Rhode Island · 2026 forecast · New England region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island in 2026
Rhode Island elects a U.S. senator and a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, all 2 members of the U.S. House, all 38 members of the State Senate and all 75 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 4 statewide offices · 2 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- D >99%D >99%Jack Reed vs. Raymond McKay + 1 more
- Governor
- D >99%D >99%Helena Foulkes vs. Aaron Guckian + 1 more
- U.S. House
- 2.0 D · 0.0 R2.0 D · 0.0 RExpected seats of 2
- Rhode Island State Senate
- D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 38 of 38 seats up
- Rhode Island House of Representatives
- D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 75 of 75 seats up
- Lieutenant Governor
- D 93%D 77%Sabina Matos vs. John Loughlin
- Attorney General
- D >99%D >99%Kimberly Ahern vs. Alan Gordon
- Secretary of State
- Solid DSolid DGregg Amore unopposed
- Treasurer
- D >99%D >99%James Diossa vs. Micholas Credle
U.S. House districts · Rhode Island
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Democratic trifecta now
Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- >99%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- >99%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
U.S. Senate
Governor
Statewide offices
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Secretary of State
Treasurer
Ratings
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Faded: no major-party opponent.
The Rhode Island environment
The environment Rhode Island's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Rhode Island state offices vs. the nation
- +3.9± 4.0 (80% range) · 2 polled state races
- Rhode Island state-office environment
- D+13.43.9 pts more Democratic than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Rhode Island environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
2 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
Providence
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RI-1 | ● Gabe AmoINC● Kellie KeenanAlso: Pedro DeSouza (I) | D+35.5D+33.2 | D+24 | 1 | ||
| RI-2 | ● Seth MagazinerINC● Vic Mellor | D+19.5D+15.9 | D+9 | 1 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Rhode Island General Assembly
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Rhode Island State Senate
Avg. 35 D – 3 R seats · 20 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Avg. 35 D – 3 R seats · 20 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Rhode Island State Senate ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 D→R.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Rhode Island House of Representatives
Avg. 67 D – 9 R seats · 38 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Avg. 66 D – 9 R seats · 38 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Rhode Island House of Representatives ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.