer SanalitroFlip riskD flip51%to flip68%to flip RD-70Veronica Garcia-MartinezJeff KeicherFlip risk37%to flip51%to flip RD-111Rosetta BrownAmy Elik17%to flip27%to flip RD-69Peter JankoJoe C. Sosnowski14%to flip24%to flip RD-71Kermit ThomasDan SwansonFlip risk14%to flip44%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

118 races, 64 without a contest between the major parties.

118 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
RD-1	● Aaron M. OrtizINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+37	—
RD-2	● Elizabeth HernandezINC● Laura Hruska	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+45.3D+44.3	Solid DSolid D	D+35	—
RD-3	● Eva-Dina DelgadoINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+55	—
RD-4	● Lilian JiménezINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+67	—
RD-5D vs D	● Kimberly du BucletINC● No RepublicanAlso: Kimberly Neely DuBuclet (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+76	—
RD-6	● Sonya HarperINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+66	—
RD-7	● Emanuel "Chris" WelchINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+55	—
RD-8	● Shantel Franklin● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+58	—
RD-9	● Yolonda MorrisINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+67	—
RD-10	● Jawaharial "Omar" WilliamsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+72	—
RD-11	● Ann M. WilliamsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+73	—
RD-12	● Paul Kendrick● Justin J. Kumar	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+67.2D+68.4	Solid DSolid D	D+63	—
RD-13	● Demerike Palecek● Terry Nguyen Le	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+78.3D+82.7	Solid DSolid D	D+78	—
RD-14	● Kelly M. CassidyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+78	—
RD-15	● Michael J. KellyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+19	—
RD-16	● Kevin John OlickalINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+25	—
RD-17	● Jennifer Gong-GershowitzINC● James "Jim" Geldermann	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+45.4D+45.1	Solid DSolid D	D+39	—
RD-18	● Robyn GabelINC● Pete Donaghue	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.7D+74.2	Solid DSolid D	D+69	—
RD-19	● Lindsey LaPointeINC● John "JZ" Zimmers	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.8D+39.0	Solid DSolid D	D+32	—
RD-20	● No Democrat● Brad StephensINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+7	—
RD-21	● Abdelnasser RashidINC● Eric Su	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+46.1D+37.6	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
RD-22	● Angie Guerrero-CuellarINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+16	—
RD-23	● Edgar Gonzalez, Jr.INC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+46	—
RD-24	● Theresa MahINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+44	—
RD-25	● Curtis J. Tarver IIINC● Antoinette Jewel Simmons	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+76.9D+85.0	Solid DSolid D	D+81	—
RD-26	● Kam BucknerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+71	—
RD-27	● Justin Q. SlaughterINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+42	—
RD-28D vs D	● Robert RitaINC● No Republican	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+40	—
RD-29	● Thaddeus JonesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+43	—
RD-30	● William "Will" DavisINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+58	—
RD-31	● Michael "Mike" CrawfordINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+46	—
RD-32	● Lisa J. DavisINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+56	—
RD-33	● Marcus C. Evans, Jr.INC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+69	—
RD-34	● Cleopatra "Cleo" Cowley● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+57	—
RD-35	● Mary GillINC● David A. Dewar	>99%<1% 95%5%	D+23.3D+16.9	Solid DSolid D	D+10	—
RD-36	● Rick RyanINC● David Sheppard	>99%<1% 96%4%	D+23.5D+17.4	Solid DSolid D	D+10	—
RD-37	● No Democrat● Patrick SheehanINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+19	—
RD-38	● Debbie Meyers-MartinINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+42	—
RD-39	● Will GuzzardiINC● Cesar A. Guillen	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+66.5D+70.5	Solid DSolid D	D+64	—
RD-40	● Miguel Alvelo-Rivera● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+66	—
RD-41	● Janet Yang RohrINC● Ajay Gupta	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.0D+31.3	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
RD-42	● Margaret A. DelarosaINC● Stephanie W. Trussell	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+31.9D+29.7	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
RD-43	● Anna MoellerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+25	—
RD-44	● Fred CrespoINC● Ralph Black	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+33.4D+25.2	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
RD-45	● Martha "Marti" DeuterINC● Gina Parrilli	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.2D+21.1	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
RD-46	● Diane Blair-SherlockINC● Pedro Jovany Mendoza	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+24.0D+19.8	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
RD-47D flipD flip	● Erica Bray-Parker● Robert A. Vrankovich	99%1% 96%4%	D+18.7D+18.2	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
RD-48Flip riskD flip	● Amanda Zahorak● Jennifer SanalitroINC	51%49% 68%32%	D+0.2D+4.2	Toss-upLean D	R+3	—
RD-49	● Maura HirschauerINC● John Paul Augustynowicz	>99%<1% 96%4%	D+22.2D+17.7	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
RD-50	● Barbara HernandezINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+30	—
RD-51	● Jenny Levin● Lori Smith	99%1% 97%3%	D+22.2D+19.6	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
RD-52D flipD flip	● Maria Peterson● Martin McLaughlinINC	91%9% 89%11%	D+10.2D+11.9	Likely DLikely D	D+6	—
RD-53	● Nicolle GrasseINC● Elizabeth Bauer	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.7D+23.5	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
RD-54	● Mary Beth CantyINC● Joseph M. Tracy	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.3D+28.0	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
RD-55	● Justin CochranINC● Joseph Johnson	99%1% 95%5%	D+19.1D+16.4	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
RD-56	● Michelle MussmanINC● Rhys Read	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+29.7D+20.5	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
RD-57	● Tracy Katz MuhlINC● Daniel T. Behr	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.3D+33.7	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
RD-58	● Bob MorganINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+42	—
RD-59	● Daniel DidechINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+31	—
RD-60	● Rita MayfieldINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+43	—
RD-61	● Joyce MasonINC● Tina Marie Durrant	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.7D+23.1	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
RD-62	● Laura Faver DiasINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+23	—
RD-63	● No Democrat● Steven ReickINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	D+1	—
RD-64	● AJ Johnson● Tom WeberINC	9%91% 23%77%	R+11.1R+7.0	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
RD-65D flipD flip	● Ricky Rivard● Dan UgasteINC	63%37% 74%26%	D+2.6D+6.0	Lean DLean D	Even	—
RD-66	● Suzanne NessINC● Laurie Parman	99%1% 93%7%	D+18.6D+14.2	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
RD-67	● Maurice A. West IIINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+15	—
RD-68	● Dave VellaINC● Kathy Easton	>99%<1% 96%5%	D+26.8D+17.1	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
RD-69	● Peter Janko● Joe C. SosnowskiINC	14%86% 24%76%	R+7.9R+6.6	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
RD-70Flip risk	● Veronica Garcia-Martinez● Jeff KeicherINC	37%63% 51%49%	R+2.4D+0.2	Lean RToss-up	R+6	—
RD-71Flip risk	● Kermit Thomas● Dan SwansonINC	14%86% 44%56%	R+8.9R+1.4	Likely RToss-up	R+7	—
RD-72	● Gregg JohnsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+19	—
RD-73	● Nicole Dopler● Ryan SpainINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+22.9R+18.3	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
RD-74	● Nolan Kemp● Bradley J. FrittsINC	12%88% 23%77%	R+8.8R+7.0	Likely RLean R	R+14	—
RD-75	● Caroline McCree● Jed DavisINC	5%95% 12%88%	R+13.4R+11.4	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
RD-76	● Amy "Murri" BrielINC● Liz Bishop	97%3% 87%13%	D+14.6D+10.9	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
RD-77	● Norma HernandezINC● Anthony Airdo	99%1% 95%5%	D+23.1D+18.1	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
RD-78	● Camille LillyINC● Julian-Jahleel Randolph Jemison	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.7D+73.7	Solid DSolid D	D+68	—
RD-79	● No Democrat● Jackie HaasINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+7	—
RD-80	● Anthony DeLucaINC● Adam M. Beaty	99%1% 93%7%	D+22.2D+14.1	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
RD-81	● Anne StavaINC● Laura Hois	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.4D+29.3	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
RD-82	● No Democrat● Nicole La HaINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+5	—
RD-83	● Matt HansonINC● Jesse Rodriguez	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+31.8D+23.8	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
RD-84	● Saba Haider● Brian Scopa	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.1D+35.3	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
RD-85	● Dagmara "Dee" AvelarINC● Chris Metcalfe	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+30.6D+26.2	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
RD-86	● Lawrence "Larry" M. Walsh, Jr.INC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+9	—
RD-87	● No Democrat● William E Hauter	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+38	—
RD-88	● No Democrat● Regan DeeringINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+20	—
RD-89	● No Democrat● Tony M. McCombieINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+29	—
RD-90	● No Democrat● John M. CabelloINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+14	—
RD-91	● Sharon ChungINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+8	—
RD-92	● Jehan Gordon-BoothINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+27	—
RD-93	● No Democrat● Travis WeaverINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+26	—
RD-94R vs R	● No Democrat● Norine HammondINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+36	—
RD-95	● No Democrat● Mike CoffeyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+5	—
RD-96	● Sue SchererINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+16	—
RD-97	● Jessica Dixon HeitmanINC● Gabby Shanahan	97%3% 89%11%	D+14.8D+12.0	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
RD-98	● Natalie A. ManleyINC● Nona Parker	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+33.1D+24.0	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
RD-99	● No Democrat● Kyle A. MooreINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+41	—
RD-100	● No Democrat● Christopher "C.D." DavidsmeyerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+50	—
RD-101	● Douglas Fagan● Chris G. MillerINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.5R+27.9	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
RD-102	● No Democrat● Adam M. NiemergINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
RD-103	● Carol AmmonsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+59	—
RD-104D flipD flip	● Mary Catherine Roberson● Brandun SchweizerINC	80%20% 85%15%	D+6.4D+9.9	Likely DLikely D	D+4	—
RD-105	● Lisa Diana Tejeda● Tim Ruestman	1%99% 2%98%	R+18.4R+21.0	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
RD-106	● No Democrat● Jason R. BuntingINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+44	—
RD-107R vs R	● No Democrat● Brad HalbrookINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+53	—
RD-108	● No Democrat● Wayne A. RosenthalINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+37	—
RD-109R vs R	● No Democrat● Charles MeierINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+40	—
RD-110	● No Democrat● Blaine WilhourINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+57	—
RD-111	● Rosetta Brown● Amy ElikINC	17%83% 27%73%	R+7.3R+5.8	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
RD-112	● Katie StuartINC● Jimmy Ford	99%1% 92%8%	D+19.2D+13.8	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
RD-113	● Jay C. HoffmanINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+20	—
RD-114D flipD flip	● George McClellan, Jr.● Kevin SchmidtINC	79%21% 82%18%	D+6.0D+8.8	Lean DLikely D	D+3	—
RD-115	● No Democrat● David H. FriessINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+44	—
RD-116	● No Democrat● Dave SeverinINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+56	—
RD-117	● No Democrat● Patrick WindhorstINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+54	—
RD-118	● Homer "Chip" Markel● Scott DoodyINC	10%90% 15%85%	R+9.5R+9.9	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.