Utah · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Utah State Senate?

15 of 29 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 15 seats make a majority. 20 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Utah State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 6.780% range 6–8
Avg. R seats: 22.380% range 21–23
Now: 6 D · 22 R · 1 other15 up this year

Republican supermajority now (22 of 29 seats; 20 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

6 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party22 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Utah State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 7.180% range 6–8
Avg. R seats: 21.980% range 21–23
Now: 6 D · 22 R · 1 other15 up this year

Republican supermajority now (22 of 29 seats; 20 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

6 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party22 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 15 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 Ind.→R.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 Ind.→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R2

Likely R1

SD-11flip

Solid R8

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up2

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R9

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Utah

Salt Lake City

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-5Christina HernandezJill KofordFlip risk61%Rep.52%Dem. SD-19Shana AndersonKirk Cullimore Jr.Flip risk67%Rep.52%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-5Christina HernandezJill KofordFlip risk39%to flip52%to flip SD-19Shana AndersonKirk Cullimore Jr.Flip risk33%to flip48%to flip SD-7Garret RushforthStephanie Hollist1%to flip4%to flip SD-18A. Dane AndersonDoug Fiefia1%to flip2%to flip SD-12Karen KwanDeidre Tyler<1%to flip2%to flip SD-23Tucker SmithKeith Grover<1%to flip1%to flip SD-6Jared NealTami Tran<1%to flip1%to flip SD-21Kandee MyersBrady Brammer<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-1Claudia BiglerScott Sandall<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-28Richard S. RobillardEvan Vickers<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

15 of 29 seats on the ballot; 14 holdovers (2 D, 12 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

15 races, 2 without a contest between the major parties.

15 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● Claudia Bigler● Scott SandallINCAlso: Julie Quinlan (FWD)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.8R+50.2	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
SD-5Flip risk	● Christina Hernandez● Jill Koford	39%61% 52%48%	R+2.2D+0.6	Lean RToss-up	R+13	—
SD-6	● Jared Neal● Tami TranAlso: Josh Smith (FWD)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.1R+25.5	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
SD-7	● Garret Rushforth● Stephanie HollistAlso: Jeffrey Ostler (CST)	1%99% 4%96%	R+20.6R+17.8	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
SD-9	● Jen PlumbINC● Thaddeus A. EvansAlso: J. Lowry Snow (FWD)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+64.5D+69.2	Solid DSolid D	D+59	—
SD-11R flipR flip	● Emily BussINC● Brooks Benson	5%95% 1%99%	R+14.6R+25.5	Likely RSolid R	R+35	—
SD-12	● Karen KwanINC● Deidre Tyler	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+26.4D+21.0	Solid DSolid D	D+7	—
SD-13	● Silvia Catten● Ryan L. MahoneyAlso: Colin Smith (FWD)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+54.2D+59.8	Solid DSolid D	D+41	—
SD-14	● Stephanie PitcherINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+32	—
SD-18	● A. Dane Anderson● Doug Fiefia	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.2R+21.1	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
SD-19Flip risk	● Shana Anderson● Kirk Cullimore Jr.INC	33%67% 48%52%	R+3.4R+0.5	Lean RToss-up	R+9	—
SD-20	● No Democrat● Ronald WintertonINCAlso: Annette McRae (FWD)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+36	—
SD-21	● Kandee Myers● Brady BrammerINCAlso: Wayne Woodfield (FWD)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.8R+38.3	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
SD-23	● Tucker Smith● Keith GroverINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.2R+24.7	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
SD-28	● Richard S. Robillard● Evan VickersINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.9R+55.1	Solid RSolid R	R+60	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. Purple marks an independent the model treats as the main challenger. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).