Ohio · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Ohio House of Representatives?

All 99 seats are on the ballot. 50 seats make a majority. 60 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Ohio House of Representatives (97%).

Democrats

chance of control

Republicans

97%

Avg. D seats: 41.780% range 37–46
Avg. R seats: 57.380% range 53–62
Now: 34 D · 65 R99 up this year

Republican supermajority now (65 of 99 seats; 60 needed for three-fifths): 28% chance it holds · 72% chance it's broken.

34 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party65 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Ohio House of Representatives (97%).

Democrats

chance of control

Republicans

97%

Avg. D seats: 41.380% range 36–47
Avg. R seats: 57.780% range 52–63
Now: 34 D · 65 R99 up this year

Republican supermajority now (65 of 99 seats; 60 needed for three-fifths): 34% chance it holds · 66% chance it's broken.

34 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party65 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 99 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

7 seats projected to flip: 7 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D32

Show 26 more

Likely D4

Lean D5

Toss-up2

Lean R3

Likely R9

Solid R44

Show 38 more

HD-12
HD-30
HD-32
HD-40
HD-46
HD-50
HD-51
HD-54
HD-55
HD-62
HD-63
HD-64
HD-65
HD-67
HD-69
HD-71
HD-76
HD-77
HD-78
HD-79
HD-80
HD-81
HD-82
HD-83
HD-84
HD-85
HD-86
HD-87
HD-88
HD-90
HD-91
HD-92
HD-93
HD-94
HD-95
HD-96
HD-97
HD-98

Solid D28

Show 22 more

Likely D4

Lean D8

Toss-up3

Lean R3

Likely R10

Solid R43

Show 37 more

HD-12
HD-30
HD-32
HD-40
HD-46
HD-51
HD-54
HD-55
HD-62
HD-63
HD-64
HD-65
HD-67
HD-69
HD-71
HD-76
HD-77
HD-78
HD-79
HD-80
HD-81
HD-82
HD-83
HD-84
HD-85
HD-86
HD-87
HD-88
HD-90
HD-91
HD-92
HD-93
HD-94
HD-95
HD-96
HD-97
HD-98

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Ohio

Cleveland

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-44David FournierEdward SchimmelFlip risk51%Rep.63%Rep. HD-17Megan CoyMike DovillaFlip riskFlip risk60%Dem.57%Dem. HD-39Daquan NealMark CampbellD flipFlip risk60%Dem.55%Dem. HD-52Mike BakerNathan ManningD flipD flip64%Dem.64%Dem. HD-60Shelby KimballBrian LorenzD flipD flip66%Dem.72%Dem. HD-49Krista AllisonJim ThomasD flipD flip70%Dem.72%Dem. HD-29Jonathan BradnerCindy Abrams71%Rep.66%Rep. HD-75Jake KielmeyerHaraz Ghanbari71%Rep.62%Rep. HD-37Tom HernerTom YoungFlip risk78%Rep.52%Rep. HD-36Rose LounsburyAndrea WhiteD flipD flip80%Dem.81%Dem.

Most likely to flip

HD-31J. Noah SpinnerMike KahoeD flipD flip85%to flip76%to flip HD-35Samantha SalamonVik SandhuD flipD flip85%to flip71%to flip HD-36Rose LounsburyAndrea WhiteD flipD flip80%to flip81%to flip HD-49Krista AllisonJim ThomasD flipD flip70%to flip72%to flip HD-60Shelby KimballBrian LorenzD flipD flip66%to flip72%to flip HD-52Mike BakerNathan ManningD flipD flip64%to flip64%to flip HD-39Daquan NealMark CampbellD flipFlip risk60%to flip55%to flip HD-17Megan CoyMike DovillaFlip riskFlip risk60%to flip57%to flip HD-44David FournierEdward SchimmelFlip risk49%to flip37%to flip HD-29Jonathan BradnerCindy Abrams29%to flip34%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

99 races, 11 without a contest between the major parties.

99 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Dontavius JarrellsINC● Joel Greff	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+65.1D+68.5	Solid DSolid D	D+63	—
HD-2	● Charity Martin King● No RepublicanAlso: Steve Dodge (L)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+52	—
HD-3	● Ismail MohamedINC● Bernedine Kennedy Kent	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+62.1D+67.1	Solid DSolid D	D+61	—
HD-4	● Beryl PiccolantonioINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+18	—
HD-5	● Meredith Lawson-RoweINC● Richard Cole	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+32.4D+23.6	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
HD-6	● Christine CockleyINC● Matthew JacksonAlso: Jennifer Crayton (L)	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.5D+20.1	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
HD-7	● Ukeme Jeter● William Mercier	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+51.9D+49.4	Solid DSolid D	D+43	—
HD-8	● Anita SomaniINC● Kelly Hunter-Kalagidis	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.7D+40.0	Solid DSolid D	D+33	—
HD-9	● Munira AbdullahiINC● Bruce EuansAlso: Steven Linnabary (L)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.7D+43.8	Solid DSolid D	D+37	—
HD-10	● Mark SigristINC● Denise D'Angelo	94%6% 75%25%	D+12.0D+6.2	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
HD-11	● Crystal LettINC● Shawn Kaeser	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.7D+22.3	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
HD-12	● Liam Strasburg● Brian StewartINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.8R+38.6	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
HD-13	● Tristan RaderINC● Billy Fronimo	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+55.8D+56.6	Solid DSolid D	D+50	—
HD-14	● Sean BrennanINC● David J. Morgan	97%3% 77%23%	D+15.5D+7.0	Solid DLean D	R+1	—
HD-15	● Chris GlassburnINC● Daniel Conway	99%1% 89%11%	D+17.8D+11.8	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-16	● Scott DiMauro● Sophia Tjotjos	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.7D+26.6	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
HD-17Flip riskFlip risk	● Megan Coy● Mike DovillaINC	60%40% 57%43%	D+1.8D+1.7	Toss-upToss-up	R+6	—
HD-18	● Davida Russell● Maureen Lynn	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+78.8D+82.7	Solid DSolid D	D+78	—
HD-19	● Nicole Sigurdson● Ed Hargate	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+21.4D+19.6	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-20	● Eugene Miller● Donna Walker-Brown	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+74.4D+79.8	Solid DSolid D	D+75	—
HD-21	● Eric SynenbergINC● Tina Barhams	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+59.1D+60.3	Solid DSolid D	D+55	—
HD-22	● Darnell BrewerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+70	—
HD-23	● Dan TroyINC● Julie Belich	95%5% 75%25%	D+13.0D+6.1	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
HD-24	● Dani IsaacsohnINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+46	—
HD-25	● Cecil ThomasINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+67	—
HD-26	● Ashley Bryant BaileyINC● Tom Brinkman	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+48.6D+49.3	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
HD-27	● Rachel BakerINC● Elizabeth Maier	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+23.2D+20.4	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-28	● Karen BrownleeINC● Jill Cole	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.5D+22.0	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-29	● Jonathan Bradner● Cindy AbramsINC	29%71% 34%66%	R+4.0R+3.8	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
HD-30	● Caleb Price● Mike OdiosoINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.8R+26.9	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-31D flipD flip	● J. Noah Spinner● Mike Kahoe	85%15% 76%24%	D+7.5D+6.7	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
HD-32	● No Democrat● Jack DanielsINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+14	—
HD-33	● Veronica SimsINC● Napoleon Rodgers Jr.	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+52.4D+50.6	Solid DSolid D	D+45	—
HD-34	● Derrick HallINC● Craig Shubert	99%1% 94%6%	D+18.8D+15.4	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
HD-35D flipD flip	● Samantha Salamon● Vik Sandhu	85%15% 71%29%	D+7.4D+5.1	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
HD-36D flipD flip	● Rose Lounsbury● Andrea WhiteINC	80%20% 81%19%	D+6.2D+8.3	Lean DLikely D	D+1	—
HD-37Flip risk	● Tom Herner● Tom YoungINC	22%78% 48%52%	R+6.3R+0.5	Lean RToss-up	R+8	—
HD-38	● Desiree TimsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+51	—
HD-39D flipFlip risk	● Daquan Neal● Mark Campbell	60%40% 55%45%	D+1.8D+1.3	Lean DToss-up	R+6	—
HD-40	● Timothy Hornbacker● Rodney CreechINCAlso: Joshua Umbaugh (L)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.8R+44.4	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-41	● Erika WhiteINC● Ian Chamberlin	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.8D+25.0	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
HD-42	● Elgin Rogers Jr.INC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+30	—
HD-43	● Michele GrimINC● David KarmolAlso: Zach Hall (L)	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.6D+26.4	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
HD-44Flip risk	● David Fournier● Edward Schimmel	49%51% 37%63%	R+0.1R+3.0	Toss-upLean R	R+10	—
HD-45	● Jayson Rasheed● Jennifer GrossINC	6%94% 10%90%	R+11.7R+12.4	Likely RLikely R	R+19	—
HD-46	● Benjamin McCall● Thomas HallINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.0R+22.6	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-47	● Jordan Haire● Diane MullinsINCAlso: Justin Purviance (L)	3%97% 4%96%	R+14.8R+17.0	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-48	● Nick Morris● Christina Hagan	2%98% 4%96%	R+17.1R+18.1	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-49D flipD flip	● Krista Allison● Jim ThomasINC	70%30% 72%28%	D+3.8D+5.5	Lean DLean D	R+2	—
HD-50	● Rylan Finzer● Matthew KishmanINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+18.7R+20.6	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-51	● Amanda Fontana● Jodi SalvoINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.5R+37.4	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-52D flipD flip	● Mike Baker● Nathan Manning	64%36% 64%36%	D+2.5D+3.4	Lean DLean D	R+4	—
HD-53	● Matt Lundy● Bradley Lacko	98%2% 87%13%	D+16.4D+10.7	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-54	● Brenda Buchanan● Kellie DeeterINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.1R+22.4	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-55	● Paul Kurtz● Michelle TeskaINCAlso: Philip Pirdy (L)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.0R+36.6	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
HD-56	● Laalitya Acharya● Adam MathewsINC	7%93% 12%88%	R+11.0R+11.2	Likely RLikely R	R+19	—
HD-57	● Rick Walker● Jesse Styles	8%92% 7%93%	R+10.2R+14.0	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-58	● John Boccieri● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+7	—
HD-59	● Wayne Penny Jr.● Tex FisherINC	3%97% 5%95%	R+14.4R+16.0	Solid RLikely R	R+23	—
HD-60D flipD flip	● Shelby Kimball● Brian LorenzINC	66%34% 72%28%	D+3.2D+5.6	Lean DLean D	R+1	—
HD-61	● Vince McGrail● Shawn Stevens	10%90% 8%92%	R+9.5R+13.8	Likely RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-62	● Ian Schwartz● Jean SchmidtINCAlso: Ron Grethel (L)	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.4R+22.7	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-63	● Debbie Davidson● Adam BirdINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.6R+44.5	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-64	● No Democrat● Nick SantucciINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+11	—
HD-65	● Lorna Westlake● David ThomasINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+22.6R+20.7	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-66	● Heather Sample● Sean HutsonINCAlso: Justin Peroli (L)	2%98% 4%96%	R+15.8R+17.6	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-67	● Heather Sample● Melanie MillerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.2R+29.8	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-68	● Mason Blankenship● Thaddeus ClaggettINC	6%94% 8%92%	R+11.7R+13.5	Likely RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-69	● Amy Rigsby● Kevin D. MillerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.1R+44.4	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-70	● Kim McCarthy● Brian LamptonINC	8%92% 13%87%	R+10.5R+10.9	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-71	● Krista Magaw● Levi DeanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.3R+33.7	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-72	● Jeff Clapper● Heidi WorkmanINCAlso: Michael Frike (L)	9%91% 13%87%	R+9.5R+10.4	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-73	● Whittney Wood● Jeff LaReINC	9%91% 14%86%	R+9.7R+10.0	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-74	● Darrell Jackson● Bernard WillisINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.9R+18.7	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-75	● Jake Kielmeyer● Haraz GhanbariINC	29%71% 38%62%	R+4.0R+2.8	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-76	● Colton Stidam● Marilyn JohnINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.0R+35.6	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-77	● Brooke Dillon● Meredith CraigINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.8R+32.2	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-78	● Jeffrey Givan● Matt HuffmanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.3R+39.8	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-79	● Bob Guy● Monica Robb BlasdelINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.4R+42.7	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
HD-80	● Katie Wagner● Johnathan NewmanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.7R+41.9	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
HD-81	● David Swanson● Patti Rockey	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.3R+39.4	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
HD-82	● Maddux McCray● Roy KlopfensteinINCAlso: Christopher Elder (L)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.6R+49.5	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
HD-83	● Sheila Coressel● Ty MathewsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.4R+38.7	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-84	● Adrienne Childrey● Angela KingINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+51.6R+58.4	Solid RSolid R	R+65	—
HD-85	● Victoria Maddox● Tim BarhorstINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.9R+51.2	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-86	● Kent Halloran● Ben Weber	1%99% 1%99%	R+20.9R+25.7	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-87	● Lora Covrett● Jeffrey McClain	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.8R+47.8	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-88	● Aaron Jones● Gary ClickINCAlso: Benjamin Machoukas (L)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.7R+26.7	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-89	● Easton Retzke● D.J. SwearingenINC	9%91% 13%87%	R+9.9R+11.0	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-90	● Collin Docterman● Justin PizzuliINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.8R+47.6	Solid RSolid R	R+53	—
HD-91	● Amy Wright● Bob PetersonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.4R+52.0	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
HD-92	● Sarah Seniff● Mark JohnsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.4R+35.9	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-93	● Jessica Harper● Jason StephensINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+42.9R+48.4	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-94	● Wenda Sheard● Kevin RitterINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.6R+32.6	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-95	● Paul Cameron● Ty MooreINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.5R+27.5	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-96	● Charrie Foglio● Ron FergusonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.7R+38.2	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-97	● No Democrat● Adam HolmesINCAlso: Tim Godwin (L)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+44	—
HD-98	● Scott Grund● Mark HinerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.6R+45.9	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-99	● Louis Murphy● Sarah Fowler ArthurINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+17.0R+18.8	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).