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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Tennessee · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Tennessee House of Representatives?

All 99 seats are on the ballot. 50 seats make a majority. 50 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Tennessee House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
27.980% range 25–31
Avg. R seats
71.180% range 68–74
Now
23 D · 75 R · 1 vacant99 up this year

Republican supermajority now (75 of 99 seats; 50 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

23 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party75 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Tennessee House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
26.480% range 24–29
Avg. R seats
72.680% range 70–75
Now
23 D · 75 R · 1 vacant99 up this year

Republican supermajority now (75 of 99 seats; 50 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

23 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party75 R now

50 for control
50 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 99 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D25

Show 19 more

Likely D0

Lean D2

Toss-up0

Lean R3

Likely R7

Solid R62

Show 56 more

Solid D20

Show 14 more

Likely D4

Lean D1

Toss-up2

Lean R1

Likely R8

Solid R63

Show 57 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Tennessee

Nashville

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-75Allie PhillipsMichael Lankford61%Rep.74%Rep. HD-18Bryan GoldbergElaine DavisD flipFlip risk63%Dem.58%Rep. HD-83Margaret PriceMark WhiteD flipFlip risk64%Dem.53%Dem. HD-30Art RymerEsther Helton-Haynes73%Rep.83%Rep. HD-49Connie CashaMike Sparks77%Rep.86%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-97Jesse HusethJohn GillespieD flipD flip95%to flip92%to flip HD-83Margaret PriceMark WhiteD flipFlip risk64%to flip53%to flip HD-18Bryan GoldbergElaine DavisD flipFlip risk63%to flip42%to flip HD-75Allie PhillipsMichael Lankford40%to flip26%to flip HD-30Art RymerEsther Helton-Haynes27%to flip17%to flip HD-49Connie CashaMike Sparks23%to flip14%to flip HD-27Paige QuirinMichele Reneau14%to flip8%to flip HD-34Owen FarnsworthTim Rudd14%to flip9%to flip HD-13Brett WindrowRobert Stevens10%to flip6%to flip HD-26Nathan DentonGreg Martin9%to flip5%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

50 for D control →D majority →← R majority253035404550
50 for D control →D majority →← R majority20253035404550

Every race

99 races, 39 without a contest between the major parties.

99 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
HD-1
● No Democrat● Jessica Means
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+55—
HD-2
● No Democrat● Gary Stidham
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+52—
HD-3
● Lori Love● Timothy HillINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+48.5R+61.1Solid RSolid RR+65—
HD-4
● No Democrat● Renea JonesINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+62—
HD-5
● Catherine Bacon● David B. HawkINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+48.0R+61.1Solid RSolid RR+65—
HD-6
● Brad Batt● Tim HicksINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.8R+36.6Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-7
● Sarah Jayne Della Vecchia● Rebecca Alexander
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+23.4R+31.2Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-8
● Hilary Trudell● Jordan Henderson
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.8R+46.5Solid RSolid RR+51—
HD-9
● No Democrat● Gary HicksINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+71—
HD-10
● No Democrat● Rick EldridgeINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+61—
HD-11
● Sheila Grooms McMahan● Kenny Cody
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.0R+63.4Solid RSolid RR+68—
HD-12
● No Democrat● Fred AtchleyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+60—
HD-13
● Brett Windrow● Robert StevensINC
10%90%
6%94%
R+9.1R+15.0Likely RLikely RR+20—
HD-14
● Lindsay Young Honaker● Jason ZacharyINC
7%93%
6%94%
R+11.7R+16.6Likely RLikely RR+23—
HD-15
● Sam McKenzieINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+37—
HD-16
● Eliza Boles● Michele CarringerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+22.7R+30.6Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-17
● No Democrat● Andrew FarmerINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+63—
HD-18D flipFlip risk
● Bryan Goldberg● Elaine DavisINC
63%37%
42%58%
D+2.4R+1.9Lean DToss-upR+8—
HD-19
● Jenny Fowler● Dave WrightINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.2R+45.5Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-20
● Karen Gertz● Tom StinnettINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.1R+39.1Solid RSolid RR+44—
HD-21
● No Democrat● Lowell RussellINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+57—
HD-22
● No Democrat● Dan HowellINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+68—
HD-23
● No Democrat● Mark CochranINCAlso: Jeremy Bromwell (I), Jason Hitt (I)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+66—
HD-24
● Daniel Jones● Kevin RaperINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.0R+47.5Solid RSolid RR+52—
HD-25
● Monica Mowdy● Cameron SextonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.5R+54.2Solid RSolid RR+59—
HD-26
● Nathan Denton● Greg MartinINC
9%91%
5%95%
R+10.0R+16.4Likely RLikely RR+22—
HD-27
● Paige Quirin● Michele ReneauINC
14%86%
8%92%
R+8.0R+14.1Likely RLikely RR+20—
HD-28
● Yusuf HakeemINC● No RepublicanAlso: Demetrus Coonrod (I), Johnny Horne (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+51—
HD-29
● Ryan Scofield● Greg VitalINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+22.6R+30.5Solid RSolid RR+35—
HD-30
● Art Rymer● Esther Helton-HaynesINC
27%73%
17%83%
R+4.5R+9.2Lean RLikely RR+15—
HD-31
● Michael Woodlee● Andy Swafford
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.9R+63.3Solid RSolid RR+67—
HD-32
● Ali Simpson● Jack Stockton
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.5R+49.1Solid RSolid RR+53—
HD-33
● Anne Backus● Rick ScarbroughINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+18.5R+25.9Solid RSolid RR+31—
HD-34
● Owen Farnsworth● Tim RuddINC
14%86%
9%91%
R+8.0R+13.2Likely RLikely RR+19—
HD-35
● Phil Barnes● William SlaterINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+28.0R+37.5Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-36
● No Democrat● Noah Smith
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+70—
HD-37
● Mary Ann Young● Charlie BaumINC
8%92%
6%94%
R+10.6R+15.5Likely RLikely RR+21—
HD-38
● Seth McMillan● Kelly KeislingINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+55.0R+70.1Solid RSolid RR+74—
HD-39
● No Democrat● Iris RudderINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+54—
HD-40
● Daniel Hawthorne● Michael HaleINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+47.5R+58.7Solid RSolid RR+63—
HD-41
● R. Jason Goodman● Ed ButlerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+51.0R+63.9Solid RSolid RR+68—
HD-42
● Trenton Strode● Ryan WilliamsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.2R+40.5Solid RSolid RR+45—
HD-43
● Samantha Petit● Paul SherrellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.9R+55.7Solid RSolid RR+60—
HD-44
● Latoya Holcomb● William LamberthINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.8R+44.7Solid RSolid RR+49—
HD-45
● Mandy Cook● Brian Stewart
1%99%
<1%>99%
R+19.8R+30.6Solid RSolid RR+35—
HD-46
● Dominic Howard● Clark BoydINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.9R+42.6Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-47
● Mike Stein● Rush BrickenINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.2R+53.4Solid RSolid RR+58—
HD-48
● Matt Ferry● Bryan TerryINC
3%97%
2%98%
R+14.5R+20.5Solid RSolid RR+26—
HD-49
● Connie Casha● Mike SparksINC
23%77%
14%86%
R+5.1R+10.4Lean RLikely RR+16—
HD-50
● Bo MitchellINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+6—
HD-51
● Aftyn BehnINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+41—
HD-52
● Justin JonesINC● Michele Vetter
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+48.8D+44.4Solid DSolid DD+39—
HD-53
● Jason PowellINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+27—
HD-54
● Vincent B. DixieINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+63—
HD-55
● John Ray ClemmonsINC● Jayla Thomas
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+56.2D+50.3Solid DSolid DD+45—
HD-56
● Bob FreemanINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+32—
HD-57
● Matt Burchfield● Susan LynnINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+20.0R+27.1Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-58
● Harold M. Love Jr.INC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+57—
HD-59
● Mark Proctor● Bill Hancock
99%1%
83%17%
D+20.5D+9.5Solid DLikely DD+3—
HD-60
● Shaundelle BrooksINC● Eva Romero
>99%<1%
95%5%
D+24.4D+16.0Solid DLikely DD+10—
HD-61
● Becca Ripley● Gino BulsoINC
5%95%
4%96%
R+12.7R+18.5Likely RSolid RR+25—
HD-62
● Brieanna Akers● Pat MarshINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.1R+54.5Solid RSolid RR+58—
HD-63
● Laura Andreson● Jake McCalmonINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+19.9R+26.6Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-64
● Craig D'Apolito● Scott CepickyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+26.3R+35.0Solid RSolid RR+40—
HD-65
● Julian Pierre-Griffin● Lee ReevesINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+20.7R+27.4Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-66
● Tamara Bavendam● Sabi "Doc" KumarINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.8R+46.5Solid RSolid RR+51—
HD-67
● Ronnie GlynnINC● Chris Lanier
98%2%
76%24%
D+16.8D+6.8Solid DLean DD+2—
HD-68
● Garfield Scott● Aron MaberryINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+20.3R+27.6Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-69
● Rachael Murray● Jody BarrettINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.9R+54.0Solid RSolid RR+58—
HD-70
● Rayanne Moos● Clay DoggettINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+47.6R+59.7Solid RSolid RR+64—
HD-71
● Matt Day● Kip CapleyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.4R+56.0Solid RSolid RR+60—
HD-72
● No Democrat● Kirk HastonINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+70—
HD-73
● No Democrat● Chris ToddINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+29—
HD-74
● No Democrat● Jay ReedyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+59—
HD-75
● Allie Phillips● Michael LankfordINC
40%61%
26%74%
R+2.0R+6.2Lean RLean RR+11—
HD-76
● No Democrat● Tandy DarbyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+57—
HD-77
● No Democrat● Rusty GrillsINCAlso: Erin Reid (I)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+61—
HD-78
● Hillary Capes-Gwinn● Perry Keenan
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.5R+42.8Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-79
● No Democrat● Brock MartinINCAlso: Kirk Carter (I)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+56—
HD-80
● Andrea Bond Johnson● Julian McTizic
99%1%
87%13%
D+20.1D+11.5Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-81
● No Democrat● Brett Giannini
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+45—
HD-82
● No Democrat● Chris HurtINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+51—
HD-83D flipFlip risk
● Margaret Price● Mark WhiteINC
64%36%
53%47%
D+2.8D+0.8Lean DToss-upR+6—
HD-84
● Joe Towns● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+78—
HD-85
● Jesse ChismINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+78—
HD-86
● Justin J. PearsonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+47—
HD-87
● Karen CamperINC● Reggie Hall
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+72.3D+73.8Solid DSolid DD+69—
HD-88
● Larry MillerINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+42—
HD-89
● Randy Debord● Justin LaffertyINC
2%98%
2%98%
R+16.1R+22.8Solid RSolid RR+29—
HD-90
● Gloria JohnsonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+15—
HD-91
● Torrey HarrisINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+74—
HD-92
● Teri Mai● Todd WarnerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.6R+41.1Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-93
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: John Bradley (I), DD Washington (I), Mitchess Morrison (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+57—
HD-94
● Francine Johnson● Ron GantINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.3R+46.0Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-95
● No Democrat● Kevin VaughanINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+32—
HD-96
● Telisa Franklin● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+49—
HD-97D flipD flip
● Jesse Huseth● John GillespieINC
95%5%
92%8%
D+13.9D+13.9Solid DLikely DD+7—
HD-98
● Antonio ParkinsonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+40—
HD-99
● No Democrat● Tom LeatherwoodINCAlso: William Mouzon (I)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+31—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).