Hawaii · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Hawaii House of Representatives?

All 51 seats are on the ballot. 26 seats make a majority. 34 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Hawaii House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 45.780% range 44–48
Avg. R seats: 5.380% range 3–7
Now: 41 D · 10 R51 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (41 of 51 seats; 34 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

41 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party10 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Hawaii House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 45.280% range 43–47
Avg. R seats: 5.880% range 4–8
Now: 41 D · 10 R51 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (41 of 51 seats; 34 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

41 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party10 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 51 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

6 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D42

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Likely D2

Lean D1

HD-44

Toss-up2

Lean R1

HD-45

Likely R0

Solid R3

Solid D40

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Likely D3

Lean D2

Toss-up2

Lean R1

HD-44flip

Likely R0

Solid R3

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Hawaii

Honolulu

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-40Rose MartinezJulie Reyes OdaFlip riskFlip risk56%Rep.51%Rep. HD-42Anthony Makana ParisDiamond GarciaFlip riskD flip59%Rep.62%Dem. HD-45Kalehua KaopuaChris MuraokaFlip risk65%Rep.54%Rep. HD-44Darius K. KilaCharla (Kahealani) WeaverR flip78%Dem.62%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-18James (Jamie) WataruJoe GedeonD flipD flip>99%to flip>99%to flip HD-14Sne PatelElle CochranD flipD flip99%to flip99%to flip HD-32Micah Pookela Kim AiuGarner M. ShimizuD flipD flip99%to flip99%to flip HD-39Corey RosenleeDaniel DeGraciaD flipD flip91%to flip86%to flip HD-40Rose MartinezJulie Reyes OdaFlip riskFlip risk44%to flip49%to flip HD-42Anthony Makana ParisDiamond GarciaFlip riskD flip41%to flip62%to flip HD-45Kalehua KaopuaChris MuraokaFlip risk35%to flip46%to flip HD-44Darius K. KilaCharla (Kahealani) WeaverR flip22%to flip62%to flip HD-47Sean QuinlanMark Talaeai9%to flip30%to flip HD-30Shirley Ann TemploAmanda Ybanez3%to flip15%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

51 races, 23 without a contest between the major parties.

51 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Matthias KuschINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+41	—
HD-2	● Sue Keohokapu Lee LoyINC● Jonathan Kennealy	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.5D+47.2	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
HD-3	● Chris L.T. ToddINC● No RepublicanAlso: Austin Martin (L)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+29	—
HD-4	● Greggor IlaganINC● Zak Wittenhagen	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.2D+36.1	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-5	● Jeanne KapelaINC● Dalene McCormick	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.1D+35.7	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-6	● Kirstin KahaloaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+24	—
HD-7	● Nicole LowenINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+16	—
HD-8	● David A. TarnasINC● Monique Perreira	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.1D+37.8	Solid DSolid D	D+33	—
HD-9	● Justin H. WoodsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+24	—
HD-10	● Tyson K. MiyakeINC● Travis Bumanglag	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.9D+34.5	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
HD-11	● Terez (T.amato) AmatoINC● Sheila Walker	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.8D+32.9	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
HD-12	● Kyle T. YamashitaINC● Dan Johnson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.0D+39.7	Solid DSolid D	D+34	—
HD-13	● Mahina PoepoeINC● Robin D. Vanderpool	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.3D+39.2	Solid DSolid D	D+34	—
HD-14D flipD flip	● Sne Patel● Elle CochranINCAlso: Pa'ele Kiakona (G)	99%1% 99%1%	D+19.3D+25.4	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
HD-15	● Nadine K. NakamuraINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+23	—
HD-16	● Luke A. EvslinINC● David Hazlebeck	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.8D+26.5	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-17	● Daynette MorikawaINC● Misty Cluett	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+30.9D+28.6	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-18D flipD flip	● James (Jamie) Wataru● Joe GedeonINC	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+30.8D+38.7	Solid DSolid D	D+33	—
HD-19	● Mark Jun HashemINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+37	—
HD-20	● Tina Nakada GrandinettiINC● David Asing	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.1D+47.3	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
HD-21	● Derek Turbin● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+45	—
HD-22	● Andrew Takuya GarrettINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+52	—
HD-23	● Ikaika M. OldsINC● Victor Muh	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.1D+44.4	Solid DSolid D	D+39	—
HD-24	● Adrian TamINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+34	—
HD-25	● Kim Coco IwamotoINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+40	—
HD-26	● Ian M.A. Ross● Tony Silva	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.9D+48.0	Solid DSolid D	D+43	—
HD-27	● Jenna W.Y.C. TakenouchiINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+40	—
HD-28	● Michael RatcliffeINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+23	—
HD-29	● Ikaika HusseyINC● Tess Abalos	99%1% 96%4%	D+24.4D+19.4	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
HD-30	● Shirley Ann TemploINC● Amanda Ybanez	97%3% 85%15%	D+18.1D+10.3	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-31	● Linda IchiyamaINC● Nancy Valdez	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+30.2D+27.3	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-32D flipD flip	● Micah Pookela Kim Aiu● Garner M. ShimizuINC	99%1% 99%1%	D+20.9D+30.0	Solid DSolid D	D+24	—
HD-33	● Sam Satoru KongINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+32	—
HD-34	● Gregg TakayamaINC● Gaius, II (Kipi) Dupio	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+32.3D+30.2	Solid DSolid D	D+24	—
HD-35	● Cory M. ChunINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+14	—
HD-36	● Daisy Balais HartsfieldINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+4	—
HD-37	● Trish La ChicaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+24	—
HD-38	● No Democrat● Lauren Cheape MatsumotoINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	D+20	—
HD-39D flipD flip	● Corey Rosenlee● Daniel DeGracia	91%9% 86%14%	D+10.5D+10.9	Likely DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-40Flip riskFlip risk	● Rose Martinez● Julie Reyes OdaINC	44%56% 49%51%	R+1.1R+0.2	Toss-upToss-up	R+7	—
HD-41	● No Democrat● David A. Alcos IIIINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+1	—
HD-42Flip riskD flip	● Anthony Makana Paris● Diamond GarciaINC	41%59% 62%38%	R+1.9D+3.1	Toss-upLean D	R+3	—
HD-43R vs R	● No Democrat● Kanani SouzaINCAlso: Sheila Medeiros (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+1	—
HD-44R flip	● Darius K. KilaINC● Charla (Kahealani) Weaver	78%22% 38%62%	D+6.8R+3.0	Lean DLean R	R+10	—
HD-45Flip risk	● Kalehua Kaopua● Chris MuraokaINC	35%65% 46%54%	R+2.8R+1.1	Lean RToss-up	R+8	—
HD-46	● Amy A. PerrusoINC● Daniel Michael Gabriel	98%2% 91%9%	D+17.7D+13.9	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
HD-47	● Sean QuinlanINC● Mark Talaeai	91%9% 70%30%	D+10.9D+5.2	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
HD-48	● Lisa C. KitagawaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+25	—
HD-49	● Scot MatayoshiINC● 'Ale Rodas	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.7D+35.5	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-50	● Mike LeeINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jesse W.M. Fitzgerald (G)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+34	—
HD-51	● Lisa MartenINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+28	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.