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Indiana · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Indiana State Senate?

25 of 50 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 26 seats make a majority. The lieutenant governor breaks ties, but passing a bill takes 26 votes. 26 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Indiana State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
12.280% range 11–14
Avg. R seats
37.880% range 36–39
Now
10 D · 40 R25 up this year

Republican supermajority now (40 of 50 seats; 26 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

10 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party40 R now

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties, but passing a bill takes 26 votes.

Republicans are very likely to control the Indiana State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
12.180% range 10–14
Avg. R seats
37.980% range 36–40
Now
10 D · 40 R25 up this year

Republican supermajority now (40 of 50 seats; 26 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

10 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party40 R now

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties, but passing a bill takes 26 votes.

26 for control
26 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 25 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D3

Likely D1

Lean D1

Toss-up0

Lean R1

Likely R2

Solid R17

Show 11 more

Solid D2

Likely D1

Lean D1

Toss-up1

Lean R1

Likely R5

Solid R14

Show 8 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Indiana

Indianapolis

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-11Gabrianna GratzolBrian Schmutzler71%Rep.76%Rep. SD-1Scott HouldiesonTrevor De VriesD flipFlip risk75%Dem.56%Dem.

Most likely to flip

SD-31Kerry ForestalJuanita AlbrightD flipD flip90%to flip82%to flip SD-1Scott HouldiesonTrevor De VriesD flipFlip risk75%to flip56%to flip SD-11Gabrianna GratzolBrian Schmutzler29%to flip24%to flip SD-45Nick MarshallChris Garten6%to flip9%to flip SD-22Natasha BakerRon Alting6%to flip19%to flip SD-4Rodney Pol Jr.Nate Uldricks5%to flip27%to flip SD-15Julie McGillLiz Brown4%to flip14%to flip SD-21Kirsten RootTracey Powell4%to flip4%to flip SD-26Andrew DaleScott Alexander3%to flip5%to flip SD-49Cindi ClaytonJim Tomes3%to flip9%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.

25 of 50 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (7 D, 18 R) serve until a later election.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

26 for D control →D majority →← R majority10152025
26 for D control →D majority →← R majority10152025

Every race

25 races, 2 without a contest between the major parties.

25 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
SD-1D flipFlip risk
● Scott Houldieson● Trevor De Vries
75%25%
56%44%
D+4.8D+1.3Lean DToss-upR+6—
SD-4
● Rodney Pol Jr.INC● Nate Uldricks
95%5%
73%27%
D+12.9D+5.7Solid DLean DEven—
SD-6
● Kate-Lynn Holley● Jay Starkey
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.6R+28.6Solid RSolid RR+36—
SD-11
● Gabrianna Gratzol● Brian Schmutzler
29%71%
24%76%
R+3.9R+6.4Lean RLean RR+13—
SD-14
● Blaine Sefton● Tyler JohnsonINC
2%98%
4%96%
R+15.9R+17.1Solid RSolid RR+24—
SD-15
● Julie McGill● Liz BrownINC
4%96%
14%86%
R+14.7R+10.4Solid RLikely RR+18—
SD-17
● Cynthia Wehr● Chris Parker
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.3R+39.9Solid RSolid RR+47—
SD-19
● Timothy Murphy● Blake Fiechter
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+28.1R+31.0Solid RSolid RR+38—
SD-21
● Kirsten Root● Tracey Powell
4%96%
4%96%
R+12.9R+17.7Solid RSolid RR+25—
SD-22
● Natasha Baker● Ron AltingINC
6%94%
19%81%
R+13.1R+8.3Likely RLikely RR+15—
SD-23
● David Sanders● Spencer DeeryINCAlso: Joshua Brant (I)
1%99%
3%97%
R+17.8R+20.0Solid RSolid RR+26—
SD-25
● Tamie Dixon-Tatum● Mike GaskillINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+18.3R+21.2Solid RSolid RR+28—
SD-26
● Andrew Dale● Scott AlexanderINC
3%97%
5%95%
R+14.1R+16.3Solid RLikely RR+23—
SD-27
● Ron Itnyre● Jeff RaatzINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.9R+37.0Solid RSolid RR+43—
SD-29
● Kristina Moorhead● John Ruckelshaus
99%1%
98%2%
D+19.4D+22.2Solid DSolid DD+15—
SD-31D flipD flip
● Kerry Forestal● Juanita Albright
90%10%
82%18%
D+9.3D+8.9Likely DLikely DD+2—
SD-38
● Kacey Blundell● Greg GoodeINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+19.2R+21.4Solid RSolid RR+28—
SD-39
● No Democrat● Jeff Ellington
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+56—
SD-41
● Ross Thomas● Michelle Davis
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.4R+26.2Solid RSolid RR+33—
SD-43
● Byron Holland● Randy MaxwellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.7R+46.2Solid RSolid RR+53—
SD-45
● Nick Marshall● Chris GartenINCAlso: Larry Mahaney (L)
6%94%
9%91%
R+11.7R+12.7Likely RLikely RR+19—
SD-46
● Allissa Impink● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+42—
SD-47
● Ethan Sweetland-May● Gary ByrneINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+23.0R+26.4Solid RSolid RR+33—
SD-48
● Brad Hochgesang● Daryl SchmittINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.6R+37.6Solid RSolid RR+44—
SD-49
● Cindi Clayton● Jim TomesINC
3%97%
9%91%
R+16.6R+13.1Solid RLikely RR+21—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).