Connecticut · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Connecticut House of Representatives?

All 151 seats are on the ballot. 76 seats make a majority. 101 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Connecticut House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 122.980% range 114–131
Avg. R seats: 28.180% range 20–37
Now: 102 D · 49 R151 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (102 of 151 seats; 101 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

102 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party49 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Connecticut House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 127.380% range 118–135
Avg. R seats: 23.780% range 16–33
Now: 102 D · 49 R151 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (102 of 151 seats; 101 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

102 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party49 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 151 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

20 seats projected to flip: 20 R→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

27 seats projected to flip: 27 R→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Likely D8

Lean D10

Toss-up5

Lean R5

Likely R8

Solid R11

Likely D20

Lean D10

Toss-up5

Lean R7

Likely R5

Solid R6

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Connecticut

Hartford

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-112Wiley MullinsTony ScottFlip riskD flip53%Dem.70%Dem. HD-77DeWayne Wynn Jr.Cara Pavalock-D'AmatoFlip riskD flip56%Rep.82%Dem. HD-108Anne WeisbergPat CallahanFlip riskD flip56%Dem.72%Dem. HD-119Alex ArmstrongKathy KennedyFlip riskD flip59%Dem.82%Dem. HD-62Kim BeckerMark AndersonFlip riskD flip59%Dem.68%Dem. HD-71Stephen Farrucci IIIWilliam PizzutoD flip62%Rep.76%Dem. HD-61James MolTami ZawistowskiD flipD flip63%Dem.81%Dem. HD-48Bob FernandezMark DeCaprioD flipD flip63%Dem.71%Dem. HD-122Mandy KilmartinBen McGortyD flipD flip63%Dem.78%Dem. HD-90David FritzCraig FishbeinD flipD flip63%Dem.82%Dem.

Most likely to flip

HD-23Jane WisialowskiBarbara LabriolaD flipD flip99%to flip98%to flip HD-14Harrison AmadasunTom DelnickiD flipD flip98%to flip99%to flip HD-149Amiel GoldbergTina CourpasD flipD flip97%to flip99%to flip HD-141Erika ProcacciniTracy MarraD flipD flip96%to flip99%to flip HD-125Meredith TobitschTom O'DeaD flipD flip96%to flip99%to flip HD-106Michelle Embree KuMitch BolinskyD flipD flip91%to flip96%to flip HD-43Bill HeughinsGreg HowardD flipD flip91%to flip96%to flip HD-55Ellen PaulSteve WeirD flipD flip85%to flip93%to flip HD-35Cinzia LettieriChris AniskovichD flipD flip83%to flip90%to flip HD-123Bill MeccaDavid RutiglianoD flipD flip81%to flip91%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Fusion voting

Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

151 races, 36 without a contest between the major parties.

151 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Matthew RitterINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+69	—
HD-2	● Raghib Allie-BrennanINC● Deborah Rizzo	99%1% 97%3%	D+19.5D+19.4	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
HD-3	● Minnie GonzalezINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+66	—
HD-4	● Julio ConcepcionINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+66	—
HD-5	● Kyle Anderson● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+57	—
HD-6	● James SanchezINC● Nicole Roscoe	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+60.0D+69.0	Solid DSolid D	D+64	—
HD-7	● Joshua M. HallINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+71	—
HD-8D flipD flip	● Francis Lombard● William Gifford	77%23% 74%26%	D+5.2D+5.9	Lean DLean D	D+3	—
HD-9	● Jason RojasINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+35	—
HD-10	● Angie Parkinson● Chris Tierinni	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.0D+46.5	Solid DSolid D	D+40	—
HD-11	● Patrick BigginsINC● Salema Davis	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.6D+45.5	Solid DSolid D	D+40	—
HD-12	● Geoff LuxenbergINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+35	—
HD-13	● Jason DoucetteINC● Bianca Stanescu	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.6D+38.5	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-14D flipD flip	● Harrison Amadasun● Tom DelnickiINC	98%2% 99%1%	D+18.2D+28.3	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-15	● Bobby GibsonINC● Seth Pitts	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+67.3D+73.6	Solid DSolid D	D+69	—
HD-16	● Melissa OsborneINC● Jason Levy	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.8D+35.8	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-17	● Eleni Kavros DeGrawINC● Andrew Ziemba	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.2D+26.0	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
HD-18	● Tiffani McGinnis● Phillip Tummescheit	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+55.0D+59.6	Solid DSolid D	D+53	—
HD-19	● Olalye Onikuyide● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+45	—
HD-20	● Kate FarrarINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+33	—
HD-21	● Mike DemiccoINC● Gary Palumbo	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.0D+27.0	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-22	● Rebecca MartinezINC● Richard Mette	92%8% 75%25%	D+10.8D+6.3	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
HD-23D flipD flip	● Jane Wisialowski● Barbara Labriola	99%1% 98%2%	D+18.6D+22.1	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
HD-24	● Manny SanchezINC● Tina Santana	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.1D+33.8	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-25	● Iris SanchezINC● James Vaughan	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.2D+35.7	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
HD-26	● David DeFronzoINC● Sal Simsek	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+30.4D+32.4	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-27	● Gary TurcoINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+15	—
HD-28	● Amy Morrin BelloINC● William Davidson	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+25.2D+23.6	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-29	● Kerry Szeps WoodINC● Stanley Stasiowski	99%1% 96%4%	D+20.8D+18.2	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
HD-30Flip risk	● Linda Pierce● Donna VeachINC	18%82% 50%50%	R+7.3D+0.1	Likely RToss-up	R+6	—
HD-31	● Moses CarelusINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jill Barry (I)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+26	—
HD-32D flipD flip	● Marilyn Teitelbaum Dworkin● Christie CarpinoINC	72%28% 93%7%	D+4.7D+14.4	Lean DLikely D	D+9	—
HD-33	● Brandon ChafeeINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+31	—
HD-34D flipD flip	● Meghan Rosenfeld● Melissa Ziobron	71%29% 73%27%	D+3.9D+5.8	Lean DLean D	D+2	—
HD-35D flipD flip	● Cinzia Lettieri● Chris AniskovichINC	83%17% 90%10%	D+7.4D+12.5	Likely DLikely D	D+8	—
HD-36	● Renee LaMark MuirINC● Guy Tuccero	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+22.3D+20.7	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
HD-37	● Nick MenapaceINC● Anne Santoro	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.1D+22.8	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
HD-38	● Nick GauthierINC● John Foley	98%3% 92%8%	D+14.7D+13.5	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
HD-39	● Anthony NolanINC● John Russell	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+51.3D+52.7	Solid DSolid D	D+47	—
HD-40	● Dan GaiewskiINC● Isabelle Roode	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.7D+37.6	Solid DSolid D	D+32	—
HD-41	● Aundre BumgardnerINC● Thaler Hefel	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.0D+31.2	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-42	● Savet ConstantineINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+29	—
HD-43D flipD flip	● Bill Heughins● Greg HowardINC	91%9% 96%4%	D+10.6D+17.2	Likely DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-44	● Samantha Derenthal● Anne DauphinaisINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+18.9R+19.0	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-45	● Matt Danieluk● Brian LanoueINC	9%91% 21%79%	R+10.2R+7.6	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
HD-46	● Derell WilsonINC● Marica Wilbur	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.5D+26.6	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-47	● Marcus Palumbo● Doug DubitskyINC	12%88% 28%72%	R+8.9R+5.5	Likely RLean R	R+10	—
HD-48D flipD flip	● Bob Fernandez● Mark DeCaprioINC	63%37% 71%29%	D+2.3D+5.0	Lean DLean D	D+2	—
HD-49	● Susan JohnsonINC● Brian Saucier	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+33.6D+28.5	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-50	● Pat BoydINC● Anthony Emilio	98%2% 82%18%	D+17.6D+8.5	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-51	● Lina Wagner● Chris StewartINC	4%96% 10%90%	R+13.3R+12.8	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-52	● Vincent Tocci● Kurt VailINC	9%91% 17%83%	R+9.9R+8.9	Likely RLikely R	R+13	—
HD-53D flipD flip	● Michelle Cunningham● Tammy NuccioINC	76%24% 91%9%	D+5.5D+13.2	Lean DLikely D	D+10	—
HD-54	● Gregory HaddadINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+51	—
HD-55D flipD flip	● Ellen Paul● Steve WeirINC	85%15% 93%7%	D+8.3D+14.8	Likely DLikely D	D+11	—
HD-56	● Kevin BrownINC● Andy Tedford	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.2D+26.3	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
HD-57	● Jaime FosterINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+3	—
HD-58	● John SantanellaINC● Marie Pyznar	98%2% 91%9%	D+16.6D+12.8	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-59D flipD flip	● Rick LeBorious● Carol HallINC	79%21% 86%14%	D+5.8D+10.4	Lean DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-60	● Jane GaribayINC● Chantelle Ankerman	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.4D+45.8	Solid DSolid D	D+39	—
HD-61D flipD flip	● James Mol● Tami ZawistowskiINC	63%37% 81%19%	D+2.4D+8.3	Lean DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-62Flip riskD flip	● Kim Becker● Mark AndersonINC	59%41% 68%32%	D+1.7D+4.5	Toss-upLean D	D+1	—
HD-63	● Caitlin Hall● Jay CaseINC	4%96% 17%83%	R+14.2R+8.9	Solid RLikely R	R+14	—
HD-64	● Maria HornINC● Katelynn Borraiz	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+33.9D+29.8	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
HD-65	● Edward Corey● Joe CaninoINC	18%82% 26%74%	R+6.4R+5.9	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
HD-66Flip risk	● Suzanne Lovig● Karen Reddington-HughesINC	30%70% 42%58%	R+3.7R+1.8	Lean RToss-up	R+5	—
HD-67D flip	● Alexandra Thomas● Bill BuckbeeINC	34%66% 60%40%	R+3.1D+2.4	Lean RLean D	R+3	—
HD-68	● No Democrat● Joseph PollettaINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+27	—
HD-69	● No Democrat● Jason BuchsbaumINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	D+3	—
HD-70Flip risk	● Jeff Litke● Seth BronkoINC	29%71% 44%56%	R+4.0R+1.4	Lean RToss-up	R+9	—
HD-71D flip	● Stephen Farrucci III● William PizzutoINC	38%62% 76%24%	R+2.6D+6.7	Lean RLean D	R+1	—
HD-72	● Larry ButlerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+19	—
HD-73	● Ronald Napoli Jr.INC● Terence Lott Sr.	99%1% 97%3%	D+24.2D+19.0	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-74	● Michael DiGiovancarloINC● Ollie Gray III	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+26.0D+20.2	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-75	● Geraldo ReyesINC● Faithalee Goclowski	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+30.6D+24.0	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-76	● Jennifer Davis● John PiscopoINC	3%97% 11%89%	R+13.9R+11.9	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-77Flip riskD flip	● DeWayne Wynn Jr.● Cara Pavalock-D'AmatoINC	44%56% 82%18%	R+1.3D+8.6	Toss-upLikely D	D+1	—
HD-78	● Sean Moore● Joe HoxhaINC	5%95% 27%73%	R+13.9R+5.7	Solid RLean R	R+12	—
HD-79	● Mary FortierINC● Cheryl Thibeault	95%5% 86%14%	D+12.8D+10.5	Solid DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-80	● Cheryl Hilton● Gale MastrofrancescoINC	1%99% 5%95%	R+20.2R+16.5	Solid RSolid R	R+22	—
HD-81Flip risk	● Chris PoulosINC● Timothy Wilk	86%14% 60%40%	D+8.4D+2.2	Likely DToss-up	R+4	—
HD-82	● Michael QuinnINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+15	—
HD-83	● Chad Cardillo● Bob Ham	96%4% 91%9%	D+13.6D+12.8	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-84	● Hilda SantiagoINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+18	—
HD-85	● Samuel Carmody● Tom Laffin	95%5% 90%10%	D+12.4D+12.0	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-86	● No Democrat● Vincent CandeloraINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+3	—
HD-87Flip risk	● Kathleen Kimball● Dave YaccarinoINC	21%79% 49%51%	R+6.4R+0.2	Lean RToss-up	R+7	—
HD-88	● Josh ElliottINC● Hudson Molinari	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+52.9D+54.6	Solid DSolid D	D+47	—
HD-89	● No Democrat● Lezlye ZupkusINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+7	—
HD-90D flipD flip	● David Fritz● Craig FishbeinINC	63%37% 82%18%	D+2.5D+8.6	Lean DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-91	● Laurie SweetINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+50	—
HD-92	● Eli Sabin● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+68	—
HD-93	● Toni WalkerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+68	—
HD-94	● Steven WinterINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+74	—
HD-95	● Juan CandelariaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+63	—
HD-96	● Roland LemarINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+68	—
HD-97	● Wildaliz Bermudez● Kimberely DeMayo	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.6D+64.7	Solid DSolid D	D+59	—
HD-98	● Moira RaderINC● Carlyle Ciccone	>99%<1% >99%1%	D+32.2D+30.8	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-99	● Karen Martin● Joseph ZulloINC	13%87% 39%61%	R+8.9R+2.6	Likely RLean R	R+10	—
HD-100	● Kai Juanna BeltonINC● Susan Manke	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.4D+37.5	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-101	● John-Michael ParkerINC● Mary Ann Connelly	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+22.5D+22.7	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-102	● Robin ComeyINC● Paul Crisci	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.1D+21.7	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-103	● Liz LinehanINC● Jeff Weiss	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+32.1D+27.5	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-104	● Kara RochelleINC● Daniel Sexton	96%4% 85%16%	D+14.6D+9.8	Solid DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-105	● Josh Beaupre● Nicole Klarides-DitriaINC	3%97% 18%82%	R+16.1R+8.5	Solid RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-106D flipD flip	● Michelle Embree Ku● Mitch BolinskyINC	91%9% 96%4%	D+10.8D+17.4	Likely DSolid D	D+11	—
HD-107D flipD flip	● Julie Kerton● Marty FoncelloINC	64%36% 80%20%	D+2.8D+8.2	Lean DLikely D	D+1	—
HD-108Flip riskD flip	● Anne Weisberg● Pat CallahanINC	56%44% 72%28%	D+1.2D+5.4	Toss-upLean D	R+2	—
HD-109	● Farley SantosINC● Ed Vachovetz	99%1% 96%4%	D+19.8D+18.2	Solid DSolid D	D+10	—
HD-110	● Bob GodfreyINC● Anthony Rongetti	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.3D+35.9	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
HD-111	● Aimee Berger-GirvaloINC● Blake Consentino	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.5D+33.9	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
HD-112Flip riskD flip	● Wiley Mullins● Tony ScottINC	53%47% 70%30%	D+0.6D+5.1	Toss-upLean D	R+2	—
HD-113	● Bryan Lizotte● Joe Lauretti	15%85% 40%60%	R+8.0R+2.4	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
HD-114	● Mary WelanderINC● Brooke Hopkins	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+31.2D+27.4	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-115	● William Heffernan IIIINC● Victor Borras	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+33.7D+28.7	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-116	● Trenee McGeeINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+29	—
HD-117	● MJ ShannonINC● Raymond Collins III	97%3% 93%7%	D+14.4D+14.2	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
HD-118	● Toni Lombardi● Steve Visconti	92%8% 88%12%	D+10.5D+11.2	Likely DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-119Flip riskD flip	● Alex Armstrong● Kathy KennedyINC	59%41% 82%18%	D+1.8D+8.6	Toss-upLikely D	D+2	—
HD-120	● Kaitlyn ShakeINC● Troy Gargiulo	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+25.9D+26.4	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-121	● Joe GreskoINC● Rafael Irizarry	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.4D+32.5	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-122D flipD flip	● Mandy Kilmartin● Ben McGortyINC	63%37% 78%22%	D+2.4D+7.2	Lean DLean D	R+1	—
HD-123D flipD flip	● Bill Mecca● David RutiglianoINC	81%19% 91%9%	D+6.9D+13.1	Likely DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-124	● Andre BakerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+52	—
HD-125D flipD flip	● Meredith Tobitsch● Tom O'DeaINC	96%4% 99%1%	D+16.2D+27.1	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-126	● Fred GeeINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+51	—
HD-127	● Marcus BrownINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+47	—
HD-128	● Christopher RosarioINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+52	—
HD-129	● Steven StafstromINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+51	—
HD-130	● Antonio FelipeINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+53	—
HD-131	● Heather Stafford● Arnold JensenINC	11%89% 21%79%	R+8.7R+7.7	Likely RLean R	R+15	—
HD-132	● Jennifer LeeperINC● Carol Pontrelli	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.7D+33.6	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-133	● Cristin McCarthy VaheyINC● Lisa Miro	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.5D+38.4	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-134	● Sarah KeittINC● Ken Astarita	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.5D+30.1	Solid DSolid D	D+24	—
HD-135	● Anne HughesINC● Darrell Harris	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.8D+37.0	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-136	● Lee Goldstein● Douglas Ouellette	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+45.7D+52.5	Solid DSolid D	D+47	—
HD-137	● Kadeem RobertsINC● Tricia Ciccone	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.3D+39.7	Solid DSolid D	D+33	—
HD-138	● Kenneth GuckerINC● Irving Fox	98%2% 96%4%	D+16.7D+18.0	Solid DSolid D	D+10	—
HD-139	● Larry PembertonINC● Brandon Sabbag	99%1% 96%4%	D+18.3D+17.3	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
HD-140	● Travis SimmsINC● Enrique Santiago	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+51.8D+57.7	Solid DSolid D	D+51	—
HD-141D flipD flip	● Erika Procaccini● Tracy MarraINC	96%4% 99%1%	D+16.8D+28.9	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-142	● Lucy DathanINC● Donald Mastronardi	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.5D+36.6	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
HD-143	● Dominique JohnsonINC● Greg Helms	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.1D+38.2	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-144	● Hubert DelanyINC● Layne Rodney	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.3D+39.0	Solid DSolid D	D+32	—
HD-145	● Corey ParisINC● Andrew Krill	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.0D+42.1	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
HD-146	● Eilish Collins MainINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+33	—
HD-147	● Matt BlumenthalINC● Carola Cammann	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.1D+35.8	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
HD-148	● Jonathan JacobsonINC● Ensly Maizo	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.9D+38.0	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-149D flipD flip	● Amiel Goldberg● Tina CourpasINC	97%3% 99%1%	D+16.6D+27.5	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-150	● Steve MeskersINC● Jonathan Goldstein	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.0D+28.1	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-151	● Hector ArzenoINC● Michael Mason	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+25.0D+28.1	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.