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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Missouri · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Missouri House of Representatives?

All 163 seats are on the ballot. 82 seats make a majority. 109 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Missouri House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
63.680% range 57–70
Avg. R seats
99.480% range 93–106
Now
50 D · 105 R · 8 vacant163 up this year

Chance Republicans win a two-thirds supermajority (109+ seats): 4%

50 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party105 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Missouri House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
62.580% range 56–69
Avg. R seats
100.580% range 94–107
Now
50 D · 105 R · 8 vacant163 up this year

Chance Republicans win a two-thirds supermajority (109+ seats): 7%

50 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party105 R now

82 for control
82 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 163 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

10 seats projected to flip: 10 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

11 seats projected to flip: 11 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D50

Show 44 more

Likely D6

Lean D6

Toss-up4

Lean R4

Likely R7

Solid R86

Show 80 more

Solid D42

Show 36 more

Likely D13

Lean D7

Toss-up4

Lean R3

Likely R12

Solid R82

Show 76 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Missouri

St. Louis

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-104Tara MurrayTerri VioletFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.53%Dem. HD-89Bryan TroopGeorge HruzaFlip riskD flip56%Dem.64%Dem. HD-31Justin GeiserRon FowlerFlip riskFlip risk58%Rep.55%Rep. HD-106Jewel KellyTravis WilsonFlip riskD flip59%Dem.64%Dem. HD-94Cathy A SummersMaryellen MurphyD flipFlip risk64%Dem.51%Dem. HD-56Staci CzarSteve Baker67%Rep.82%Rep. HD-16Dan KinateChris BrownD flipD flip69%Dem.75%Dem. HD-10LaTonya T. WilliamsPaul Gatewood73%Rep.77%Rep. HD-60Suzanne LutherShane Kampeter76%Rep.78%Rep. HD-17Susan HoisingtonBill AllenD flipD flip77%Dem.78%Dem.

Most likely to flip

HD-12Tracey SteeleJerry HickeyD flipD flip92%to flip88%to flip HD-100Mary Ann PerkinsPhilip OehlerkingD flipD flip82%to flip82%to flip HD-96Matt VitaleBrad ChristD flipD flip81%to flip86%to flip HD-30Kevin GroverJeff MartinD flipD flip80%to flip76%to flip HD-133Katelyn ZachJerry AngeloD flipD flip79%to flip67%to flip HD-105Cat ClaytonColin WellenkampD flipD flip78%to flip81%to flip HD-101Paul LentzBen KeathleyD flipD flip78%to flip83%to flip HD-17Susan HoisingtonBill AllenD flipD flip77%to flip78%to flip HD-16Dan KinateChris BrownD flipD flip69%to flip75%to flip HD-94Cathy A SummersMaryellen MurphyD flipFlip risk64%to flip51%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

82 for D control →← R two-thirds50556065707580
82 for D control →← R two-thirds4550556065707580

Every race

163 races, 34 without a contest between the major parties.

163 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
HD-1
● No Democrat● Jeff FarnanINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+53—
HD-2
● Casey Scott● Phil FoxAlso: Shelby Dreier (L)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+49.8R+60.0Solid RSolid RR+65—
HD-3
● Corey Luebbering● P. Jeremy Mosley
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.2R+40.4Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-4
● Tristan Sutton● Keith Gudehus
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+49.3R+57.9Solid RSolid RR+63—
HD-5
● John Paul Tomko● Roth Mcelvain
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.7R+49.1Solid RSolid RR+55—
HD-6
● Robert Johnson● Kelly GattsAlso: John Davison (L)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.7R+50.0Solid RSolid RR+55—
HD-7
● Adrian Cooper● Jeremy Clevenger
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+45.4R+53.7Solid RSolid RR+59—
HD-8
● Amy Minich● Josh HurlbertINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.9R+29.7Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-9
● Gena Puckett● Dean VanSchoiackINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.5R+48.0Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-10
● LaTonya T. Williams● Paul Gatewood
27%73%
23%77%
R+4.4R+7.0Lean RLean RR+14—
HD-11
● Luke Rae● Taylor Crouse
1%99%
2%98%
R+21.9R+22.5Solid RSolid RR+29—
HD-12D flipD flip
● Tracey Steele● Jerry Hickey
92%8%
88%12%
D+10.6D+11.4Likely DLikely DD+7—
HD-13
● Jacoby Wynkoop● John Elliott
1%99%
1%99%
R+19.8R+25.6Solid RSolid RR+31—
HD-14
● Ashley AuneINC● Frank Pendleton
99%1%
93%7%
D+19.4D+14.3Solid DLikely DD+10—
HD-15
● Kenneth JamisonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+8—
HD-16D flipD flip
● Dan Kinate● Chris BrownINC
69%31%
75%25%
D+3.6D+6.3Lean DLean DEven—
HD-17D flipD flip
● Susan Hoisington● Bill AllenINC
77%23%
78%22%
D+5.3D+7.2Lean DLean DD+1—
HD-18
● Eric WoodsINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+22—
HD-19
● Wick ThomasINC● Karen Irene Spalding
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+54.2D+54.6Solid DSolid DD+49—
HD-20
● Jeff Spicer● Mike SteinmeyerINC
15%85%
20%80%
R+7.3R+8.0Likely RLikely RR+15—
HD-21
● Will JobeINC● Michael Young
92%8%
65%35%
D+11.6D+3.7Likely DLean DR+3—
HD-22
● Yolanda YoungINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+51—
HD-23
● Tony L. Van Trece● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+71—
HD-24
● Kevin Garner● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+70—
HD-25
● Pattie MansurINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+57—
HD-26
● Tiffany PriceINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+65—
HD-27
● Melissa A DouglasINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+75—
HD-28
● Donna BarnesINC● Steven W Hinton
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.0D+39.2Solid DSolid DD+33—
HD-29
● Tedi H. Rowland● Robert Bruette
96%4%
82%18%
D+13.4D+8.9Solid DLikely DD+2—
HD-30D flipD flip
● Kevin Grover● Jeff Martin
80%20%
76%24%
D+6.1D+6.8Likely DLean DEven—
HD-31Flip riskFlip risk
● Justin Geiser● Ron FowlerINC
42%58%
45%55%
R+1.4R+1.0Toss-upToss-upR+8—
HD-32
● Jennifer Cassidy● Michael Todd
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.2R+29.2Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-33
● Troy Latterell● Carolyn CatonINC
3%97%
8%92%
R+16.7R+13.5Solid RLikely RR+21—
HD-34
● Kemp StricklerINC● Sean Smith
97%3%
83%17%
D+15.3D+9.3Solid DLikely DD+2—
HD-35
● Michael Scott● Jacquie Aziere Stenger
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+22.2D+20.6Solid DSolid DD+14—
HD-36
● Anthony T. Ealy JrINC● Dave Thomas
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+32.8D+30.1Solid DSolid DD+24—
HD-37
● Karissa Marie Varga● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+41—
HD-38Flip risk
● Martin (Marty) JacobsINC● Mary Hill
89%11%
56%44%
D+9.5D+1.4Likely DToss-upR+5—
HD-39
● Tanya Lakins● Mark MeirathINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+22.7R+21.1Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-40
● Thomas D McBeth● Chad PerkinsINCAlso: Sheri Jay (L)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+47.1R+54.0Solid RSolid RR+59—
HD-41
● Matthew Beger● Doyle JustusINCAlso: Dalton P. Johnson (L)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.2R+47.6Solid RSolid RR+53—
HD-42
● Amy Pritchard● Jeff MyersINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.5R+44.7Solid RSolid RR+51—
HD-43
● Rich Gold● Brendan Webber
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.3R+46.5Solid RSolid RR+52—
HD-44
● Bekki Brewer● John MartinINC
2%98%
5%95%
R+15.5R+16.7Solid RSolid RR+23—
HD-45
● Kathy SteinhoffINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+47—
HD-46
● David Tyson SmithINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+28—
HD-47
● Adrian PlankINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+7—
HD-48
● Hope Tinker● Tim TaylorINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.8R+43.9Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-49
● Jessica O'Neal-Slisz● Jim SchulteINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.0R+36.2Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-50
● Gregg BushINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+16—
HD-51
● Ron Fauss● Stephanie Gooden
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.5R+39.8Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-52
● Rene Vance● Israel Baeza
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.9R+40.3Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-53
● Beth Grubb● Terry ThompsonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.7R+40.4Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-54
● Taigan Rayne Plummer● Brandon PhelpsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.0R+30.3Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-55
● Jon Pennell● William (Bill) IrwinINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.0R+33.7Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-56
● Staci Czar● Steve Baker
33%67%
18%82%
R+3.1R+8.5Lean RLikely RR+14—
HD-57
● Michael D. Walbom● Matt Sergent
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.4R+50.7Solid RSolid RR+56—
HD-58
● Roger Korenberg● Willard HaleyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+48.5R+56.5Solid RSolid RR+61—
HD-59
● Becky Kroll● Carrie Tergin
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.6R+43.8Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-60
● Suzanne Luther● Shane Kampeter
24%76%
22%78%
R+5.0R+7.3Lean RLean RR+14—
HD-61
● Stacy Bax● Bruce SassmannINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+51.7R+60.3Solid RSolid RR+66—
HD-62
● Liz Davenport● Sherri GallickINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.7R+38.8Solid RSolid RR+45—
HD-63
● Donald R Looney Jr● Tony Lovasco
1%99%
2%98%
R+18.1R+21.0Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-64
● Amber Teson● Deanna SelfINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.7R+25.4Solid RSolid RR+32—
HD-65
● Dale Conoyer● Wendy L. HausmanINC
4%96%
14%86%
R+14.5R+10.2Solid RLikely RR+17—
HD-66
● Marlene TerryINC● Laura Mitchell-Riley
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+72.9D+79.9Solid DSolid DD+76—
HD-67
● Tonya RushINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+71—
HD-68
● Kem SmithINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+50—
HD-69
● Chris Chapman● Scott MillerINC
18%82%
22%78%
R+6.5R+7.2Likely RLean RR+14—
HD-70
● Stephanie BoykinINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+29—
HD-71
● Nicole Greer● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+30—
HD-72
● Patrick James Wroblewski● Jeffrey Jacks
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+38.3D+33.7Solid DSolid DD+28—
HD-73
● Kennedy Moore● No RepublicanAlso: Joy Denise Dabney (L)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+63—
HD-74
● Marla SmithINC● Jack Howard
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+66.9D+72.8Solid DSolid DD+68—
HD-75
● Chanel MosleyINC● Brandon Wilke
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+56.3D+56.4Solid DSolid DD+51—
HD-76
● Marlon AndersonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+80—
HD-77
● Kimberly-Ann CollinsINC● No RepublicanAlso: Michael Corey (L)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+80—
HD-78
● Marty Joe MurrayINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+77—
HD-79
● Rachel D'Souza● Mike Hebron
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+77.1D+86.1Solid DSolid DD+82—
HD-80
● Elizabeth (Lilly) FuchsINC● Jennie Drag
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+69.8D+73.3Solid DSolid DD+68—
HD-81
● James (Jimmy) Lappe● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+45—
HD-82
● Nick KimbleINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+42—
HD-83
● Ray ReedINC● No RepublicanAlso: Andrew Bolin (L)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+39—
HD-84
● Del TaylorINC● Robert Vroman
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+75.7D+80.6Solid DSolid DD+76—
HD-85
● Yolonda Fountain HendersonINC● Jerron J Sutton
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+79.6D+89.4Solid DSolid DD+86—
HD-86
● Jeff HalesINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+68—
HD-87
● Connie SteinmetzINC● Dan Hyatt
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.2D+30.6Solid DSolid DD+24—
HD-88
● Jennifer Trickey● Holly JonesINC
11%89%
15%85%
R+9.1R+9.9Likely RLikely RR+16—
HD-89Flip riskD flip
● Bryan Troop● George HruzaINC
56%44%
64%36%
D+1.1D+3.6Toss-upLean DR+3—
HD-90
● Mark BoykoINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+27—
HD-91
● Jo DollINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+43—
HD-92
● Michael BurtonINC● Kenneth Abram
99%1%
90%10%
D+18.0D+12.4Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-93
● Bridget Walsh MooreINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+6—
HD-94D flipFlip risk
● Cathy A Summers● Maryellen Murphy
64%36%
51%49%
D+2.5D+0.1Lean DToss-upR+7—
HD-95
● Meredith Sumenek● Bob Mahacek
21%79%
17%83%
R+5.9R+9.1Lean RLikely RR+15—
HD-96D flipD flip
● Matt Vitale● Brad ChristINCAlso: Shane Ferguson (L)
81%19%
86%14%
D+6.8D+10.4Likely DLikely DD+4—
HD-97
● Dan Schaefer● David Robertson
2%98%
2%98%
R+15.9R+21.1Solid RSolid RR+27—
HD-98
● Jaclyn ZimmermannINC● Timothy Bosch
98%2%
90%10%
D+17.6D+12.7Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-99
● Tori Schafer● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+39—
HD-100D flipD flip
● Mary Ann Perkins● Philip OehlerkingINCAlso: Ken Newhouse (L)
82%18%
82%18%
D+6.9D+8.8Likely DLikely DD+2—
HD-101D flipD flip
● Paul Lentz● Ben KeathleyINCAlso: Jeff Coleman (L)
78%22%
83%17%
D+6.1D+9.5Lean DLikely DD+3—
HD-102
● David Rogers● Richard W WestINC
1%99%
3%97%
R+17.4R+19.7Solid RSolid RR+26—
HD-103
● Don Crozier● Dave HinmanINC
9%91%
11%89%
R+9.8R+11.8Likely RLikely RR+19—
HD-104Flip riskFlip risk
● Tara Murray● Terri VioletINC
49%51%
53%47%
R+0.1D+0.6Toss-upToss-upR+6—
HD-105D flipD flip
● Cat Clayton● Colin WellenkampINC
78%22%
81%19%
D+5.7D+8.1Lean DLikely DD+1—
HD-106Flip riskD flip
● Jewel Kelly● Travis WilsonINC
59%41%
64%36%
D+1.7D+3.3Toss-upLean DR+3—
HD-107
● Gary Wester● Mark MatthiesenINC
6%94%
9%91%
R+11.7R+13.1Likely RLikely RR+19—
HD-108
● Stephen Scott● Mike CostlowINC
3%97%
6%94%
R+14.5R+15.8Solid RLikely RR+22—
HD-109
● Trent Leslie● John SimmonsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.1R+36.8Solid RSolid RR+43—
HD-110
● Claire Heinrich● Niles Stephens
13%87%
11%89%
R+8.6R+12.2Likely RLikely RR+18—
HD-111
● Stacey Hagen● Cecelie WilliamsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.5R+35.8Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-112
● Dave Rekosh● Ed Callahan
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.5R+27.8Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-113
● Ashley Drury● Phil AmatoINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+24.5R+23.6Solid RSolid RR+30—
HD-114
● Jessie Shepherd● Ann Moloney
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+25.4R+31.4Solid RSolid RR+38—
HD-115
● David George● Bill LucasINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.2R+43.0Solid RSolid RR+49—
HD-116
● Whitney Wisker-Brooks● Jason Green
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.0R+49.7Solid RSolid RR+55—
HD-117
● Eli Flowers● Becky LaubingerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.6R+45.9Solid RSolid RR+52—
HD-118
● Sarah Rachel Puckett● Amy DeClue
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.8R+51.5Solid RSolid RR+57—
HD-119
● Amy Thompson● Brad BandermanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.6R+34.7Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-120
● Ray Bruno● John W HewkinINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+52.3R+61.4Solid RSolid RR+66—
HD-121
● Miguel Arellanes● Keith Pritchard
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+26.1R+31.9Solid RSolid RR+37—
HD-122
● Dan Victor● Tara J PetersINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+29.9R+33.6Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-123
● Cody Hutcheson● Jeff VernettiINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.0R+48.7Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-124
● Tara Hallmark● Kevin Onstott
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.5R+59.6Solid RSolid RR+65—
HD-125
● Lynda C Jones● Dane DiehlINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.9R+58.4Solid RSolid RR+63—
HD-126
● Melissa Perry● Jim KalberlohINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.4R+51.2Solid RSolid RR+56—
HD-127
● Marvin Manring● Brenden J. KelleyAlso: Racheal Martin (I)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+55.5R+65.2Solid RSolid RR+70—
HD-128
● Michael L. Martin● Christopher D. WarwickINCAlso: Shane Sawyer (I)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+49.0R+56.4Solid RSolid RR+61—
HD-129
● John Gray● Will Worsham
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+48.6R+57.5Solid RSolid RR+62—
HD-130
● Leslie Jones● Bishop DavidsonINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+23.0R+26.7Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-131
● Ashley Cossins● Bill OwenINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.1R+44.4Solid RSolid RR+51—
HD-132
● Jeremy DeanINC● Russ Gosselin
97%3%
83%17%
D+15.5D+9.4Solid DLikely DD+3—
HD-133D flipD flip
● Katelyn Zach● Jerry Angelo
79%21%
67%33%
D+5.8D+4.1Lean DLean DR+3—
HD-134
● K. Grant● Alex RileyINC
2%98%
6%94%
R+18.0R+15.2Solid RLikely RR+22—
HD-135
● John Michael (Johnny) Chiles● Michael Hasty
98%2%
90%10%
D+15.8D+12.7Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-136
● Stephanie HeinINC● Jacey Buckles
97%3%
81%19%
D+14.4D+8.1Solid DLikely DD+1—
HD-137
● Bryce F. Lockwood● Darin ChappellINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.0R+28.1Solid RSolid RR+35—
HD-138
● Chris Daugherty● Burt WhaleyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.3R+58.9Solid RSolid RR+64—
HD-139
● No Democrat● Bob TitusINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+48—
HD-140
● Julia E. Curran● Jamie Ray GraggINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.3R+46.0Solid RSolid RR+52—
HD-141
● Darrel (Mike) Swofford● Melissa SchmidtINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+58.0R+66.3Solid RSolid RR+71—
HD-142
● Josh Ray● Jeff Brown
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.7R+58.7Solid RSolid RR+64—
HD-143
● Marsha Snodgrass● Bennie CookINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+55.5R+63.8Solid RSolid RR+68—
HD-144
● Andrew J Eye● Chris Dodson Dinkins
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+54.9R+62.6Solid RSolid RR+67—
HD-145
● Carl Kinsky● Bryant WolfinINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.8R+49.3Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-146
● Mary Harriet Talbut● Lucas Green
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.6R+53.5Solid RSolid RR+60—
HD-147
● Tim Palmer● John VossINCAlso: Greg Tlapek (L)
8%92%
15%85%
R+10.5R+10.1Likely RLikely RR+17—
HD-148
● Casey Carlisle● David A. DolanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+46.0R+53.4Solid RSolid RR+59—
HD-149
● John Armbruster● Scott Crumpecker
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.0R+43.0Solid RSolid RR+48—
HD-150
● No Democrat● Cameron Bunting ParkerINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+66—
HD-151
● Pam Proffitt-Rowland● Steve W JordanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+59.1R+68.9Solid RSolid RR+73—
HD-152
● Corretta Bishop● Jeff Shawan
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+49.0R+56.3Solid RSolid RR+61—
HD-153
● Les Majors● Keith Wayne ElliottINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+58.3R+67.7Solid RSolid RR+72—
HD-154
● Jojo Stewart● Lisa K DurnellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+53.7R+61.8Solid RSolid RR+67—
HD-155
● Joshua Berzins● Matthew OvercastINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+54.1R+62.7Solid RSolid RR+67—
HD-156
● Trent Davis● Brian H. SeitzINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+45.0R+52.4Solid RSolid RR+58—
HD-157
● Bradley Bos● Mitch BoggsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.3R+59.3Solid RSolid RR+64—
HD-158
● Chris Foster● Scott CuppsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+52.2R+59.6Solid RSolid RR+65—
HD-159
● No Democrat● Joel Mace
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+66—
HD-160
● Angela Thomas● Cheryle Perkins
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.1R+49.9Solid RSolid RR+55—
HD-161
● Aaron Joseph Metzger● Thomas Ross
5%95%
4%96%
R+12.4R+17.3Solid RSolid RR+24—
HD-162
● No Democrat● Roger Koch
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+51—
HD-163
● Brenna Barksdale● Cathy Jo LoyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.5R+45.3Solid RSolid RR+51—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).