Idaho · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Idaho State Senate?

All 35 seats are on the ballot. 18 seats make a majority. 24 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Idaho State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 6.580% range 5–7
Avg. R seats: 28.580% range 28–30
Now: 6 D · 29 R35 up this year

Republican supermajority now (29 of 35 seats; 24 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

6 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party29 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Idaho State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 5.380% range 4–7
Avg. R seats: 29.780% range 28–31
Now: 6 D · 29 R35 up this year

Republican supermajority now (29 of 35 seats; 24 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

6 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party29 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 35 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D4

Likely D1

LD-26

Lean D2

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R1

LD-6

Solid R27

Show 21 more

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up2

Lean R1

LD-29flip

Likely R1

LD-6

Solid R27

Show 21 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Idaho

Boise

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

LD-15Nancy GregoryDesi BurbankD flipFlip risk71%Dem.53%Rep. LD-29James D. RuchtiJohn CrowderR flip78%Dem.77%Rep.

Most likely to flip

LD-15Nancy GregoryDesi BurbankD flipFlip risk71%to flip47%to flip LD-29James D. RuchtiJohn CrowderR flip22%to flip77%to flip LD-26Ron TaylorBryan HydeFlip risk17%to flip54%to flip LD-6Robin WeldyDan Foreman10%to flip10%to flip LD-22Karlie EasleyLori Den Hartog1%to flip2%to flip LD-4Carissa BrewerBen Toews1%to flip1%to flip LD-33Jan BrownDave Lent1%to flip2%to flip LD-17Carrie SemmelrothBenjamin Chafetz<1%to flip3%to flip LD-21Brenda H. QuickTreg A. Bernt<1%to flip1%to flip LD-20Pamela Renee WilsonJosh Keyser<1%to flip1%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

35 races, 3 without a contest between the major parties.

35 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
LD-1	● No Democrat● Scott Herndon	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+46	—
LD-2	● Valerie Wade● Phil HartINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+48.9R+59.3	Solid RSolid R	R+62	—
LD-3	● Brian Seguin● Doug "Doug O" OkuniewiczINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.6R+54.1	Solid RSolid R	R+59	—
LD-4	● Carissa Brewer● Ben ToewsINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+20.7R+24.5	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
LD-5	● Adam Chapman● Carl J BjerkeINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+42.5R+50.7	Solid RSolid R	R+55	—
LD-6	● Robin Weldy● Dan ForemanINC	10%90% 10%90%	R+9.1R+12.3	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
LD-7	● Patrice Yeatter● Cindy CarlsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.4R+48.8	Solid RSolid R	R+52	—
LD-8	● John H Garrett● Christy ZitoINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.7R+39.2	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
LD-9	● Janice Martell● Brandon ShippyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+51.9R+59.6	Solid RSolid R	R+63	—
LD-10	● Nancy M Parker● Tammy NicholsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+47.0R+54.1	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
LD-11	● Susan Counsil● Camille BlaylockINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.2R+27.2	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
LD-12	● Krystal Flippence● Ben AdamsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.3R+34.8	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
LD-13	● Letishia Silva● Brian LenneyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.5R+35.6	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
LD-14	● No Democrat● C. Scott GrowINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+48	—
LD-15D flipFlip risk	● Nancy Gregory● Desi Burbank	71%29% 47%53%	D+3.9R+0.7	Lean DToss-up	R+5	—
LD-16	● Soñia Galaviz● Geoffrey Surbeck	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.1D+24.1	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
LD-17	● Carrie SemmelrothINC● Benjamin Chafetz	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+23.2D+18.9	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
LD-18	● Janie Ward-EngelkingINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+24	—
LD-19	● Melissa WintrowINC● Melissa J. Christian	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.8D+38.8	Solid DSolid D	D+35	—
LD-20	● Pamela Renee Wilson● Josh KeyserINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.6R+27.2	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
LD-21	● Brenda H. Quick● Treg A. BerntINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.0R+25.4	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
LD-22	● Karlie Easley● Lori Den HartogINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.2R+23.2	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
LD-23	● Paul Morgan● Todd LakeyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.8R+52.6	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
LD-24	● Mary Jo Durfee● Brent D Reinke	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+49.4R+58.3	Solid RSolid R	R+62	—
LD-25	● W. Lane Startin● Casey Swensen	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.6R+33.6	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
LD-26Flip risk	● Ron TaylorINC● Bryan Hyde	83%17% 46%54%	D+7.3R+0.8	Likely DToss-up	R+4	—
LD-27	● Margo Saunders● Kelly Arthur AnthonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+54.9R+65.4	Solid RSolid R	R+69	—
LD-28	● Mandy Peace● Jim GuthrieINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.5R+46.5	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
LD-29R flip	● James D. RuchtiINC● John Crowder	78%22% 23%77%	D+6.3R+7.1	Lean DLean R	R+12	—
LD-30	● Joni Lin Sorensen● Julie VanOrdenINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+50.0R+57.9	Solid RSolid R	R+61	—
LD-31	● Kevin Gerrard● Van T. BurtenshawINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+57.4R+67.3	Solid RSolid R	R+71	—
LD-32	● Konnor Whitfield● Kevin J CookINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.0R+44.3	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
LD-33	● Jan Brown● Dave LentINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+22.9R+22.7	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
LD-34	● Ethan Sanford● Doug RicksINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+53.9R+62.8	Solid RSolid R	R+67	—
LD-35	● Marty Rotz Kilhefner● Mark HarrisINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.4R+47.2	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).